The URL can be used to link to this page

00. Agenda CUPEIQ1NO AGENDA CUPERTINO CITY COUNCIL - REGULAR ADJOURNED MEETING 10350 Torre Avenue, Community Hall, Council Chamber Tuesday, January 31, 2006 1:00 p.m. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE ROLL CALL ORAL COMMUNICATIONS This portion of the meeting is reserved for persons wishing to address the council on any matter not on the agenda. Speakers are limited to three (3) minutes. In most cases, State law will prohibit the council ITom making any decisions with respect to a matter not listed on the agenda. GOAL SETTING WORK SESSION I. Council discussion: Goals and Interests 2. Staff presentation: Organization and Work Program 3. Council Work Program for 2006 and beyond 4. Public comments ADJOURNMENT In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), the City of Cupertino will make reasonable efforts to accommodate persons with qualified disabilities. If you require special assistance, please contact the city clerk's office at 408-777-3223 at least 48 hours in advance of the meeting. COUNCIL GOALS STUDY SESSION DISCUSSION January 31, 2006 1 :00 PM - 2:00 PM Council Members Discussion: Goals and Interests · Why I chose to run for a Council seat? · What are my expectations for outcomes during my term of office? · What are my main interests regarding City policies? · What things does the City do well? Not so well? · What, if any, changes in direction are needed? 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM Staff Presentation - Organization and Work Program · Roles - Synchronizing Council, Commissions and Staff · The Functional Organization · Work Program and Status of Projects 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Council Goals for 2006 and Beyond 4:30 PM - 5:00 PM Public Comment I T B I 2006 City Council Goal Setting Session January 31,2006 I CUPElQ1NO ROLES · POLICY: (Council/Commissions) · MANAGEMENT: (Senior Staff/Division Mgrs) · PROFESSIONAL: (Operations, Program & Maintenance Staff) Ge- ,/3dolo ROLES AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE COMPONENTS OF CITY GOVERNMENT CHARACTERISTICS · AUTHORITY · STRUCTURE · WORK MODE · SUCCESS MEASURES AUTHORITY STRUCTURE POLICY MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONAL POLICY MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONAL Election Functional Certification Representative Organizational Collegial Consent of position in Competence Participative hierarchy Functional Governed Hierarchy Autonomy teams 1 WORK MODE SUCCESS MEASURES POLICY MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONAL POLICY MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONAL Voting Rationality Customer Making equity Efficiency and Quality of Persuasion Info Processing specific of competing Effectiveness service and Negotiation Conflict Prob. Solving demands product resolution Production Voter approval ROLES AND CHARACTERISTICS """""" MANAGEMENT PROFFSSJONAL AurnoRITY Election Functlon8l Certificmlon Con5entofthe pos/tionin COII'IpRIence Governed hlerllrcby Autonomy STRUCTURE Rep<eSenbotÎYe OrgIonlzational Collegial P.rtiçipative Hlerlln:hy T_. WORKIIfODE Voting ........" Customer$pe<:ifi Perswlsion InfomJHlonProcusing Problem SolvÎng Negotiation COfIfIktRuolulion Production SUCCESS Equity of compe1ing Effic:¡"ney almlityof Servlr: MEASURES demands .ndEthldivilnsss .ndProduct VotI!rAppn;Jval EXAMPLE: SCHOOL SITE PLAYFIELD MAINTENANCE BY CITY · POLICY: · City Council approves concept for City to maintain school grounds in exchange for use by intramural athletics · Council approves $7S0,OOO budget to fund this program · Considers Management recommendations for implementation ROLES IN CITY GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS POLICY MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONAL EXAMPLE: SCHOOL SITE PLAYFIELD MAINTENANCE BY CITY · MANAGEMENT: · City Manager and Department Head(s) negotiate contract with school district, authorize the hiring of appropriate staff positions · Department Head(s) and Division managers hire and assign staff and acquire equipment and other necessary resources · Supervise implementation program 2 EXAMPLE: SCHOOL SITE PLAYFIELD MAINTENANCE BY CITY . PROFF""rONAL Maintenance and operations staff assembles resources and carries out assignments for maintaining the school playfields . Professional staff workers provide feedback to Management during implementation phase for any necessary adjustments needed from management ROLES IN CITY GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS The resources needed to achieve the goals are built into the annual budget, which is then prepared in late spring for review in May and public comment in June ROLES AND CHARACTERISTICS "º""" MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONAL AUTHORITY Ellldion Functional Certifkation Consenlotthe -'" Competence Go....... hienrdly Autonomy STRUCTURE Repnsenww. Of'ganizalional <:<IllIIyial Participative Hierarchy T_ WORK MODE Voting Rationality CustomerSpecif Petsuasion Information Processing Problem Solving -- Conflict Resolution Produ<:tion SUCCESS Equity of competing Etfk;1It"o;:y Quality of Servit:: MEASURES demands .ndEtfecllveness and Product VoœrApprow.I Each year in January, the City Council reviews progress made on prior calendar year's goals and develops a new work plan for the coming year Service Versus Resources Sluggish local economy State of California raids New facilities and infrastructure (Teen Center, Library, Community Hall, Senior Center, San Tomas Trail) have generated increased maintenance costs Difficult issues encompassed by the General Plan Reduced staffing levels Gap between needed and available resources 3 Expenditure Control and Productivity City-wide hiring freeze was implemented Community Development Department was especially hard hit with a 50% vacancy rate: - At the low point in staffing, the department scored an 85% satisfaction level among users 3% salary cut and unpaid furlough days Cali Mill Plaza demonstrates the City's new practice of having developers pay for park maintenance Continuous Effort Collaboration with other agencies $14 million in grants successfully obtained by Parks and Recreation and Public Works: - Stevens Creek Corridor Trail and Mary Avenue Pedestrian and Bike Bridge - $50,000 grant for City's Medical Reserve Corps Accolades Three Helen Putnam A wards since 2004 The City's outreach to the community has never been stronger Neighborhood Watch has grown from 62 to 82 groups Block Leader Program won an award at this year's Public Infonnation Officials conference Once again, Cupertino was designated a "Very Low-Cost City" Continuous Effort The financial challenges will not be addressed by a single solution Productivity improvements through technology - E-Services Access Cupertino continues to grow Availability of forms on the City web site has increased significantly UPERTINO COMMUNITY HALL . 4 Ongoing Operations Parks and Recreation Blackberry Faml - Picnic Grounds · Over 60,000 visitors · More than 40 events serving over 9,000 meals - Golf Course · Over 60,000 rounds of golf FISCAL STRATEGIC PLAN The goal of the Fiscal Strategic Plan is to ensure a high level of service and ongoing revenue adequate to support it. Parks and Recreation Administration - Grant writing for Stevens Creek Corridor Park Three commissions - Parks and Recreation Commission - Senior Citizens Commission - Teen Commission 5 Parks and Recreation - McClellan Ranch Park a 3,000 elementary school children participated in creek education program · After school classes attracted over 500 participants · 120 high school students participated in field studies at McClellan Ranch · The Community Garden program remained popular with over 68 plots Parks and Recreation Quinlan Community Center/Cultural Division - Rentals · 305 QCC rentals · Community Hall had 64 rentals · Memorial Park facilities 83 rentals · Linda Vista Park rented 59 times · Portal Park rented 60 times - Cultural Division · 516 cultural classes were offered Parks and Recreation Senior Center - 9,281 hours in programming offered - Travel Program had 70 days of travel - Case Management Program links: frail elders and their families with the services they need - 160 Senior Center members volunteer and logged in 15,000 volunteer hours - There were J 9 rental contracts 6 Parks and Recreation Sports and Fitness Division - 8,000 tennis lessons - J ,000 to adults - Variety of fitness classes - Summer Learn to Swim Program - 80 teams play adult softball Parks and Recreation Y outhfTeen Division - Summer camps-lOcamps offered - Playgrounds · 202 youths registered for the drop-in playground program offered in five sites - After school Enrichment Program · 764 participants in spring 2005 Parks and Recreation - Teen programs · 462 teens registered at Teen Center · Nine middle school dances serving 2.591 participants . · Teen volunteer program wÎth 24 teen enrolled · Mobile Skate Park ~ Preschool programs with 237 participant'\ 7 Public Works - Civil Engineering - Development/Geotechnical - Traffic Engr. & Systems Opns. - Parking/Administration Capital Improvement Program Design and Construction Mgmt Environmental MgmtlSolid Waste Facilities MaintenancelRepair - School GroundsIParkslMedians - StreetslStreet Trees/Pavement Mgmt FleetMtcelSignShoplStreetLighting Public Works ActivitiesIDemand - Streets: 380 Lane Miles - 55 Traffic Signals - $16+ Million Capital Projects - 3300 Street Lights 14,OOOStreeltrees 13 major facilities 52 acres of schoolyards 155 motorized vehicleslequip - 32 acres ofmedloverpass landscaping Service centerlMtrls slorageIHamuù Public Works . STAFF: 66 Positions 7 Vacancies (II%) 8 9 10 Community Development Planning Commission General Plan Specific plans Zoning ordinance updates Design and land use reviews of proposed development applications Redevelopment Agency and Economic Development functions Community Development Block Grant Program Planning Division worked on the following projects: - Hewlett Packardffoll Bros site on Stevens Creek Blvd/Finch - Vallco Fashion Park residential units and retail space and 16 screen theaters - Peet's Coffee and Paoem Bread building - Town Center/Civic Park residential and commercial mixed-use site - Taylor Woodrow proposal to construct 94 homes on former Measurex site - Capital Improvement Program Environmental Review Community Development Support numerous committees and commissions - City CouncH, Planning Cornm., Design Review Corum., Housing Comm., Environmental Review Committee, and Economic Develop. Comm. Support other departments by providing development and environmental reviews for city initiated projects . Long range planning - General Plan update - Present Task Force recommendations to City CounciVPlanning Commission - Complete approx. six months of Planning Commission hearings - Complete zoning ordinance updates (R 1 single family) - Update plans( draft Crossroads Streetscape Plan) 1 1 Housing Programs - Implement the CDBG program - Adopt CDBG Citizen Participation Plan - Adopt the Consolidated Plan - Award CDBG sub-recipients grants for 2005/06 program year - Nexus study updated proposed fees increases for the housing mitigation program Redevelopment Program - Redevelopment of Vall co Fashion Park Building Division - Process and plan checked building pennits applications (2,155 rrom 1,990 in 2003/04 - 8% increase) - Conduct inspections (19,300 compared to 16,400 in 2003/04 - 18% increase) - Building valuation equaled $148 míl1ion in FY 0/05 - up from S 119 million in FY 03/04 (24% increase) 12 13 Sheriffs Office Criminal activity - 24% decrease in crimes against persons in FY 04/05 - In 04/05, property crimes decreased 11% - There was a 10"10 decrease in commercial, institutional, vehicle and residential burglaries Traffic Activity - In FY 04/05, 534 traffic collisions - Moving citations increased by 26%, warnings increased 7% Sheriffs Office Response Times ~ 11,477 calls responded to by Deputies - Goal of five minutes for Priority I, nine minutes for Priority 2. and 20 minutes for Priority 3 cans 14 . Sheriffs Office Other activities ~ Grants preparation - Calif. Office of Traffic Safety (OTS) - One time grant to operate 4 DUI checkpoints ~ One time grant to operate "Click~It or Ticket" program Sheriffs Office Other department programs - Neighborhood Watch Program . Email Community Alert Program . School Resource Officers I 15 Public Information Office Technology, Information & Communications Commission Public information and communication E·services and website The City Channel - Manage community hall audio-visual systems - City meetings and community event coverage - Emergency communication Public Information Office Access Cupertino Cupertino Scene Public Access Surveys E-mail notification Administrative Services Finance - Prepare the proposed and approved annual budget - Prepare Anona1 Report - Bi-monthly financial update reports to City Council ~ GFOA's Award of Excel1ence for the City's annual financial report - CSMFP Excellence Award for the City's annual budget 16 Administrative Services - Process over 10,000 accounts payable checks, 850 purchase order requests, 6,200 paychecks; prepared 3,700 business license renewals, processed over 1,130 new business license applications, approx. 550 invoices for false alanus and miscellaneous bil1ings - Negotiate various contracts including those for Youth Probation Officer and banking services Administrative Services Economic Development Treasury Administrative Services Information Technology - Sc~vice upgrades - Disaster Recovery Plan - Upgrade SP AM email filtering - Maintain contractual agreements with over two dozen harrlwarelsofhyare vendors - Countywide GIS Partnership Project - GIS Master Plan Document 17 Administrative Services - Established job classifications, conducted job analysis. established minimwn qualifications, prepared class specifications - Process 26 workers' compensation claims - Processed five employee retirements and four separations - Renegotiated generaJ liability, property, errors and omissions and earthquake insurance policies - Processed 22 general liability claims - Lowered IifeJAD*E and LTD rates with new vendors Administrative Services Human Resources - Schedule evaluations, provides supervisory training - Negotiate employment contracts - Quarterly labor management meetings with OEJ and CEA - Resolving grievances, conducting investigations and administering progressive discipline - Employee suggestion program - Health Însurance coverage - Administer health benefits open enrollment - Conduct 20 BEST training classes 18 Administrative Services - Elections/Initiatives · Update Candidates Handbooks - Public Infonnation and Communication · "one-stop" location on web site for agendas, minutes, and reports · Recruit for board and commission vacancies Administrative Services City Clerk - Fine Arts Commission - Council meeting minutes and agendas - Archiving of minutes for an commissions - Administers the local elections - Responds to requests for records - Interoffice and U.S. mail 19 Emergency Services - Medical Reserve Corps 80 - Disaster Council/Citizen Corps Council 70 - Monthly refresher for CERT graduates 700 - Bi~monthly meetingS for CERT, CARES and MRC - Support the Cupertino Amateur Radio Emergency System (CARES) 80 - Volunteer first aid stations and communications fOf community events - Kaleidoscope Public Safety Camps 250 - Personal Emergency Preparedness Workshop 96 - First aid and CPR classes 330 20 City Attorney's Office Prosecutions Abatements Resolutions City policies City ordinances Contracts Elections Conflicts of interest Bidding procedures lea.";cs Redevelopment agency Land use documents Housing & BMR program CDBG program Legal research and interpretation Franchise agreements City Attorney's Office Lawsuits Code Enforcement - Investigate and obtain compliance (1,234 violations in 2005) - Respond to law enforcement calls (852 in 2005) - Mark abandoned vehicles (277 in 2005) - Issue 5,190 parking citations (5,190 in 2005) - Update amended massage ordinance 21 I CUPEIQ1NO 2006 WORK PROGRAM 22 tc. 113,1/0'-' I.. '. PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS 2005 to 2015 In the FREMONT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT November 2005 Research and Report by ,. , Enrollment Projection Consultants 3 West 37th Avenue, Suite 7 San Mateo, CA 94403-4457 N , L , , Proiected Enrollments from ÞO05 to 2015 Fremont Union Hioh School District SUMMARY Enrollment in the Fremont Union High School District ("district") is projected to rise by 221 students in the twelve months to October 2006 and another 148 in the following year. That is a gain of 369 students to October of 2007. Although significant, it is well below the 615-student increase that occurred in the iast two years. The projected total has even smaller annuai changes between 2007 and 2010, for a net difference of 423 additionai students over the next haif-decade. Projections that are more than five years into the future inevitably have a wider margin of possible deviation. We are forecasting that the district enrollment could be 1,200 students above the current level in 2015, but that is too far into the future to be anything more than a good estimate. We therefore recommend focusing on the specific forecast numbers for the next five years and consider the long- range figures only in more general terms. This overall growth will not be evenly distributed among the existing attendance areas; instead, the opposite will almost certainiy occur. If creating more equal enrollments between the schools is desirable, however, then some of these differences in growth could be beneficial. The two high schools with the smallest current enrollments, Fremont and Cupertino, should have the greatest increase. Each could add over 150 students by 2008 and potentially 700+ during the next decade, unless their attendance boundaries are adjusted. By contrast, Monta Vista High, with several hundred more students than any other school, should have a declining student population after next year. And Homestead High, with the second biggest current total, could jump by 118 in 2006 but should be relatively stable thereafter. The only school that will not be evolving toward more balanced enrollments is Lynbrook. Without boundary changes or gains through intra-district attendance, Lynbrook could have a much smaller enrollment than the other schools by 2009. There are two principal reasons for these divergent trends. Within the residences that already existed in 2001, the relatively affordable neighborhoods, especially those with townhouses and apartments, have been the primary source of the enrollment growth in the high school district and its elementary "feeder" districts. Even larger numbers of students now in each of grades K-8 should soon be graduating into the high schools from those housing units. This will impact the current Fremont and Cupertino High attendance areas in particular. And the second major factor, new housing, will be concentrated in those same attendance regions. Enrollment Projection Consultants Pagei \ .I'" 7 ¿ '. , N , proiRCted Enrollments from 2005 to ro1S Fremont /inion Hiah Schaaf District TABLE OF CONTENTS Subiect Paae Summary (at start of report) Foreword 1 Chaoter on Proiected Enrollments Regional Trends and Local Expectations: The Magnet of "High Performing" Schoois District-Wide Projected Enrollments Projected Resident Student Popuiations by Existing Attendance Areas Understanding the Data in Table 2 Key Findings in The Projections by Existing School Attendance Areas 2 2 4 4 5 Chaoter on Underlvina Factors to the Proiections Recent Resident Student Population Changes in the Current Attendance Areas Understanding the Data in Table 3 Key Findings from the Data in T abie 3 Recent Resident Student Population Changes in Existing Housing Understanding the Data in T abie 4 Key Findings from the Data in Tabie 4 Average Student Grade-to-Grade Advancement Rates from Existing Housing Understanding the Data in Tabie 5 Key Findings from the Data in Table 5 Average Student Generation Rates (SGRs) from Recentiy Built Housing Projected New Housing Concluding Commentary 7 7 9 9 10 10 12 12 14 15 16 18 Appendices 19 .. Enrollment Projection Consultants Pageii '. .'~ 1 ! \ Proiected Enrollments from ~OO5 to 2015 Fremont Union Hinh School District LOCATION OF DATA TABLES Subiect Chaoter on Proiected Enrollments Table 1: Projected Total District October Enrollment, 2005-2015 Table 2: Projected Resident Student Populations by Sections of Existing Attendance Areas Chaoter on Underlvino Factors to the Proiections Table 3: Recent Resident population Trends by Current High School Attendance Regions Tabie 4: Most Significant Resident Population Trends in Existing Housing by Category Table 5: Resident Student population Advancement Rates from Existing Housing Table 6: Average Student Generation Rates (SGRs) from Recently Built Housing Tabie 7: Projected New Housing Units Aooendices A. Band C: Appendix A 1: Current Resident Student Populations vs. Attending Enrollments Appendix A2: Projected Resident Student Populations and Potential Attending Enrollments ~ Appendix 81: Detail for Table 4 on Resident population Trends in Existing Housing Appendix B2: Detail for Table 5 on Advancement Rates from Existing Housing Appendix 83, Part 1: Detail for Table 6 on Student Generation Rates in the SESD region Appendix B3, Part 2: Detail for Table 6 on Student Generation Rates in the CUESD region Appendix B3. Part 3: Detail for Table 6 on Student Generation Rates in 8MR Housing Units Appendix B4, Part 1: Detail for Table 7 on Projected New Housing in the SESD region Appendix 84, Part 2: Detail for Table 6 on Projected New Housing in the CUESD region Appendix C1, Part 1: Comparison of Births to Kindergarten Enrollments in the SESD Appendix C1, Part 2: Comparison of Births to Kindergarten Enrollments in the CUESD Appendix C2, Part 1: Projected Sunnyvaie ESD Enroilment Appendix C2. Part 2: Projected Cupertino UESD Enrollment Paae ~~~ 3 6 8 11 13 16 17 19 20 21-23 24-26 27 28 29 30 31-32 33 34 35 35 r' f; ¡' Enrollment Projection Consultants Pageiii , Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District FOREWORD Enrollment Projection Consultants (EPC) uses a highly detailed enrollment forecasting methodology. Each major component of the recent enrollment trends is determined and evaluated for the likelihood to continue, by degree, through the forecast period. That evaluation is based on the experience gained over the iast two decades in nearly 200 studies covering a total of more than 70 school districts. Our methodology is based on the use of numerous "planning areas". In our first study for a client district. we will drive virtually every street to learn the community and divide it into suitable areas for trend analysis purposes. Each of those areas will represent a singie dominant housing type wherever feasible. including by subjective price ranges and average home and parcel sizes. We have found that even subtle differences in residential type and value can generate very divergent enrollment trends in some districts. Once the planning areas are established, there are several additional steps required to determine the recent student population trends. The street address ranges within those areas are identified through further fieldwork and en1ered into a "GIS" (Geographic Information System) electronic street index. (This fieldwork is necessary because all commercially available GIS indices are full of errors.) Student enrollment records from October of the current and immediately preceding school years are obtained from the relevant districts and processed into a format compatible with the GIS program that we use (I.e. SchooIVision). That processing includes correcting identifiable student address errors such as street name misspellings. incorrect street types (for instance, "Way" rather than "Place") and inverted street numbers (e.g. 1150 rather than 1510). The revised student addresses are then coded against the by- area street index. Counts are made of the number of students by grade in each area in every year. The final data preparation step is to aggregate those counts by larger locations, housing types and (interpolated) income leveis. This process in the Fremont Union High School District resulted in the creation of 447 planning areas that were then aggregated into both (a) trend findings by over a dozen categories of established residences and (b) a determina1ion of the rates at which students have been generated by recently built housing. The recent and projected student populations In each of these areas can be accessed by the district using the School Vision Software program. This allows the district to see not only the counts of existing students by potential attendance areas that might be considered, but also how each population is likeiy to evolve in those regions in subsequent years. Appreciation is due to planners Trudi Ryan and Clddi Wordell in the Cities of Sunnyvale and Cupertino, respectively, for information that they provided on new housing. They each met with us to discuss the probable scenarios on the potential sites within their jurisdictions, which together should cover well over 95% of the residential growth that will occur in this school district. All final decisions on the timing of future construction, however, were made by this demographer after extensive fieldwork combined with a review of the local political and broader housing-market situations. -- Thomas R. Wiiliams Enrollment Projection Consultants Pagel ,.. 7 L , Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont UnÎon Hiah Sr.hool District PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS There are two main chapters to this report, "Projected Enrollments" and "Underlying Factors to the Projections", each of which presents extensive data on the economically diverse region of the Fremont Union High School District (henceforth "FUHSD" or "district"). For those readers wanting a more abbreviated understanding of the projections, we recommend focusing on only the "boxed" figures in Tables 1, 2 and 3 and reading just the preceding "Summary" and the section directly below. Reaional Trends and Local EXDectations: The Maanet of "Hiah Performina" Schools The subtle but growing trend that we have noticed in recent years is that the highly rated schools and districts generally have had rising enrollments, while those that have not scored as well on the various performance tests had stable or declining totals. We have seen this in client districts throughout the Bay Area. Virtually every acclaimed "basic aid" district has larger enrollments. This is true even in those that had inconsequential amounts of new housing. By contrast, many of the more poorly funded "revenue limit" districts had lower enrollments despite having notable numbers of new dwellings. The Alum Rock Union Elementary. Franklin-McKiniey Elementary and San Jose Unified districts are examples of the iatter. Palo Alto Unified and Menlo Park City Elementary are examples of the former. Your district and the Cupertino Union Elementary feeder district take that one step further, in having gains from both existing neighborhoods and new residences. Ciearly the public is becoming more aware than ever before of the status of their neighborhood schoo is. The ready availability, through the Internet, of ratings such as the STAR test results and the No Child Left Behind "failures" has made an impact. Whiie there may not be any real difference in how well a child will learn at a schooi with a 770 rather than an 800 score, some of the public evidently perceives those distinctions as significant. The families who both want to enroll their children in public schoo is and can afford the latest housing costs are moving primarily into the attendance areas of those "best"" schoois. In any other district, they will send their chiidren to private facilities. This new pattern has major implications for your future enrollments. I doubt that I or anyone else would have projected, in 2001 or 2002, as much long-range growth for your district, or any similar district, as now appears probable. Your enrollment should continue to rise (other than with an occasional pause) over the next decade; the only issue is by what degree. Cracking down on false addressing (which some are doing to get into your schools) will help reduce that growth to some extent, but not entirely. District-Wide Prolected Enrollments The district enrollment is projected to rise significantly in the next two years, be essentially stable for the following two years, and then return to growth through the remainder of the forecast period. The expected gain for the pending school year is by 221 students. from the current (October 2005) 9,917 students to 10,138 in October 2006. An increase by another 148 students is forecast for 2007. The Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 2 \ ! .'/" Protected EnrollmRnts from 2005 to 2015 Fremont I inion Hiah School District Table 1: Projected Total District October Enroliment. 2005 to 2015 Projected Enroliment by Grade in Projected Fremont Union HSD early Grades 4-8 for ali three Relevant Total Enroliment in 9-12 by Grade, Oct. E!ementary Feeder School Districts including Special Schools & SDC 9-12 of 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 '1 12 Total 2005* 2.543 2,491 2,505 2,540 2,542 2.575 2.599 2,405 2,338 9,917 2006 2.521 2.587 2.543 2.529 2,557 2,591 2,595 2,586 2,366 10,138 2007 2.628 2,562 2,632 2.560 2,547 2,592 2.591 2,563 2.540 10,286 2008 2.579 2.673 2,605 2,646 2,580 2.575 2,592 2.558 2,516 10,241 2009 2,805 2.621 2,719 2.618 2,663 2,602 2,578 2,557 2,511 10,248 2010 2,671 2.851 2,666 2,733 2,633 2,685 2.603 2,545 2,507 10,340 201S 2,754 2,803 2.855 2.878 2,854 2.829 2,985 2,672 2,682 11,148 Total Fremont Union HSD Enrollment Change In (Compared to the Current Enrollment): One Year, to October 2006: Three Years, to October 2008: ~ ~ 4231 1,23/ Five Years, to October 2010: Ten Years, to October 2015: Real Potential Lower Total in 2006 (·1.25%) Real Potential Higher Total in 2006 (+1.25%) 10.011 10,265 Real Potential Lower Total in 2010 (-3%) Real Potential Higher Total in 2010 (+3%) 10,030 10,650 I t Real Potential Lower Total in 2015 (-6%) Real Potential Higher Total in 2015 (+6%) 10.479 11,817 Projected FUHSD students from new housing through 2010 Projected FUHSD students from new housing through 2015 163 314 .. Actual enrollment using student database files provided by all of the relevant school districts Notes: Projected amounts are based on current facilities, educational program and level of inter-district control. Enrollments anywhere within the "real potential" ranges are quite possible, with the likelihood of being more to the lower or higher end of each range dependent in part on inter-district enforcement levels (especially the extent of identifying incorrect home addressing). Enrollment Projecfjon Consultants Page 3 \ ì Proíected Enrollments from ?OO5 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District enrollment at that point should be close to 10,300. The total then declines by less than 50 to 2009 and fully rebounds in 2010, to 423 students above the current enrollment. These figures are shown in Table 1 on page 3.' This erratic growth is due mainly to the current distribution of the relevant student population in the fourth through twelfth grades, including how that population is expected to evolve. As can be seen in the first row of Table 1, there are relatively small total numbers of students presently in the eleventh and twelfth grades, at 2,405 and 2,338. Although those grades often have fewer students than are in ninth and tenth, these amounts are still proportionately smaller than would be expected based on the latest trends. The graduation of those students out of the system in the next two school years, in combination with the addition of the relatively large classes that are now in seventh and eighth (In the "feeder" districts), should cause a significant enrollment rise, as is projected. In the subsequent two years, however, the opposite occurs, with the lower totals now in grades five and six graduating into the high schools. Although this comparison of the enrollments by grade is an oversimplification of all of the analytical factors that go into these projections, it does provide a good quick insight into why the growth varies by year. Our estimate in 2015 is for more than 11,100 students, which is a gain of over 1,200, but there is a wide potential range that far into the future. If the assumptions underlying this forecast are reasonably correct, with some leeway for economic shifts as well as for different levels of control on inter-district attendance (especially for limiting false addressing), then the range is stili between about 10,500 and 11,800. Even the bottom end of that range, however, is nearly 600 students above the current total. Proiected Resident Student Poculations bv Existina Attendance Areas - This forecast is based on an analysis of where the students live (the resident population') rather than the schools they happen to attend (the attending enrollment). Resident populations differ from enrollments because of (1) attendance at special schools, (2) known intra-district enrollment (i.e. between FUHSD schools) and (3) known inter-district enrollment (i.e. from stated addresses that are outside the FUHSD). By coding all of the student addresses to planning areas that represent various housing types and locations, we have been able to identify and evaluate how the student population is evolving in each situation. We flip back-and-forth between these "population" and "enrollment" amounts in the text below, and it is important to remember the distinction between these two types. Understandina the Data in Tabie 2 Table 2 (on page 6) contains, for each school. (1) resident and attending figures for October 2005 and (2) projected resident amounts in seiected future years. The first three columns of data are the actual resident and attending counts. Fremont High, for example, has an attendance area containing 1,909 "current" (October 2005) FUHSD-enrolled students. The current Fremont High enrollment, however, Is 1,824 students, for a net adjustment from resident population to attending enrollment of a loss of 85 , Whenever just a year is listed in the text. such as 2010, the reference is for early October of that year. , Resident" throughout this report means physical resident. not legal resident. Enrollment Projectíon Consultants Page 4 , L d" , Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District students. This is the "-85" provided under the "Attending Adjust" column in the tabie. The "Speciai Schools" (Community Day, New Start, Middle College and Horizons) do not have a resident population because they are open to students from throughout the district region. All figures exciude Adult Ed. The middle columns of the table provide the projected resident student popuiations for each attendance region. These are not projected enrollments. They do indica1e, however, the extent to which the current attendance areas may continue to be suitable, especially for the next three years, without any changes. Again using Fremont High as an example, the resident population rises from the current 1,909 to 1,951 in 2006; 2,058 in 2007; and 2,073 in 2008. Whether that translates into similar gains in attendance, however, will depend on district policies on intra- and inter-district enrollment. The columns on the right side of Table 2, under "Projected Resident Student Population Change to October of", summarize the extent of these population shifts. The projected Fremont High change, for instance, is a gain of 42 for next year and 164 over three years, as is shown in the top row of the "box". Kev Findinos in the Praiections bv the ExistinÇl School Attendance Areas The only dramatic resident change for the pending school year is the rise by 118 at Homestead. That is due primarily to the combination of a small graduating twelfth grade class and an exceptionally large incoming ninth grade population.' That increase should be short lived. with declines projected in the following three years. More modest population gains of 35 to 46 each are projected for next year at Cupertino, Fremont and Monta Vista Highs. Lynbrook is forecast for a nominal population reduction, by 21, but the desirability of that school may offset that drop through gains in intra-district attendance. Perhaps the most significant findings are that the differences in the resident populations in four of the five current attendance areas should narrow over time, with only the Lynbrook region deviating from that trend. The reguiar schools with the smallest current enrollments, Cupertino and Fremont. should have the greatest mid-term and long-run population gains. They add 186 and 164, respectively, in three years. and over 700 each in the next decade. That growth should result in the Fremont region having the largest resident population by 2015. The school with the biggest current total, Monta Vista. instead could have a decline after 2007. Eventually the populations of those three schools and Homestead could differ by only around 300 students between the smallest (in the 2300s) and largest (in the 2600s). Lynbrook is the exception. That school already has the second smailest popuiation (and third lowest enrollment) of the regular facilities. The population there is projected to decline to around 1,700 in three years (a drop by about 88 students) and under 1,400 in ten years. That wouid give it 900 iess resident students than any other current attendance area. Fortunately, this is not an imminent shift that needs to be resolved in the immediate future. , The current by-grade differences between population and attendance for each high school, along with the populations now at the feeder districts in grades 7-8, are shown in Appendix A1. We also have provided attending enrollment estimates for the pending school year in Appendix A2 (based on the current enrollment patterns), but these amounts are provided simply to help the district in staff and taciiity planning. New attending adjustments to those numbers will almost certainly be made by the district, due to capacity limitations and other factors. That will result in different actual October 2006 enrollments at the individual schools. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 5 proiected EnroflmFmts from 2005 to 2015 ::! " < " u e '" " e " '" « Õ o .c u (/J .c 0> Î g> '-r¡; ;B õ 00 e ,Q Ü " (/J .ð" 00 e o 1ã :; c. o a. ë " " ;:J (/J ë " " 'œ " 0: " " "¡j 'õ è: OJ " ~ I- '" ~ '" '" '" : d;§t =~:v ~"5.o¡g ii g. ~ ¡¡¡ 0:0.0 ",,'E .s " " ~'H", '[OO! g 0. u'" ë " 0> " '" ::loa ú5 (j)C\J N.o d;~co -cog Q) ,5 C\J " e '¡ß g a:~1'- ¡¡ ª 8 ~&C\J '2 a. 0>0' e " :a: E e_ " 0 '" ~ . <CLD '" o o ¡~~~ 13 æ ,::J o~~ <1i ~ Ü <C 1: UJ " ë " " '¡¡¡-c " ~ o:èñ '" o N <D o o N " '" (/J ~ I« OJ " u. g ë '" ~ -g ~ ~ C)« '" ... .... ... '" ~ N ... 0> ... <D Ñ ;;; Ñ '" .... o Ñ '" '" o Ñ u; "'. - ... N "'. ~ '" "i' '" o "'. ~ '" '" '" - c o E " .t N '" ':' '" '" '" ~ ~ <D '" '" Ñ <D .... o Ñ '" N Ñ 0> '" Ñ ;¡; ~ Ñ '" '" o Ñ N ... '" ... o Ñ " m 1ií " E o :I: '" ':' <D ... '" N '" Ñ ... '" '" Ñ '" o '" Ñ '" '" '" Ñ <D .... '" Ñ '" <D '" Ñ <D "i' o '" '" Ñ '" 1ií :> '" "E o ::;; '" '" .... '" ~ -r <D '" ~ '" "i' '" N N. ~ .... ;;; ~ ':' o N N L \ Fremont Union Hiah Sr.haol District N '" o. ;: o '" ~ ò - ;¡ ò '" 0> ~ Ò ~ .... ... o Ò - .... ;;; oi o 0> .... N '" oi . <1i ~ :g 00 õ õ o .c u (/J .c 0> Î c o 'E OJ ë o E " ù: " :; >- .c " " " '5 e c. 00 " õ u ~ ë " " ~ 00 0> C 'œ ~ N '" 00 " " '" Õ> ,5 00 ë. ~ 8 ë " "C ~ 00 <1i ~ 13 « . 00 " 00 00 ~ " ¡¡¡ " ~ 1ii u o ë ~ 1ii " " ~ 00 ë " " ;:J 00 ~ " e '" " u c '" " e " '" '" :g 00 '9 0; :š g> 'Ë 8 .5 ~ ,; u c '" " e " 1; ~ ~ '5 i! :š - " " ~ ".~ 00 0' " E 00 ~ ¡ 0> e '5 c " 1; .. z . . c o '6> ~ ~ c '" " c ~ '" '>- .c " :g 1ii u o ë ~ 00 " 00 00 ~ " " '" " c '" ë " .s õ E " 11 00 '9 0; :š 0> c 'Ë 8 .5 " " ~ 11 " >- " £; " 00 ~ '" Ii .c " ¡¡¡ Õ> >- .c 00 ë " .s õ E " 0> C '5 c " 1; " c '" 00 c o ~ :; c. o c. 0' " " 'œ ~ '" o o N Ii; .c ß o " ~ ~ ~-: I;· '" '" '" '" '" Ñ .... o "'. - '" '" ..... ~ .... '" <0. - .... '" "'. - '" '" "'. ~ '" '7 N '" "'. - o c 'E " c. ~ U a; "'. - « z ~ " ~ l- E g Ii; '" '5 00 <1i § .E « x '5 c " 0. 0. « " " (/J ~ õ z N N <0. - « z ë " " 'œ " ¡c . . Enroflment Projection Consultants '" o ..... - « z <D .... ..... - « z N .... ..... ~ « z '" '" "'. - N '" - o <D N '" - '" '" ..... - « z '" o o 1; c >- .J 00 õ o .c u (/J " '¡¡ " c. (/J Page 6 ,,' , Proiected Enrollments fram 9.005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District O Q) ~ « f c O -0 C ~ ~ c ~ ~ :1 Ü >- .a <f ~ c Q) -0 :1 ~ CI) o CI) :I: :::> u.. ~ c Q) -0 .¡¡¡ Q) a:: -0 Q) 1:5 Q) "õ' ~ D.. -0 C O ~ C Q) o Q) a:: N Q) :ä O I- ~ .g t O .s:: Ü '" ~ 0 N ..,. ~ 0 N (') ~ 0 N N ~ 0 N ~ ~ 0 N 0 ~ 0 N '" 0 0 N Õ 00 ~ " 0 .c 0 0 N Ü ,.... 0 0 0 N 00 0 0 N '" 0 0 N ..,. 0 0 N (') 0 0 N N 0 0 N ~ 0 0 N 0 0 0 0 0 0 <D. ..,.. N. ~ ~ ~ ..,.5 .. .. ëSS: 0111.. E " - " E c: ~ 0 0 u..:I:::!E II o "'" c: 0 :e e " .c Q. c: :;¡ >- U..J ¡ I \ \ \, ) ',. ',: '\ 1\ ¡\ o o 00 Ñ o o <D. N o o ..,. Ñ o o N Ñ o o o Ñ o o 00. ~ S1uapn~s Enrollment Projection Consultants Insert between Pages 6 and 7 '. /.. ì L \ , I- e " L \ projected Enrollments from ;)005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District UNDERLYING FACTORS TO THE PROJECTIONS The district region contains a broad range of dwelling types, price ranges and ages that requires a thorough analysis to make accurate projections. As was mentioned in the "Foreword", the trends within each of those situations were determined by analyzing the student populations in numerous pianning areas. A total of 447 such areas were created for this study. Data at that level of detail, however, can be hard to convey in a comprehensible manner. The following text therefore focuses instead on the aggregate findings. Those readers wanting a more thorough understanding of the current situation can find additional data in the appendices. Recent Resident Student Poculation Chances In the Current Attendance Areas The student populations have grown to varying degrees since 2001 in the current attendance areas.' This is true both within grades 9-12 and for the K-8 populations in the feeder districts for those same high school regions. For the FUHSD students (i.e. grades 9-12), that four-year increase ranged from less than 100 additional resident students in the Fremont region to nearly 200 In Cupertino and Lynbrook and over 300 for Homestead and Monta Vista. The magnitude of increase between these regions, however, was somewhat different within the K-8 populations. The Monta Vista region, for instance, actually added fewer students In the nine elementary district grades (272) than In just the four high school grades (335). These findings, including the changing amounts by individuai high school grade, are shown in Table 3 on page 8. Understandino the Data in Table 3 Most of Table 3 should be self-explanatory. These figures represent the resident populations of the students enrolled in the FUHSD and the three elementary feeder districts according to the current high school attendance areas. Assembling the data in this manner allows us to compare how the student populations have evolved within the same locations, regardless of what school they attended. Figures summarizing these population shifts are provided on the right side of Table 3, under the headers "Total... Change Since Oct. of" for the grade ranges K-8 and 9-12. There are two columns under each of those grade-range headers. The "Prev. Yr." (Previous Year) column shows the annual change in the total. In the Fremont High attendance region, for example, the 9-12 population rose by 18 between 2001 and 2002. Another 39 students were added in the following year, for a two-year Increase of 57. That cumulative amount is shown in the "Total 9-12 Change Since Oct. of ... 2001" column. In the next two years this high school population fell by 22 and rebounded by 44, for an aggregate gain between 2001 and 2005 of 79 resident students. The latter finding is considered the most significant for each attendance region and has been "boxed in bold" accordingly. Of only slightly less importance is the aggregate change that has occurred since 2001 in K-B, so those numbers have been "boxed" as well, but not in bold print. 4 As previously noted. whenever just a year is stated. such as 2001, the reference is for October of that year. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 7 '. ,.. , , Proiected Enrollments from :JOGS to 2015 ~ ~ '" g æ¡õN fi'rl ",0 "78>: '" c ](ñ~ ~ c: - 00 c .2 '" " a: ~ " c " " c ~ :i õ i' " en ~ '" J: <D 0 '" ¡;¡ ffiõ ~~ u u ",0 ~~): _ c ~ êñ ~ f- a: ~ '" .9'1. IJ!!m c ~ 0'" ·2.!:2 ","0 ë Q¡ N 0" ~ E æ ~'::- u- C c ~ :;53;: Æ ~ ~Qj ~ ~ ~ ë.c " - "0 " ~~ û5;m _C o " $õ C ';:: g§ UO ëõoo ~i3~ '¡ß~ a: ë ~ 5 u È 00 " c " >= c o ro õ 0. o a. ë " " ~ iií ë " " ,¡; " a: ë ~ " ~ a: '" " :i5 " f- ~õ :; - UJ " o 1"-1.O'ãi "'''',... ~~~l t"'J1'--õ) I"-I"-~ r.Dt-..vN "'... '" Oool"-\J1m (")vCOlDO co_oo_oo.co. m. ..-..-..- ..- "...-f'-..C\lU") voo'<tmOO '<t<:t'<tC')'<t <oOI.ON"¢ 0(0 ..-U') \J1vv\J1'<t NI"-r--COV ~;~~~ 1.0000(')(.0 ;~~~~ C\loolOm..- (000(')(")0 t"'J("),¢'<t1O lrj li"J" l/'Ï I.fÏ li"J. ...-N¡;;<)'<tli"J 88888 NNNNC\J " " < " " c " " c " :i ë 1! ~ u .c '" :;: ë o E ~ ,¡ .....(")':;' ~...... ~"'''' - ~<õæ5 ~ ~ ll)'<tm ",o~ "'.... ~ooO>~ ..-co~ o>NMC\J(') 0)li"J..-.....'<t (0.1"-"00"0).0 ..-..-..-..-N O)C1.Il"-m(O cnt"'JO'J(.Oc:<':I (")"¢(")'<t'<t ffi'<too~~ -.r::;t"¢.....U"I ,,1.0.....(")'0:1'" ~~~~~ ~t$;o;~<õ v'<t.....li"J1J') .......-O'JooC'1 ..-U"l(')"-('I') ..-C\JC')l[) 1.0 ~..¡..¡ .,t" .¡ ..-N(')vl.( ggg8g NNNNN .c '" :;: " " .!i 00 ~ E o :x: oo"'-~ "''''''' ~"'''' oooC':l~ tOmO¡-'" ~ ~ ~1! "''''''' 000<000 (OvC'?N If)\l}C'')CDO Q'J1.()1.()li"JC') .,...C\(")vl.O ÑN'ciN Ñ tOo..-Nt"'J u;~f2t?;~ ..,.cnC'JOO> l,{)(")oo(.ON I,{)I.OI.OLOCP O)cotOCPO C'Joor--'<TO> LtJL.{}LtJtOtO (OcoC')ooOO \XI¡-..CDI'--I,{) LOU1CP(OCP (.O<.OVOQ,) r--t"'JCON'<t U')I'--I'--OOOO v"~ v-'<t' "<to" .....N{").....LO ggggg NC\lNNN .c '" :;: S <D '> ~ o :; ~ .....7õ v, '" '" - ~ mC\lo¡:::' OOLtJ'<t1.O o'<t-:;r ~u:'~ a:>C\ltOro ~'9t"'J~ "<t"{")I.OI.ON <DOY1O'J1.O C":!."<t'.'<t.v.1.() ............... ..... ~~~rD~ OOC")C\I(")C') lõ~~::gf8 C")C'?C")(")C") ...-m 00 to co N"¡-"'OOO C")t"'Jt"")t"'J"¢ cnl'--(O'<t(") (,(I 1'--0) m 0 t"'Jt"'Jt"'Joo"<t' .....00..........1.0 I.()C\J(Qml.O 000>0'1"- v·..,fcticri"¡ ;;C\lC'?'<t1.O 08888 NNNC\lC\I .c '" :;: o c i 0. ~ U Fremont Union Híah School District ~~'i' ~ "'.. ..'" ..;:;; ~ - ~ ~~(õ - '": t"'Jooã5 1";-c.ÇJ...-",;- ¡;;- ... '" (()C\lO '" ;; ~ ¡- "''''''' I.OCOV~ (')OIt'JI'-- ,....Nt"'JN N t"'Jõ) ,...~,... to m..-. - - t"'Jcn_<D ......m"<t'CO v...-NC\I ..-<DN<.Or-- :;g:gæ;ZCñ a:Saiaiai 0)' Q,)I.OCO....ro C\lo>ml.CJOO NNONt"'J ÑÑN"N"C'J comv"<t'" 1.0 c;:;~g~!if ciÑNNN· 1.0 co co a::> 00 tDoom.....m ,....C\lt"'J'o:I'" 1.0 ÑC\ÏC\I~NN' OtO<:'\It"'JLO "<t'"vCf)(Q1'-- t\Jt"'JvLOLO N-C\ÏNÑci ~~~~~ C'JooOC\lLO ~~~~~ ....Nt"'J~1.O 88888 C\lNNC\lC\! ""' œ 13 ~~ 2'6 0.- ~ C œ ~ : (I > 'E to <D ~~ ~ ia <D õ"05 ~~~ W"ü "ij.aQ.. õ(lUJ .... ~g Enrollment Projection Consultants "'''' 0'" "'''' ¡::, ~~~ - I.CJOvooC"J m"<t'"(,(It--.OJ 1t'J.r.D_{D.I'--.f'-... .....,................ ~~~o~ t"'Jt"'JC")"<t'"'<t <OcoC")oo,.... 000 OIt'J ('\ ~{")~'<:f'''¢ ool'--OIt'JN ~!if:;~~ t:J~~t!~ v'<t"¢'<t"¢ «IOC"J"<tf'-. 0).....01.0..... «10........ N ("). cti ri cr5 ~'" 00 00 "'''' "'..'" 888 "''''''' .c 01 :;: .. ª .Q C 3' O'<t"¢Ñ ¡-.......If'7 «ILOI.CJLOr-- ~Ç:;::~c:D ~a;~ffi~ - ~~gæ~ ~æ~m;:: c:;æo~~ ~;:b;;¡~ (")"<t'"{")C')C') ....Nt"'J"<tLtJ 88888 C\lC\lC\lC\!N (I _ c"r;- "E jg.2.Š ~; &~ a~o-o $(1.1"'"9 13~:I:~ ,_ '0::> ~-gu-12 ÕQ)~':: ~ E - E .$O~IO .E:: '00 $ ~~ §-g 'E ~ ~ 1i 8 ~ 10 Q) .E Page 8 ¿ ~ ;¡¡ '6 ro ~ £! ë ~ " .¡¡; ~ " :; ro .- ~ ~ " " " ~ Õu) '~ ~ ~,g ð,o ;¡:o... en~ 0" UJ~ <D§ ü~ o ~ en'" UJ ::¡ o '" ~:g ~ " 'E,iQ 0.0 :;:~ :5 ~ H 00 ~ ëia " ~ ª m 0>- c£ " " ",œ .S VI -gE ~~ "" õ ~ c~ -g~ ~:õ ë c ~ " 8~ E g¡ œ]/ ~ :ß ~"§ ~ü ia.s: ~-æ ~õ ~~ L ..~. , Pc' Fremont nlon HI h choolOi I t Kev Findinas from the Data in Table 3 The recent range of increase between your attendance areas is actually more balanced than our recent findings elsewhere. Many districts have significant population gains and losses occurring simultaneously in different parts of their community. The bigger issue in the FUHSD is probably the different rates of increase between K-8 and 9-12. As was noted above, there was actually a smaller population increase in K-8 than 9-12 for the Manta Vista area. The percentage change was a gain of 6% in K-8 compared to 15% in the high school grades. That is a significant difference. It indicates the rise in the high school population was a grade- distribution "bubble" that may soon pass' A similar growth disparity occurred in the Cupertino High region (with an increase of just 104 in K-8, compared to 188 in 9-12), but that area does not have such an evident current "bubble" and also will be adding numerous students from new housing. The latter. will more than offset any decline that might otherwise have been suggested. The most divergent trend was in students listed at addresses from outside the FUHSD region. That population fiuctuated between 331 and 411 for students enrolled in the Cupertino and Sunnyvale elementary districts, but was only down by ten students from 2001 to 2005. In the high school grades, however, it fell from 248 to just 87 this year. Most of the current, greatly reduced 9-12 total is teachers' children and twelfth graders enrolled under "senior privilege", whereby students who lived and were enrolled in the FUHSD in grades 9-11 were allowed to continue being enrolled for their final year, even though they had moved out of the district. This 161-student drop in incoming inter-district attendance theoretically means that the resident total grew by that much more over the last four years (i.e. by over 1,100 rather than just the 966 in total enrollment, which is shown in the bottom right corner of Table 3). We cail this theoretical, however, because there is an unknown number of false-addresses included in these resident counts. Recent Resident Student Population ChanQes in ExistinQ HousinQ As was previously noted, the district region was divided into numerous planning areas so that we could evaluate the population changes that are occurring, both by housing category and iocation. Each of these areas was created to represent a single dominant dwelling situation (Le. "category") wherever feasible. Maps showing the areas have been provided to the district. The trends discussed in this "existing housing" section are based on aggregations of the student counts that have been determined by planning area, excluding those areas where new homes have been built since 2001.6 Student population counts have been identified by severai categories of established residences in each of the two main feeder districts. These categories come from our standardized, but nonetheless subjective, dwelling classificatión system. The counts for each category were compiled separately for the Sunnyvale (SESD) and Cupertino _Union (CUESD) elementary district regions because of trend . This indication is supported by the smaller number of public-school students now in each of grades 7-8 (under 600) than in 9-11 (averaging 659) in the Manta Vista region (see Appendix A 1). Even after factoring in the recent 4% population increase between eighth and ninth, this should resuit in lower ninth grade populations (but perhaps not enrollments) in the immediate future. 6 A couple of the larger estaiülished areas with a few new homes added on vacant "in/ill" lots are included in these existing-housing-only figures. Note that these classifications are for the dominant category in each planning area; a 1ew housing units of other types andlor non-residential uses are present in some a-reas. Enrollment projection Consultants Page 9 Proiects nrollmen fro 0 5 to Fre ont nion Hi differences that are occurring. Many of those categorie. s by district however d'd t h . , , I no ave a sufficient presence to generate any type of meaningful trend analyses in the student Population An ex I· "H' h t I " d. . amp e IS Ig es ~come etached homes In the Sunnyvale district. These have been combined with the closest adjacent category for analytical purposes. The result is 16 categories (eight within each of the SESD and CUESD areas) by which the population trends in existing housing have been studied. Those groupings are sho:,n in Appendix 81. Additional aggregation of that data was made to make the figures even more sUitable for trend analysis and report Presentation Purpose a· h . . .51 S· IS S own In Tables 4 and 5 and Appendix 82. .! _. -- -.. .-- J 1 .,::! Understandina the Data in Table 4 Table 4 (on page 11) summarizes our findings within the groups of all existing slngle-family-detached (SFD) and attached (ATT, including apartments, condos, townhouses and duplexes) housing. The oniy specific category shown within those groupings is for the "Most Affordable" attached units. The key items to note are the same as in Table 3: foremost is the total change since 2001 in grades 9-12, which is "boxed in bold" in the table, followed by the difference in K-8 during that time, which is also . "boxed" (but not in bold). The year-to-year change is provided as well for 9-12. This shows whether the direction of change has been steady or varying (i.e. consistently negative or positive, or a mix of negative and positive). . i ] Kev Findinas from the Data in Tabie 4 There are some extraordinary differences in the trend findings between both (1) the feeder district regions, especially for what occurred in K-8 versus 9-12, and (2) the primary housing types. To start with, the 9-12 population from these existing dwellings grew by 939 (i.e. 525 SFD plus 414 ATT) in the CUESD section but only 112 in the SESD part. That is more than an eightfold difference in growth between two regions that have less than a four-to-one ratio in student population. And within strictly the detached homes, the amount of 9-12 increase in the CUESD region (525) was over 17 times that of the SESD (30). Clearly, 'at the high school level, turnover of existing SFD residences is generating more net additional students in the CUESD than the SESD region. A completely different situation is occurring in grades K-8. The SESD region added a net of 63 K-8 students trom SFD dwellings. That is just over a two-thirds of the K-12 gain (93), which is the same ratio as that between nine eiementary and four high school grades. In the CUESD area, however, the K-8 population in detached homes actually went down by 106 students. This was our most surprising finding. To lose 106 in K-8 and gain 525 in 9-12 during the same time period is unusual. For that to happen in as highly acclaimed an elementary district as Cupertino's was even more unexpected. ] 1 Some, but not all. of that difference can be explained by a population "bubble" that is now in the high school grades. Whereas there was a slight concentration in the elementary grades in 2001, there are now over 100 more students per grade, on average, at the high school level (1,300) than in K-8 (1,186) from these SFD homes. This suggests that the growth in 9-12 has "peaked" from within these residences in the GUESD. It shouid soon decline (as has been projected). Enroflment projection Consultants Page 10 , \ L ./ \ Proiected Enmllments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont I inion HiGh School District '" C; ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "E " " 0 "'- N " "en Ü Q) .'3 ~ " 0 " en " "j¡ - " "J:: '" -1JU "1 "' '" ., 0> N i'! .¡¡; " æ '" '\' I'- <0 I'- "'0>'" ., I'- '" ., '" :¡: '" ., I'- 0; '" ~ ~ '" ~ '" 0 "' '" '" '" ., '" ., 0> 11) .2 '" ';- ~ '" ~ ';- '" 0:-'; >- Ê ~ª '" " ë 0 ~ do 0 ·5 '" 0.. '" " 0 è: !!J 'Ë '" Q) ." 0 1ii " " 0 C"Jf.DOl"-- '" '" '" 0> '" '" '" ., 0> '" 0 '" ~",I'- '" '" 0 '" <0 "' O)(f)QC\I '" X '" Æ Õ '" '" o........C\I '" ., '" '" '" ., I'- I'- 0 '" <0 I'- "''''"' 0> :¡: 0 '" "' 0 mO)C"JC\J .J!1S I;; ë "{C\J.C\t"L "'. ., ., ., ., ., '" <0 I'- I'- I'- <0 1'-"'0 ., ., ., "' I.Df"'-,O'IO ~ Coo ë " ~ ................ ~ .; -.;f~ "'fA Iii ,r; ~~.....C\Í Ñ -.c " '" " d> ,,- " E " .5 ~ .~ .¡¡; ,,- ZW x '" Q) Q) '" a: 15. Q) >- " æ '" ~ '" u ~ ~ ~ u ~ " '" ¡¡; "'~ '" ¡,; " ,,0 i'! ,ñ qj~~ ë '" " Q) 0 "0 Q) E '" I a: . " C; 1:: .5 '" co g-.s: '" " ~a..U) 0 §-§ .5 '" :ø I;; . Co Q).c x I"--VC')..- 0 C')I'-C'?C'J C; ocoN"<t '" ....1,/')........ "' 0> 0> "' :;; '" ..;toco..- '" '" '" " w Õ '" '" ....co........ '" C')C')O')O <DOCO""" ~ COND'=" I'- oo '" 0 oo OGOvo ~ E " '" .5 I;; ë '" r-..I'--COCO I'- N.N_N_ "<t. ". coO')mo f'-.'-..f"-(D '" '" '" '" '<t'(!)CO..- '" Q) 0 Q) Q) C'iN"C\iC\i Ñ ..-..-,... .,.... ....:.,......;C\J" ",. 6g~~ 0 '<t'-"<t-V-LO- ,r; _J:: '" '" Co"" " 5~ .E ~ 0) :: .- " " - W 0" Q) ZW _ 0 ,:: CD .-.;:: " .~ ~ ~ .2 \1:1 C'- Õ "C.- !J ¡¡ Q) E '" "5 >-- 0 '" '" ., "' 0 '" '" ., "' C; '" '" ., "' 0 '" '" ., "' 0 '" '" ., "' 0 '" '" ., "' -a o.~ Co - Q) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 """, -'" 0 '" 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 '" " " a. w _ '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" '" £!8~ " ë 0 'E C)- Q) "" " " .- Q) " 0>" " c: :! .- ¡¡; ïn g 5 ë C; 6 .-. '0 '" " " J:: " Q) " 0 ~Q).c ,ñ '" . :¡¡ :¡¡ .c- Q) Q)I:~ Q) '" '" ~ ¡¡] 0 a: 0...... " '" " :¡¡ :¡¡ 0 g~~ ë ;;1 ª '" .E '" '" '" Q) " 0):0: " " ~ 0) - 0) 0 0)< Z- II W .- ¡¡ " g " 7ñ " .5 7ñ tõ- >. ~ :; '" ,,::'" " ÄU 0 '" = ;; 0 0) 'x < ;¡j ::ž ;ñ < ;¡j ::ž .~ « $ u; '" W ;; - . " 7ñ Q) õ '" Õ J:: '" Q) g 0 ;¡ g 0 ¿, '§ E 0 ;¡ :¡ ;¡ :¡ ;¡ Q) ::ž Q) E " " (J o.!;2) ... '" ,. m .c ¡z Q) Q) '" - " '" :¡¡ '" I~ ~~ ~ '" ·á c: u .- f- '" 'c $ ~ .;0 f- a 1= 0 1= æ -ê D w "- u. õ.~¡¡;¡ en < W < Õ E - (I) ro.9 " -- " § ~ ~ ~'§ 0 '" o g; In J!! '" " ~ ëij .92 "'" Q) 0 Q)- 1ii " (¡j II <5 E .9 > 'e 0)' '" >- Q) a Q) ~.= " 8. Cht5 ~ W..!!! " "'. 0 " " "'. en U : .. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 11 '- ,." 7 Pro" t d nr; lime ts m2 L Fr~mon nion Hi h 0 J 0" i A similar surprising determination was made in the "Most Affordable" A TT units. While that category provided the majority of the K-8 growth from all existing attached units in the SESD (with 168 out of 278 total), it was not a factor in the CUESD area. Those units instead have six less K-8 students than in 2001. To have a notabie increase in 9-12 (by 22%, in jumping from 412 to 505) and a loss in K-8, including a drop by 38 in the last year, is rare for this dwelling type. For there to be a far greater average number of students per grade in 9-12 (126) than K-8 (90) as a result, however, is inconceivable. These are tiny rundown units that normally have younger families on average, with a concentration of students in the lower elementary grades. We have never seen a ratio that is concentrated in the high school grades from a sufficiently large sample of such units. What did provide a real K-8 increase within the CUESD was all of the remaining estabiished attached residences. Those added a dramatic net of 920 K-8 students. That is a rise by more than 20% in just four years. Continuing that rate of increase over the next decade would result in more students than are conceivable from these homes. The questions are thus more "when" and "by how much" than "if" for a reduction in this degree of growth. The bottom line is that the aggregate trend findings within the SESD region seem reasonable, and realistic to potentially continue over the next decade, while many of those in the CUESD area do not. Since the latter region represents the majority of the high school district's students, this made the forecast especially difficult, and led to the wide range of potential enrollments shown in Table 1. Averaae Student Grade-to-Grade Advancement Rates from Existina Houslna Grade-to-grade "advancement" rates are calculations of the change in the number of students in each grade as they "graduate" into the next grade in the next school year. These rates are most applicable to an accurate forecast when they are determined specifically for students from existing housing. Usually such rates are averaged over the last several years within each single-grade advancement to avoid giving too much influence to nuances that may have occurred in anyone year. For this study, we determined the average over the last four years, with a slight "weighting" added for the change from 2004 to 2005. A summary of the calculated rates is shown in Table 5 on page 13, with additlonai information provided in Appendix 62. These are simply a more precise, by-grade identification of the trends discussed in the previous section. They provide us with more insight into how those changes occurred and why, and thus a better understanding of whether they can continue. Understandino the Data in Table 5 The rates entering each high school grade are shown in bold on the right side of the table. In the "All Areas of Existing SFD" group within the SESD region, for instance, the "1.06" rate entering ninth grade means that, on average, a net of 106% of the eighth grade population in one year became ninth graders a year later from the same homes. That rate (a 6% increase) is then evaluated for its likelihood to continue. by degree, in the projections. Since many of the average rates entering ninth seem excessively high (i.e. add too many students), we also calculated those rates for just the last year of change. These are shown in italics in the lower Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 12 proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 . ~ E· '-æ ,g ~ "SQ)co Eitj.9 8cr:~ "" o e> ~ " ü >- .c e> o .,¡; ~ o I e> o .¡;¡ 'x LU E ~ 00 ~ 1ii a: 1ii > ." 5 (f) to: o .c o £ ë " E ~ o o ~ "C « " " è3 ~ " "C ~ è3 o o '~ "5 0. o 0. ë ~ "C ~ iñ ë ~ "C .¡¡; ~ a: : ~ i!.s -g£~ /ñ.¡¡ ~õ~ .J¡~~ E.J¡.c :J.s¡;; =<5 ~ .5 .c ~~ã5 - ~ £~..c. :E!J)¡:::: :::g (¡j0.c S:šiE ~ ~ a: " - ~.c ~~iñ o ~ .g .c Q)o..v C>~ ~.c Iii- > E" ~,gèi3 S~"O .0 0 0 ~c:N ~ ~ oq <~ _ oo:~ o ~ Q) êij ttI g>~ ~ ttlüod:; a: 0 .S 000 ~o g'" ~ü Ijj 0.. ~>-~ ¡:( .c .~ -O! -g I- ,!;; '5. ø ~ 'x tl !!J 0 ~-g 00 ~ " o '3 ,g.De: ... >-~ ß2ca ,~lí1 g ~~...J .!!. '" '" o '" '" o '" '" o '" q ~ ~o 00 ~.,...: '" '" o '" '" o '" '" o '" '" o '" '" o '" C! - o q ~ <D q ~ ., '" o <\ ~ §.. [?]'" ..-:0 "";- ......,...: .........: o "! - ., '" o ., '" o o q ~ []J0 "'0 ó...: o ~ '" C! ~ '" o ~ '" o Iii .c Õ ;;: ~ o:¡ ~ q ~ ... "! ~ '" '" o <D q ~ '" '" o '" q ~ q ~ Fremont (JniDn Hiah School District 00 .t' o ~ ë " E 1ij 0. ~ " o «> x " ë. 5 .<2 ~ " ë. ~ " ,,; 00 ~ o .0 o ~ .<2 Ò " o o u Q ,,- " .c ~ " « " ~ i:i " .0 U ~ ;; "C 2<- 'Ë $ " Õ> o .¡¡; " o u- 'I' . ~ ~ s ;;; 00 o <3 o " .0 ~ " " 5 u ~ " ::; E "C ~ " " .,¡; o o u .~ " 1'! æ ~ '" Õ> o .¡¡; 00 £ " "C «> 0, .0 ë ,= .~ 00 " 00 o 0. 5 0. ,~ " æ 0. E o u Q ¡¡;- E~ ,g , ~8 "'s õ... " 0 ~~ ~ t5 «>0 æ ~ >-- .o'=- -g~ ~ >- ~~ .~ ~ o " 005 .~ .S "5 " o.e> o 0 o.~ _.0 o U .- "C 0 " " 00 1ii " - .0 . :æ£ .s'ii 00 05 \ijã. · . E ~ o " (f) ,,; LU æ · ~ Is ê.E ~ ø (j)~ · " £.;; .S ~ o 0 "-J'! (J)ï:: Õ ~ (fJ O'JW ~ ,~ .ª -< 5 § ~..eõ E ,~~ ,g~! . - .gQ)£ ttlE¡;;- cnttl Q) t):~ ,: .c ~Ë¿ '~,g # 1: Q) 0 ."", ~ ~~ :,~-g Q)I.¡:::E ..egO! :- ãi'~ -to: Ettie: 113 0) æ )(Q).D Q)-g ::3 ~~.c ¡" 00 '" : p Q) ~ is 05.0 ,,;" U E æ g¡ 1;; " ,S .£ ::; E u..,g ~ê ! 0 .g 00" " " .c - - 0 ",0< 0'" >Ow (t ~ <ri ;;; ~- 00 ~ Q5 "'1ii ~5J 0.0 ~.E . C> U) (D ~ >- ,,0 5JË .0 00 E ~ ,':Z1 ~ .", 0'" ';; w .c.c :2~ ~ 0 ~~Æ êii (¡; «ï <S.£W .gai~ ... ~ w C> ;;;> ;:- ~ 113 ~ .S g ~ ta êij"O ~£ ill " 00 " 000; ~m~ o E 0 ~ 0 § .- en en ooLU " 'Ew..c. ~I~ ø§-g õðše ~ ~ íi5 E - 00 ê .5 iD Q)U)~ .s ,~ èñ ..- 0:- o 0) ~ g*~ '€ ü (l) 8.0 ~ "u-"C .s~~ .!!2 ~ Q) ID ;;; ~Qo5 · · · ~ o o ~ 'ê' 0. ~ :; .E ¡¡ ë E æ ~ " ~ " .0 ~ ~ 'C o E o " ~ .0 ~ > ~ .c ~ 00 ~ .0 .... ~ " "@ " " " :; u 1ii u 1ii ~ Ü ~ " :; !! ~ o ~ o .0 00 00 .!! ~ ~ ë " E ~ u o ~ > " ~ ~ .0 .... W Õ z .n ~ :g .... '" C! - '" '" o o o ~ '" C! - .... '" o '" o - "'''' 00 00 "'''J 0" ~~ o u.. (j) C> .S ;; 'x LU Õ 00 ~ " < :;;: .!!o ~ (J ~LU o o ~ (J Enrollment Projection Consultants ... '" o '" o ~ o o ~ '" '" o '" '" o '" " ~ '" '" o '" '" o .... '" o o - '" "! - ... o - '" '" o o - '" o ~ '" o ~ "'''' 88 "'''J §~ 56 00 "'''J -.. 88 "'''J ~ ¡¡ ~ " :s = <>: - 00 o :; : « E]'" Ë]]'" ....._ '-0 ~.....: ,..;.,...: ~ '" o - ... "! - ... o - :: - 88 "'''J 0" 00 ",â: c u- (j) C> :S 00 ;¡j õ ~ ~ < ;;: o (j) OLU ,E e: ;::.2 !to ,,:::> () .... C! - .... '" o '" '" o q - '" ": ~ o - '" o ~ o o - '" '" o '" o - '" '" o o C! - '" '" o ... C! - o o o - - - :2~ ~~ 82 "'''J §~ 0'" ~~ " ¡¡ «> " g <>: - o o :¡¡ Iii 5 ;;: , : <>: : <>: § o .c 00 .~ ¡¡;- o o '" .. o o ~ æ ~ 1;; $ ~ :; >- õ3 Õ 00 .~ " C> o '" .c Ü . . . Page 13 L .-/ '\ Proiected Enroflments from?OO5 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District part of the "box" for each set of data in Tabie 5. We generally used these single-year rates entering ninth when they were closer to 1.00 (100%) than the rates from the four-year average. While these adjustments may sound like obscure statistics, they actually make a major difference in the forecast. The cumulative rates shown in the far right column of Table 5 are the result of a compounding of the individual grade-to-grade rates from first to eighth. This identifies the change, from the same housing units, in each student-body class as it graduated upward through all of the elementary grades.' Again using the "All Areas of Existing SFD" group within the SESD region as an example, the "0.96" means that 100 students in first grade in one year would become 96 students eight years later in ninth grade (i.e. a 4% reduction), if these rates continue to occur. These cumulative rates are a good indication of the net effect that families moving in and out of the districts, plus to and from private schools, are having on the K-8 enrollments and the subsequent high school populations. Kev Findinas fram the Data in Tabie 5 Many of these rates have even greater trend issues than our findings discussed in the previous section. This is true in both the CUESD and SESD regions. The problem is not in the SFD rates. We often see gaining rates from the more expensive detached homes. Many of the families moving into these neighborhoods are middle-aged, with their children already older than first grade. This results in a cumulative rate that is well above 1.00, as is occurring in most of the CUESD detached dwellings. Those families also can afford private schools, and they sometimes will send their children to private K-8 programs but then opt for public high schools, If the latter are considered excellent. This can cause the rates entering ninth to be over 1.00, which is the case in the higher priced SESD areas (see page 1 of Appendix B2 for these value-range figures). By contrast, attached housing in general and the "Most Affordable" units in particular virtually always have cumulative and ninth-grade rates below 1.00. Other than in modern ATT dwelling units that have significant square footage and two-car garages (which are not a major student contributor even in this district), the families in these attached residences cannot afford private schools. Many of these units also are small and tend to be occupied by families with young children. As those families mature, some will improve their incomes sufficient to move on to larger homes that are more suitable for older children, and they are replaced in their former units, on average, by younger families. This keeps the student popuiation concentrated in the iower grades, with advancement rates generally beiow 1.00. To instead have the "Most-Affordable" units in both of these ESD regions generating over a 10% jump entering ninth is inconceivable, as are the gains entering tenth and eleventh and the 21 % rise from first to eighth within the CUESD. This does not happen in a legitimate population for very long. Something is amiss in this data, and it may be due In part to the cheapest units being rented, but not actually lived in, as a means to get into FUHSD schools (i.e. one method of false addressing). Even after taking that possibility into account, these trends cannot continue for an extended period. We lowered these rates accordingly in the forecast, but that still resulted in major gains through 2015. 7 We exciude the rate entering first grade from this cumulative calculation because that Is impacted by students coming from private kindergarten programs. That factor, while important. is a separate issue from identifying the changes occurring in existing housing in general. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 14 ."/" '! Projected Enroflments from 2005 to 2015 Fretnont Union Hiah School District Averaae Student Generation Rates (SGRs\ from Recentlv Built Houslna Student generation rates (SGRs) are the average rates at which residences "yield" students. These rates can be identified for one or more types of new and/or existing dwellings depending on the needs of the district and the scope of the study. SGRs are calculated by identifying the number of public- sChool-attending students by grade in a suitable (sufficiently large) sample of residential units from the local area. Rates identified from recently built housing are often considered the best estimation of what similar future homes will generate, at least in the first few years of occupation. The SGRs determined from new dwellings in the district are one of the few aspects of the recent trends that met expectations. The SESD has an educational standing that is comparable to many of our Silicon Valley client districts, and Fremont High (whose attendance area covers the bulk of the region) has closer test scores to those other districts than do the remaining FUHSD schools. Those districts generally have K-12 SGRs of between 0.17 and 0.33 (I.e. one student in every three-to-slx units) from new SFD homes and 0.03 to 0.08 from new townhouses. condominiums and apartments. The K-12 rates from the SESD part of the FUHSD are essentially in the middle of those ranges at 0.25 and 0.05, respectively (see Table 6 on page 16). Although there was, as always, some SGR variation between the recent developments, these average rates come from significant samples of primarily high-density units. They are quite suitable for use in projecting students from the similar future developments planned in the SESD region. The CUESD, by contrast, has some of the highest scoring elementaries in California, and that standing was expected to lead to our finding of larger-than-usual SGRs. This educational acciaim also creates a demand for attached units that have two-car garages and square foo1age comparable to traditional detached residences, because those A TT units are more affordable (In relative terms) than new detached dwellings for the families that want to get into both the CUESD and FUHSD. As in many other top-scoring communities, these largest new attached units (sometimes called "SF A". for singie- family attached) have SGRs more on a par with new SFD homes than the other types of new ATT residences. They have been combined accordingly in the SGR samples from the recently built dwellings in the CUESD. (The SGRs by more specific sub-categories are provided in Appendix B3.) Both this merged "SFD and SFA" and the "Regular ATT" SGRs in the region are exceptionally high. The former is averaging 0.71 (or more than two students in every three new homes) and the latter 0.27 (almost three In every ten). Of particular note is that the SFD-SFA rate is also heavily concentrated in grades K-8, at 0.55. That is three-and-one-half times the SGR (0.16) that is now in grades 9-12. Once those residences have been occupied for a few more years, many of those K-8 students will be graduating into the high school grades, thereby raising these 9-12 (and K-12) SGRs even higher.' Also calculated were the SGRs coming from new developments of primarily "below-market-rate" (BMR) units. That sample, however, was too limited to analyze by the SESD and CUESD sections. Such deveiopments, from other than single-room-occupancy (SRO) projects, are averaging 0.47 (I.e. almost one student in every two units). The BMR SRO is averaging much less, at 0.01 from a single site in the FUHSD and around 0.03 in other client districts, which is not surprising since these are tiny units. , A similar comparison between the K-8 and 9-12 amounts in '"Regular ATT" units usually is less appropriate because of declining advancement rates. Since this district has gaining ATT advancement rates, however. a subsequent rise in the 9-12 SGR is also quite possible from new attached dwellings. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 15 '. /," ¡ , Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District Table 6: Student Generation Rates (SGRs) as of October 2005 from Recently Built Housing Category of Sampled Actual October 2005 Students Elementary Recently Built Housing Enrolled In the Respective Districts Current SGR District Region Housing· Units K-2 3-5 6-8 9-12 K-8 9-12 K-12 Sunnyvale SFD 444 24 32 25 31 0.18 BiB 0.25 Regular A TT 1,598 30 18 16 11 0.04 0.01 0.05 Cupertino Union SFD and SFA 408 86 76 62 66 0.55 ~ 0.71 Regular ATT 1.237 120 89 50 81 0.21 0.07 0.27 All Areas BMR A TT (nan-SRO) 110 10 18 7 19 0.32 0.17 0.49 . "SFD" = single family detached "SFA" = single family attached, for modern large, individually owned townhouse and 'plex units with tWQwcar garages "Regular ATT" (attached) = apartment condominium and traditional townhouse and 'plex units "SMR" = developments with most units at below-market-rates (excludes single-roam-occupancy developments) ¡ Proiected New Housina Although over 5,000 new residences are projected during the next decade, most (2,900) are in the low-yielding regular ATT category of the SESD region (see Table 7 on page 17). Another 1,330 regular attached units are forecast in the CUESD area. Only 790 units are expected in the remaining SFD-SFA and SMR categories (see bottom of Table 7 on page 17). This growth will be overwhelmingly in the Cities of Sunnyvale and Cupertino. Those two communities provided most of the new residences in the FUHSD in recent years (with 1he notabie exception of a iarge apartment complex in San Jose) and should be the source of over 95% of the total In the next decade. Sunnyvale will be the largest contributor, with 3,380 units projected. While part of that city is in Santa Clara Unified, nearly all of the residential growth should occur in the FUHSD.9 The City of Cupertino is a distant second, with 1,480 units. Most of the small baiance is forecast in the district's portion of San Jose. Few additional homes are expected in the sections of the district in the Cities of Santa Clara, Los Altos, Saratoga and Mountain View and the unincorporated areas. This concentration especiaily impacts the current Fremont and Cupertino High attendance areas. Fremont High alone encompasses 61% of the total, with 3,053 units projected. All but 187 of these residences, however, are in the low-yieiding regular ATT category within the SESD.'o This includes . There is also a parcel at the northwest corner of Hwy. 85 and Fremont Ave. that Is in the Mountain View - Los Altos Union High School District. Housing may soon replace the office building that Is on that site. It should be noted that these projections through 2015 do not achieve residential build-out in the City of Sunnyvale. Large potential sites will remain In ITR districts Four and Five. Several mid-size and smaller sites will also remain. "The projected "Regular ATT" developments include small percentages of BMR units, as do the recently built "Regular ATT" units that were surveyed in the SGR calculations. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 16 ! , , , proiected Enrollments from PODS to 2015 ./ Fremont Ilnìan Hiah School District Table 7: Projected New Housing Units (excludes housing restricted to seniors)'" Current Housing Projected Additional Units in 12 Months 10 October 1 of Attendance Area Category 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Fremont High Regular ATT 298 298 301 302 302 302 250 253 270 290 2,866 SFD and SFA 16 10 5 9 10 17 11 12 11 12 113 100% BMR ATT 0 0 0 20 20 0 7 7 0 20 74 Totai 314 308 306 331 332 319 268 272 281 322 3,OS3 Homestead High Regular ATT 8 6 0 0 0 0 50 25 25 0 114 SFD and SFA 25 41 43 8 6 0 2 2 2 1 130 100% BMR ATT 53 13 0 0 0 0 0 15 15 0 96 Total 86 60 43 8 6 0 52 42 42 1 340 Monta Vista HI9h Regular A TT 23 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 112 SFD and SFA 46 16 8 38 37 36 13 13 10 10 227 100% BMR ATT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 69 45 8 38 37 36 13 13 40 40 339 Cupertino High Regular A IT 139 133 162 162 140 120 100 62 20 20 1,058 SFD and SFA 0 20 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 100% BMR ATT 0 0 8 7 0 0 10 5 5 5 40 Total 139 153 200 169 140 120 110 67 25 25 1,148 Lynbrook High Regular A IT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 25 25 80 SFD and SFA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 30 100% BMR ATT 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 4 7 7 30 Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 44 42 42 140 Sunnyvale ESD Regular ATT 306 304 301 282 282 302 300 278 275 270 2,900 SFD and SFA 5 7 6 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 80 100% BMR ATT 0 0 0 20 20 0 0 15 15 20 90 Total 311 311 309 309 309 309 309 303 300 300 3,070 Cupertino UESD Regular ATT 162 162 162 182 160 120 100 92 95 95 1.330 SFD and SFA 82 80 78 48 46 46 29 21 20 20 470 100% SMR ATT 53 13 8 7 0 0 17 22 15 15 150 Total 297 255 248 237 206 166 146 135 130 130 1.950 Fremont UHSD Regular A TT 468 466 463 464 442 422 400 370 370 365 4,230 SFD and SFA 67 87 66 55 53 53 36 31 30 30 550 100% BMR ATT 53 13 8 27 20 0 17 37 30 35 240 Total 608 566 557 546 515 475 455 438 430 430 5,020 .... from site-specific projections that are based on EPC fieldwork and information from the relevant city planning departments Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 17 , ~.. ì ¿ \ Fremont Union Hiah School District proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 redevelopment locations with the largest numbers of expected units. namely the Downtown and the "Industrial to Residential" (ITR) districts Seven and Eight. That DoWntown redevelopment, around the former Town Center Mall, already has 292 regular ATT units under construction (but with no move-ins likely until 2007) and another 450 proposed, with some smaller projects expected nearby. The ITR districts Seven and Eight, which are north of U.S. 101 and south of Highway 237, between roughly Morse and Fair Oaks Avenues, have several developments underway and proposed. This includes over 200 regular A TT residences now being built in three developments, with another 800+ forecast by 2015. There are also 250 ATT units proposed on Lakeside Drive by U.S. 101. Several additional developments are either being built or in the planning process (see Appendix B4 for the specific areas and dates). The Cupertino High region has fewer new units expected, with 1,148, but nonetheless should receive more resultant students than Fremont due to a higher ATT SGR. The main locations within the Cupertino High area are in the Vallco vicinity. The 107 "Metropolitan" condos should be available shortly (but with some move-ins projected after October 2006). Another development of 204 regular A TT units is expected soon on an adjacent site (the "Rose Bowl"). Just across Highway 280 from Vallco is a proposal for a mix of 80 regular ATT and 50 SFA units. That could get underway in 2006. And an additional 350-400 could be built nearby within the next decade (for a total of over 800 units). The remaining new housing units are split mostly between Homestead and Monta Vista, with about 340 each. Lynbrook has the smallest new dwelling impact. with just 140 units projected. Concludina Commentarv There are both findings that we feel confident in. for use in the projections, and trends that seem less likely to continue. The SGRs determined from recently built dwellings; the projected new housing amounts; and the resultant number of students from new residences all have relatively high levels of confidence. Some of the trends within existing units, however, are both too unusual and excessive to be feasible for another decade. Deciding when and how much these trends might shift, however, involves a greater-than-normal degree of educated guesswork. We will probably make essentially the right call in most of these trend situations, but not all of them. This creates a wide and increasing potential range, as is shown in italics in Table 1 (on page 3). Even slightly exceeding those ranges is a possibility. We therefore recommend that the district watch for any population changes that might be starting to occur and consider how those differences could alter the projections over time. ,-; . Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 18 ,. ! ' ./ '\ ProiRCted Fnrolfments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah -School District Appendix A 1: Actual October 2005 Resident Populations versus Attending Enrollments Actual Oct 5, 2005, Feeder ESO and FUHSD Students, inc!udlnq SDC~ Hiqh School CateQorv 7 B" 9 10 11 12 9·12 Total Fremont Attendance 485 444 42B 467 1,B24 Resident pOPulation 5B9 543 486 484 454 4B5 . 1.909 Net Difference (A·R) -1 -40 -26 -1B -85 Homestead Attendance 586 587 504 428 2.0B5 Resident population 4B7 527 561 534 512 436 2,043 Net Difference (A-R) 5 53 -B -8 42 Monta Vista Attendance 651 670 607 536 2,464 Resident population 594 598 658 690 629 553 2.530 Net Difference (A-R) -7 -20 -22 -17 -66 CupertIno Attendance 416 384 3B4 355 1,539 Resident population 40B 402 403 406 368 375 1,552 Net Difference (A-R) 13 -22 16 -20 -13 lynbrook Attendance 458 511 432 454 1,B53 Resident population 431 43B 450 472 427 444 1,793 Net Difference (A-R) 6 39 5 10 80 Community and New Start Attendance (no Resident Population) 1 3 14 15 33 Middle Co1\ege Attendance (no Resident population) 0 0 33 59 92 Horizons Attendance (no Resident population) 0 0 3 24 27 All Special Schools Attendance (no Resident Population) 3 50 98 152 Total Attendance 2.575 2,599 2,405 2,338 9,917 Resident population 2,509 2.50B 2.558 2,586 2,390 2.293 9,827 Net Difference (A-R)"" 17 13 15 45 90 .. Attendance figures exclude eighth graders taking classes at the high schools. *« The change from last years 8th grade total to the currenttotal in 9th was -14'% at FHS, +14% at HHS, +4% at MHS, +3% at CHS and +5% at LHS. "u Total net difference is 87 incoming inter-district students (outgoing amount not calculated) and three students listed at u'nlocatable addresses. Enrollment projection Consultants Page 19 7 ¿ Proiected Enrollments fmm 2005 to 2015 ,./ \ Fremont I inion Hiah School District Appendix A2: Projected Oct. 1, 2006, Resident Student Populations and Potential Attendlna Enrollments if Current Intra- and Inter-District I Avels r:ontinue Next Year (graduated up by one grade with adjustments for both advancement rates and special schoolsr Proiected Oct. 1, 2006, Feeder ESD and FUHSD Students, including SOC'" HIQh School CateQory 7 8 9 10 11 12 9-12 Tolal Fremont Resident population 520 585 557 485 481 428 1,951 Potential Net Adlustment -1 -3 -50 -31 -85 potential Attendance 558 482 431 397 1,888 Homestead Resident Population 484 492 554 570 538 501 2.181 Potential Net Ad!ustment 8 5 43 -13 41 Potential Attendance 560 575 579 488 2,202 Monta Vista Resident Population 626 601 605 666 687 618 2,576 Potential Net Adjustment -6 -7 -30 -26 -69 Potential Attendance 599 659 657 592 2,507 Cupertino Resident population 467 410 415 408 403 361 1,587 Potential Net Adiustment 13 12 -31 11 5 Potential Attendance 428 420 372 372 1,592 Lynbrook Resident Population 394 437 439 450 465 416 1.772 Potential Net Adjustment 8 6 29 1 44 Potential Attendance 447 456 494 419 1.816 I· Community & New Start Potential Attendance (current % basis) 1 3 15 15 34 Middle College Potential Attendance (current % basis) 0 0 35 59 94 Horizons Potential Attendance (current % basis) 0 0 3 24 27 AU Special Schools Attendance (sum of above estimates) 3 53 98 155 Total Attendance 2,591 2.595 2,586 2,366 10,138 Resident population 2,491 2.525 2.570 2,579 2,572 2,326 10,047 Net Difference (A_R)u. 21 16 14 40 91 * ThIs information Is provided to assist the FUHSD In planning for the Individual school enrollments. District decisions based on both .. these numbers and many other factors will almost certainly alter the actual net adjustments that will occur tor each school. , U Potential attendance figures exclude eighth graders taking classes at the high schools. U' Projected total net difference is 82 incoming inter-dIstrict students and nine students listed at unlocatable addresses. Note: The projections inctude hidden fractional amounts, so the totals shown here may not exactly match those in other tables. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page aJ L' Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah Schoof District " ~ ~~ # # # # " # # # ~ '" 0 '" ~ N '" <ñ N ()j "- ~ - ~ " 80. ,¡¡ ~ · h~ U 0 f; 1; '? ;!: :;;: ~ m 8 '" ~ 11 ~ 6 0. 13" G §' 0.0 '-ª f L~ ~ '" ~ 0;> '" ;!: m ~m ~ o¡> 0;>- m ~ 0;> " '" ~ "''''''' '" ,...'" '" ~ ~ '? '" " a~- ~ ., m N ! ü CJ)~§ " '" ~ ~ Q E 15 c mir<e ~ ~ · -¡¡ '" 0: 15 0"''''' ,... '" <ñ o~'" '" O'JI"-NC")C") ~ùÏ~~ 0 "'<001'--(") "'''' "''''''' '" '" "'~ 0 "'''' ~ ~ 8: >- 0 _NO '" '" :ß~~ ~ ~~~~~ o,...,...C\lC'1 ~N N '" ~ ;!: ;!: ~~ ~ "'''' ~ ã; ~ æ~~ <0 <0 N(\JC\/<:\I '" C\I.C\!.N.C\I."I. ~~ ~~~ - - '" .c-om ....,...,............. · c 6 ~ c 'g o~ ð Ž û).- · x 8: '" . - ~ ~ U « c m 0 m ~ ~ <0 o~ g8 ë "1 '7 ~ '" <0 ~ 0 Ox ~ N ~ w 8 ð 0 06 ",c¿ 0 ~cJj ~ c ~ ¡: 15 CO~LOC\I '" C\lLOI"-ON O"'N <om N O'J"¢ 1"-<0 r-...,.(").....O C')I"-(")O'J..- "'''' "'''' N "'''' ~",m c '" '" to'd''<tM 0; (\JM..-....o.n "'~,... "'N C':I'<:Tl"-tOCO ....iXI..........a:¡ gJ. ~J~3_ ~. ~. N'" "'''' '" "'- "'N~ 0. " C '" C\JNC\lC\I <.0. U'J.U"J.IQ."""_ "'~~ ~m I.l)LOLO\l)\l') ............OOCOI'- ~~ ~~ ~ _N NN'" ~ 2S . ....,................ C\JC\I"C\iN"çJ ........,........... ~ 6~ 06 -S ~ a 0. ZOO 0. a. ë · 15 ~ ~ >-" ,....NM-=TI.{} .....NC')'¢\O ....C\lC")"TU") 0 C\I(")"I'LO ....C\lC')"T1.O ....C\I(f)'<;tLO .....NC')'<:I'LO ....C\lC'J'<tLO iñ " ~ 88888 88888 88888 8888 88888 88888 88888 88888 ~~ 0 ë w 0. C\JC\lNC\JC\I C\lC\lNC\lC\I NNNC\lN '" NC\/C\!(\J C\lC\lONC\lC\I C\lC\I(\C\(\J C\lC\lC\I(\C\I C\lC\lNC\lC\I 13 · 0 " 0 · .- õi 0: C '-- a ~ 0. 8 u. ~ ~ ~ oo . ... ~ 8 ~ " ~ N, " 15 ~ 06 " ~I:s ~ . u ~ . ~ ~ rn oS ~ f- 12 6 .¿, ~ g¿ Qjl~ 0. 8 . " ~ ~ 1ii " .Ë ~ ~ ~ U ;¡> oS °Ë ~ .. £~ æ o. ¡¡; >- ~ c=> c . .x ü ~ " ;; e- O; 1! -~ '" 8 ¡¡ ¡¡;~ a > " ~ §' .. rn " '" 0 ~ . ~ " x 12 ~ ~ . rn ~ ~ ~ W,j " 0. ~e ¡¡; u 0; " 1; ~.§. 0. ~ c 0: " " " " "" ~ x ~ 'g o~ ~ ~ ~ 0. 0. .~ " C '" 0 Ox f- a I:: w u. oo " '~ jg . . co: ~ Ë ."Q ~ " c iD~ c ~ a oo Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 21 , ..~ \ Proiected Enrollments from?OO5 to 2015 L Fremont Union Hiah 0choD/ ulsrr/cr n-~~ '" .- ~;gæ ° o , ÎU ~ h~§ :g C\J ~ ~ c: '7.g « ~ 01a.. .. · a: >0 "' '" e .,. ¡¡ :I: '" .5; ;; ·x w .5 · ~ ° · ,= e o ~ o ." 0. o 0- Õ · ~ o iñ Õ · ~ .. · a: 8 ~ · :i5 o f0- E ]I · " õ. Qj~~ ..c'UcÐ E., e Ž en'- . -~ "'0 _ coo ~(\5 u ~ E roo« ~iJ.ì ÕJ!co Qj æ ~ Ê ~.~ ~'" ¡¡¡ x '5 e · 0. 0. « Õ >0- ~ . 0"' w9 u o '- 8 ~. · . ,,' 0; 0 "' . ';:(6 åü · · u ° · " ~ 0: il~~ )(I~ w ~.~8 co: Ëu .e w12 " '<tU"J'<tr-- "-,, ~~~gJg coco......r--r-- OCOC\lvCO (DO co...... !;") COCJ) CJ) 0"" ....:....-.....C\i'C\I. ....C\JC'J'<tU"J 88ggg NC\lNNC\I 1= « Õ . o . I; e ;; Jj 3. i o .5 d «- .i - 0 o ° ~E § 8 0- '" '" ~ u ...... coco I'-- . '- co m...... 01 co cor--co¡-...m NNNNC\I u ....CO......<n<n 0"''''''' 01 co ............ co co co ....C\Jt':)'<T\l) 88888 C\lNC\lC\lC\J . :ë o 12 o ~ >0 " ~ " " 0: >0. "" g'~ ~ ã! ~ ox. F:;< '" " ~ "'f"~~'7 01(")(")......0;0 C':I"'f"co......r--. '" '<tOC'JN(,,) :::~~~~ 88888 C\I<:\IC\lNC\I ;¡ 0- r :; '" '" '" ~ " .........N01 -~" C')O..-C':IN o;o......CClO"'f" <n\l)\l)CO(Q '" co N<n O;¡O;¡ ~- ~.~.:::_~. ..-..-.,...........- ..-NM'<I"IO 88888 NC\lC\lNN ~l11íiì ¡!!:ë ~ <:( 10 (ij ~~ ~ 2-:t:: ttI :s ~~ c = c: .0- (!).g '!ñ >00. ~.,§'8 or:; a:õ<>(l " u. '" o e 'E . 0. o () '" ~ '" ~ N.....ON ~" '<tNC'J(")<n ............-C'J<O (")C':I(")C')C') '" ')' '<I"O"'f"O(o I'--/DM..-N roOOCClCOCCl ..-N(")"'f"..n 88888 C\lC\JC\lC\JC\J ~ .s . '§ . '6 '" 1<- " e .g> o '" '" :;; r--.O<:")CCI '" ~~ "~'<I""""IO fgco~~~ C\ÏC\ÏÑÑ(\Î '" 'I CClNOr--.CO 8:;;¡g53 ¡¡j In" ¡¡j co- cD ..-C\lC')"'f"U"J 8g8gg NNNNC\I . ~ .s .- 'ë ~ :2ïjj :; ¡;; ~~ ~ . 'ÔI ~ e 0 os " . o - '" ~ COC\l......C\I N"'f"C'J'<T CJ)U"Jr--.'<ttO ~_gJ.~.C;;_~ ..-..-..-......- "' " M..-C\l(Q1D r::;::1ó:¡::& ÑC\I-C\ÏÑÑ ..-N<:")'<I'U"J 88888 C\JNNNN ~ 111 ê 111 i5 ª" ~ :2 Q ~ :::æ: ?:-£ ~~"@ o..~ :;¡ 0.21 >oor =æ";.I:: .s . g> :?~e O.E£ '" '" ~ ~ COVN..- OU"N'<I" - "'- ('?..-U"""CCI ,...CO(")Il'J01 to...... co 0..- v-"¡"¡LliIl'J' ro '" ....U"J..-..-U"J ~~Rió~ öö6öö ..-..-..-......- ..-NC")'<I'U"J 88888 NNC\JC\lN " u. '" Õ . o . I; e 1;\ ·x w ;¡ '" .. ¡¡> Co 1;; c '" . .. 8 ~ s -ª s ! '" 15 '" . '" æ ¡¡¡ " ~ 8: "" ~ ~ Enrollment Projection Consultants '. Page 22 proiected Enrollments from P005 tt? 2015 JL t , , Fremont ¡ inion Hiah School District ~ g ~o ~Nê ~ ~ 9: I.) a.. ~o h~3 _" 0 ~t~ IíO Im~ </)>-~ N 5 ~ dJ¿¡:c( 1:- o Iii' 1; ü .. ~ o ~ " '¡¡; ~ 0: ¡;- 0> o '¡¡; ð 0: 0> o ~ ø x OJ ,S ø " o ~ >= o o '~ - " 0. o a. " ~ " ~ ¡jj " ~ " '¡¡; ~ 0: o o ~ ~ :õ - ¡.- !2 'æ 0; a ¡;; x 'õ o ~ 0. 0. "" Õ~N (¡) 15 î~ch 2(fS . -~ gg 'ª ~ N -' Ü ~ Ë ~a~ Õ!!!a:> 'Qj æ ~ î -g.s ~fñ õ ~~ ~ß - 0 OJ" ° '0 Ó o ". 15 :~ 0; 0 .0 'sB e. ø ~ o ~ " '. . 0: ~ ~g 'xl- OJ C\lC\I""01 ",;"MN.". ~8~~~ ."..".."..".1t'J ~æ~;;;~ a:> a:> a:> a:> a:> ,...NM""1t'J 88888 NNNNN ~ :õ - -e o " "" ;; o :¡ j: « 1:-~- ~ ~ 00: ~ " ffi 'S lD.!!! a ~ o ~ c .S '1: ë: 1J.8 ~- ü t. 13 M '" .".ror--a:> M~~ CONOr--1t'J Mr--It'JO"" r-r--a:> 01 01 'I' r-,...M""1t'J r-It'JNOO ,...M.".It'J(Q t.'<iN"t.'<iÑci ,...NM'<t1t'J 88888 NNNNN ;; ~ "8 :¡ "" ~ " - -e o " « t. " " r:: ""r-....'<t WC':l....M 0)..... a:> 01 C") V,...'<tIt'JO) 1t'J([)(Qcoco ~ " ~ COOOCOO OON.".O :. ~" ~" ~- ~. ,...NM'<t<n 88888 NC\lNNN ;;- ~~ :1:: )( o ~ ~ ~ 15- 8 « ~ E "É!.!!! Q):t OJ - 0 :!:!-§¡'6 ~ ~ ~ '8e~ :¡,¡;~ t. ¡¡¡ t. .. " t. M " ~":'I0)"'f <nr-It'J.".O M'<t'<tll)\t'J o ....0)....<n1.t'J 0)0)0);2:0) ,-NM'<t1t'J 88888 C\iNNNC\I "" '. ~ ~ S.:¡ .s'§¡ ~:E 1;.0 ~ 0> ~ 5 "8 ~ :¡,¡; ~~ :ëg; §II-;" g 'ã3 ~ F=~~ ~ .. .!:1 ffi 0. ~ 8 .0 .. :g E " å. ;¡: ;; ¡; 'E ~ x ~ e. ~ " x ~ 15. ~ " .. o ° ~ ~ "" " ~ E " - 0. - .. ø ~ o .,. o ~ E ~ o g " § u " " ~ £ - '"' :' ¡,; ~ 8 .,. iI ~ 0; " "" '~ ~ Õ> o . " b u. '!' ó o " ffi .0 E ~ 15. ~ <I) ~ o '. iI " " . !!J '. ~ 0> o . ~ o .0 ~ o o o ~ ';;j ª '. ,¡; ';¡ ø - ~ æ 0> o '. :;¡ 15. Õ ø " ð u .. - ª' 0> go - ~ - 0> o '. o - 15. .,. ~ ~ ,S ]I ~ . Q)= il3 ~ ~ 1~ o 0 ~ ,- ~ ~ :-æ _ s ' .¡g 010 g-~fß gI~ : ~5 ~~g :G~~ OJ).S % ~1&ü 'g~:5 Æ ~ ,S _ _ ø !!J0a. ~~~ ~§g ø 0 ~ ~:æm ~ ffi * §<CF em· ~ ~" .fiffi~ 2£-0 _ _ x ~ Q) OJ) ItI .S æ ~~~ § en ~ _ ø _ ë.~.c ~~â .0><1) 'E-SlU ~-. OD-¡¡j U <I) ;:. §:I: c -æ § § S"E(J) g-::J 5: 0.11 Q) - ° ~ äi~~ åU:Q) . ..0 õ.c .21 (/}::.c ~ 0 ~ ~ã?~ ~:::c:::~ ~:3 .~ <:'II-gE ~ '- II) _ 0>_ ¡ß¿,{3 ~ - ~ ~ U ø OJ'C ~ ;:: -¡¡:j (/} ~'õ ·ê 0gO ~£~ all)r3 ;¡ ô ., Õ M . æ ã; x " ~ & " § 1; a '¡¡; 0> o '¡¡; ð .0 C - o Ë o " ~ £; õ Ü a. w ¡;- !!J o ~ S o 0> '. . - ~ ~ is ~ ø !2 ~ - ø ~ '0 o 0> ~ G ~ ~ õ z .".¡-...N.... CO~o)CD C»MONt') ?Ó~~~:: ",:,...-"':C'it.'<i " 0> .. ",,"0 co... ro ~~;;;~(;:; oci ~..,¡ 1.t'J" ui 5~8g~ 00000 NNC\lNc:\I ~ ~ õ ~ ~ ~ o tii 'x w ð I , ¡ c Page 23 Enrollment Projection Consultants ì ( Proiected Enrollments from ?ODS to 2015 Fremont Un/on Hian scnoal ulstnct ~ E i ~ ~ 1], iE£; 0 ~ "' '" ~ --" '" " 0 ;; ~ . 0 0 0 :§ E1i- ::Ja:ü) ~ (J _ 'õ ~ E 0 ! u:;~~qg~ ...-1.0 C':I NtO OO("1aJC') (DMC\lI'J'o.. ft!~ffi~U:; COC\l.....,.....ro g '" U)Nf'-.'<tO C\lO(\l('l)1"'" t'--I.DC\I"<I'''''' MIX)Q'Q'Q') .8 .!!! 101.01.0""''''' ctJ"<t""!ntD ~!;f~~5;f ~~~~~ (()Q'Q'O>O 1.0 l() (0"" <:0 '" NC\(\C\I(\ .- .....,............. NNNC\N ~ Ü i> 1;; '" £; a;~gsißga~ l.Oor--'<tC')1"- f"-.vil'JOCO<.D ....l.Omf'o-C"'JO) ~8æ~œ~ tñlO 1'-0 ((1(') ~ ('\(\O)oom ....cr:lco.....com ....ooocnoco (OUlt'-«)O'I .!!! " N ....C\I.............O ...-.... ........0 C':)('t)(\(\Nc;j ........... ....0 .....................ó .¡¡; - 0 " S 0 : .0 ~;;t;r:::~r¿ ~ Kl~~~~õ ~æä::;!ffiffi mO'lCOQJ'<tO'l ~~~:2;:!~ <.D1.llt')C')aJ(\ ~ J: '0.- ......mo....oO'l CD(Of'-, CD 1"--0 '" ,,'0- N..................O .... ...........-,...: (l'}NNMNc:i .... ...-.....,....0 .......-,...,............; " " ttI!!..... '\1 ~ 00 .12"J: x ~ffi~~as 8 OC')r-..c.oNU"J MMNr--C\lN IJ)OC':lt'J'<t " N_ .....l.Om'<t O....'ltiXIC'JO ",' W ~..c..... 0)....0..-1.00 co 00 NO "<to m.....NO..... '" <0<0 r-.(Cco~ ~~~~æ~ oouO .........N...........,...; .................,....: N(\MC")C")"': ..............- 0 'õ '- to.... E Ow g ~~= OON....N ;; ...-0 "<t....C")C':I ....01'-.(0(0(0 I.ONCI'>OIl'l 0..... (()C\ OJC') t{}C')I.OC\C')(\ ~ 00 >.¡:: C'J (0....00)00 CO....LON.... (0........."<1'00 ;:;:~~~ - W<Of'-..COCOr-: t--,...«IO..-.- " " . ....C\I(\..........,...: ...................... . NC")t"')MC')"': ,.....,.........NN,..; rn QiE ex exw.o N"<tmcco to- ~ffi~~~õ N"'¡-...-CO"'¡-oo l.t1oolJ100 ,. C\I_co"'¡-"'¡-C') I"'-O'J C')"'¡-"<t I"'- ~ rn .00- om 1"'-(7)CJ) 0) O'JCJ)....O...-Cf) OooON"'¡- '" 1.01.0 f'-. f'-. 1.00 1.0 V coCJ') OQ) .0." N.....-.-..-O ...-.........,...: NNC')C":IMÓ - - -- 0 ...-..-.-...-Nó .~ > ~{;J " .~ ._ ex ~ " '0-.0 «)(")'N_oof'-. ~~~è\j~8 Mf'-.NMf'-.CJ) O'JOl.OtONO ..-OO.-O<DtO otOf'-.ooCOQ) (f) · " - 0000.-0....0) CO.-NNNO') ;:!;:;:;!~~ tOf'-.f'-.tOUìCf) r--CO 00 O...-Q) =Q)r-- ...-.-NNNci .,.... ,...........- . NC":I(r]c:")c:")O 0 ,............NNo t 0 E '< 0 ë .0 " 0 " U.o g..-NOO(\JCf) Ñ~~~m~ ..-(f)Q)I(}..-N (DvO')I(}Q)Q) vc;')«)lJ1vLn g;¡;¡~@~5 8 · c_ ...-.-Nr--m ...-Nc:")C'1f'-.O ,....C\lC\ltO"<t(J) a:lf'-.<DIJ1CO~ ~~I.O .....NNN....ci ,- .-.-.... . c:")c:")C'1OON,...: '-"'-"'-'-""'0 N..-.-C\lN"": " ð~ " E >. c¡¡ £: r--"<tVVCJ)OO «)NI;")1DI.t1..- C'Jr.or--l;")r--co ,...r--C')OC\ltO NOr-..VQ)O'J C') 1"'-0 v....r-.. " @...-....IX)IX)O) O')~;:!CJ):;::~ 000...-(000) C')N<DIJ1"<tcn <D<DI.t1CD<DO) ~~~~è\j~ g ,Co", NN,.......O OOC'1(f)C\lMci '-""''''-'-'''-ci 0 2!2 '" "« > " .0 ~~@Ja;~8 ,...1.[')....ooN.- ~gJ~~~8 (l')C\lNM"'¡-f'-. ....v..,¡-«),....... "<ttO <00'1 U1 co 'C -g~;t NOCJ)"-"""O vtO<D'<tI.OC'I <O<O(:Q<omC! ON..,¡-OVQ) .« NC\lN..-N,...: ,...,- ...--,...: C":I(f)NC')M""': ...-.....-.-,-0 NC\lNNNO " - '" (f) - '0 ëg!'-o i'! "<t<D<OO<OO ........IJ1(:Q..-v 1J11"'-1J100f'.N "<t<Of'.,...Oc:") MOO......-.r......,¡- r--"<tCCIJ1......C') c;> .«- NO) 00..-<00 OO'lNO_O NOO.-.....f'.O ~~~r;:~~ (000 r-.. (00) C! M"<tOIJ1r-..O '0'0'" N"-"-C\l,-"",: ...- ........-,-,...; C')NMMN,....: NNNNN""; S ïii Q) " ,,- '0 a::§-o <D"d'IJ1IJ1MCO NCO.-(()"-f'. a) (O<D..-..,¡-r-- CO....(OIJ1(\1.O NC')ooCOr-...... O"d'O'J(I')Q'r-.. «"- - . " c:or-......f'.r--Q) c:o...-o......o::tm tDm.-O')....cn o::t(")IJ1COIJ1O') coooool"'-coq C')..-C')(DC')O'J i5 :: 3: C\I .........N..-....O ....,-........0 NNC")NMO ........................0 NNNNNO C 1J" f'.O'JMl.t1tDCC <DNr--IJ1C\1IJ1 Q E $ (¡j ~~~~¡g8 vroOroCCN OIJ1(Ö..-IJ1CC ~~~~~g rn 0-- NO')Nv'<tO .........O)N(f)O (f)(Dro<D"<to coccO'JroQ'~ S Z iì ....N.....,......-,...; .... ......,.........,...; C')C')NC")C')""; ,.....................,..; N(\N(\N""; 0- ~ 0 ex 'd COr--CO(l')"'¡- 0'JO'J"<t1O"<t <oCOct;lCOQ) .........IJ1O'Jv ~~~&58 (1')0 CON "<t 0- " ~~<;e:~~ oo:;::~~';!:! 000')0.,...'- ~~~~~ "<t1J1C'1"'¡-r-.. " "" NC\lC')c:")C":I NNNNN " '0 0 ¡¡; 8 õ\ c~§1\:g _NC')vlJ1 .....NC'1..,¡-1J1 ,...NC")"'¡-I.O ,-(\~'<t1.t1 ...-NM"<t1J1 " 00000 88888 888gg 00 00 88888 " 00 00 00000 00 00 NNC\1NN NNNNN C\1NNC\lN NNNNN NN NN NNNNc\ 'C . ¡¡; " w ex 8 . " '" " t; E " 'õ 0 . ~ ~ . "' N '0 . E ~ ~ 0 " ::E 0 « D g8 ~ ~ .0 '" II ... 0- '" l- · . " 0- w'O 'f ." - :> Jj .2 _ 0 D . . w- I¥ " _ x .0 · . '" CIË '" S ,¡; ex,C '0 g' . ~ 1ii ~cn~ œ ~ 0 11'. 15 ~ $' (J £ - " '" 0 ,5 ::J œ 0 "E œ >- . U on 0 . (J '" ]1 e õj 1;j Q .S '" 15 ~ "' x 0 > æ u.~ « .¡¡ ; .>! w- '" '0 <n_ t; is .. '0 · ~ õj 0 = ~ 0 ~ " õ; ex ::; <'=' ::; " ill ~ ", 0- '0 '" « 0- 0 ~ ~'51- u. ~~ (f) \ J:.2c . ,2'(/),2 -Q ,- :!~~ ~<n >-w œ 0 " ,;..J ~ L ~ - <n Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 24 I I. , , ,.. , L ProiectRd FnroflmentS'from 2005 to 2015 Fremont I In;on Hiah Schaol District ~ E! ¡E:5 :i-co E~S Ba:! "" o 0> · ;; ü ~ 0> C ,;; o o :I: 0> ." 1;; .;0 w E g ID · ;; 0: " > .~ o "' t: o '" o ,¿ . 'C -Q) £; c"C ~ ~ õð", ~ .cu ~, ~ õSj ~g£ > .:: 01 ~.s " c O:W'" Q)((ã5 £W .£ a: ~~~ "2 E c" "u'" Q)ælõ "C > ~"C OJ""", E~lñ 1!! § c"" ~~~ 2 Ci] "' à; ~~'C '0-0(;; æ~"O ~~áj 2!ë E.5[jj ~ijj " 0: -d " " '" '" ~I æ~¡gÑg ~t--t--t--!;:: CONt--C"Jo; ~~~-.r ;::f;eJ;e~~~ mo>r--. r--CD co t--t--t--t--COCJ') o IDCDøo:'mo «t--t--cocn~ COOlNOU1{Q t--t--co 0 0)0"1 " C")O)OOC')C")O) 0> co 0':1 0) 0'10) o NU1,.....C\J.....tn 0'100'10>0>01 " 1.t)(Q(X)(")f'-.1X) ;::mmmooÓ ~ª;;!;ffi~~ 8:£0; "'''' ,....O)~ o;~~:£~~ ~~~cr;~~ ;2~g~~ê1 r--m'<tl"-CD COf'-.t--CDOO -"'8 g80 "''''''' ~ 8 .= 2 ~ ¡ :;; 1<- " c .<5> ð """' DO DO "'''' ;; ~~~è':!ía; tJ1COl'-OOID corocoCOO'J C")O'JOO(QC")CO g~~~rõ6 ~æ;1¡a;$~ (01.0 (0 (.0 CD ci CD CO{) I.t)-."m NIOOl'-(O(J' CO<.Dcct--t--ci ~~~tl3æ~ (Or--t--r--t--cj Ñf~H~~~Ei i"'-I"-t--t--r-- atn"<t\,['}a)N ~:er:~~q ~1:\i~~83 r-r-. t--,_t-- tDCDO':IO>'<tN ~ffipg~gq a;"<t('J)ooenC'1 (O~'G3ffi:ß° ~æ~ffi;;:~ (O(D!.OW<C! ~;~æ~~ (DtOtDtDl.O mt--¿gt--g~ w::R(()m!I) o::t"<tO>Nf'-.. f2f2~~ø -'" 00 00 "'''' "'"""' 888 "''''''' o '" ~~~8Ñ (')CJJo>oa C':I C'1 '" ~.."'" lO CD r"--<D 00> æ;;æg;;2j .~ b; E ~ ffi q crJ N ,., C") C") o m"<tON g;;g~~~ en GOtt1cot-- æc;;~~~~ (X) 1'--100 NN C\/CDU1'<:tNO C")C")C")ct)C")"-: U)C\lOCDO ~~~~;;;o ~gpg~O)~ C")C")MC"JC") ONOO)OC") "<t 0....-0 C")C")(')('t)ct) c;~~:£~:g C")('t)NNN OIX)"<ttO('t)"<t ;;;ææ~æ~ CD{'I'Jf"-.f"-.l'-tO <D<DtOiX)iX)O C\3NC\JNN.,-: ;:1;iD!;;¡e~S! C\JC\3NNN O)CDNCDC') ('t)NI.O'<T'<T NC\JC\lC\JC\J õ~a;;:g 00000 NNNNN ID E 8 .= a. o >- '" 0> o o £; " i5 "C ~ ~ a. ::0 "' '" "<tCDtOCO'" I.OOC')CO"'" '¢lOlOCDCO ~~~lO~ Oi~~¡caffi o~~_Nci 1"-T"""0'It() co N~O'IOCO(7) ~.--;:N~O "'~'" "'§§ N~~ "'~ ~ 1J, ~ <; " '" · £; ~ o E g .8 · £; ;¡¡ ~ o .s o Q £; .~ '" "ë; '" · 0> ~ Q. &¡ .~ " ~ "" ë " E · u c · -È; "" ID "C ~ ð ;2 " "C · ð c Q ;; ." a. o "- ë " "C ;3 "' ë · "C .¡;; ID 0: c o "' ID :is ~ >- .g ;; o '" m(j go \I) Qllt :5! Õ' 0 0-, 9 ~.2!1 ~ a ~ 1ô .~"§; 0 1ñ g X 0 ~'§ Õ; ~ æ 0<1) O~ o "S I- H ..1:2 c: .~ ~:8 z ~ ~ ~ 0 ~...I '" Ñ - NI"-O'II"-IO(7) C\I,¢T"""'<TC')O'1 ,-T""" ci . E 8 .= ID i5 "C ~ 1<- " c :Q¡ ð ~~æg ..- ;2C'1 "'''' "'''' ~O "'"" "'0 ·æ ;¡ o N OJ X 'C " " a. a. "" ~~\Bæ~~ ,-,... ci '¢ '<T (!) CD m O. C\J(D;2~~ R~t:g~~ o>'¢ctJlOOO ;::~IOIO!.n~ (7)C7IOc;nI.OC7I IOI.OCD'<TC'10 ~ ;~~C\I~~ ~~ÑC')~~ "' ~~~8 ~'"" - ° I"-'<T CDCDtD NN 00 N~(Ob-i~8 roroO'lCOO'1tD OCJ:INO'Io. f"-. t.C f"-. 0 "'~ ';201,-ŒI iH 5~a~~ ~~~~~ 1;; ID ~~ ~~ ;; 0 £; ID m:g ~"C <~ 0>"" .~~ :f:' (0 _ c c: "51 ~ "§ o "- "' - c en Ow .= " 1:: 0 8,ë 0" " Enroflment Projection Consultants 7 ~~~;;æ~ N~~;2~ "'"" N" "'''' "'''' æo. "'" ~~ I.OC7IOtOC1('t) ~~æ~~o. C;0'<TCO "'~ÑCJ:I 0'" ~~ ~~èõ~ '" '" ~ ~ "'''' ~D. tOC7If'-. CD CD'<t '<tNI"-CDC")D. ;:: ;::::: ~~~5 ;:~:: 0", 0"'''' ~~ 8æ::: ;:0 r--. I'--N 1'--1'-- tOC")C1N(j) mO'l(7)O'JO ªª 8;;~ 000 "'NN . . ~ 0> ~ " c "- en ;¡ Page 25 Praiected Enrollments from :;JOOS to 201S ~ .~ ~ <JJ " .c o <¿ ë ID I- ~ o rn > " «. ID " rn (; 9 .¡, " rn (; o o ~ rn ." 0. o "- ë ID " ~ iii ë ID " .~ ID a: o o '" ID :ë rn f- .8 ID E I '::01: !.=¡; ~ .. 0 E¡¡- ::I a: 'ti.i " - - ¡,. o '" * ü ~ '" o .~ ~ o J: '" .s t; ·x w E g ~ ID ¡¡¡ a: J\ ,,'ID § ,,16 õ(; '=.c. -6 .22 ~ <;2 Ow ë~.c. ~ '¡:: m ~~ ID 0 a:w.c ~¡ßõ5 -¡¡¡ .s.a: 'Cë.c. .E:!(1)t::: ë E o ~ ID o.c ~~(D ." " «. "'-.c .B'~iñ 11 § 0«. ~~~ 2 C6 <JJ :;; ë>-a ID «. " ~~I.'? æf-a ~@;~ .13ë E i!! II) ¿~ ID 0:.,; o '" g õ\ ;: o o 0. ·æ ~ '-.11') 'g g ~ ~I:? ëij .81~" ID ID a::g_ ag"§ ð ~ § xO ~~ N '" x ß o ID 0. 0. «. õ" ~ æ"Q) 0", °51- 5~ ,c¿: .c.2c .2" 11).9. ~~~ rn 0 .;...J OJ - ~æ~t:;~ ~~~~~ ,5 N - 8~~~~§ '" '" ,,; LOI;')t")...-Q C;;C\lt'--"'-C\I C\I~~~~ I"--(")...-t'--C\l-.:t t'--<.D\{}QC\lC') ...-...-.-C\lC\lci ~~gj~~~ C\lC\lC\lci ~?aM~!;t~ C\lNNN.... l.'?~tOC')........ OC\l..,.(")C")..... C\lC\IC\INN...- C")L()C\lN'¢<.D ~~~~Ñ6 ~C')C\lmt'--O ~g¡~Ñ~~ ,...~~:;tDg; C\lC\lNNNci C\lU)\l'IO\l'lr-.. g¡~~æt(j6 ~gr:::a;rc~ C\lNNNNO ...-<.D r-..C')\{') co oor-..t'--moOJ C\lC\I C\lC\IC'1 0 ~COC\lcn"""'" bJ~MC'1~~ oom"'l'C\I"'I'r-.. .....C')C\lN"'I'O C\lC\I(")C")(")..... OC'1m,....N .nC\lT""NtO C\I(")(")C")(") _0. 88 NO. "'.,'" 000 000 0.0.0. 1.0 O'o.....'¢ (")<.D ~o~ N~ ,...(")""'1.0"",10 OQ~C")~ ~~~§~~ 10 C\l1O I"-(\j"'" cn~ 0 ~ t3~3;gffi~ . ,,; ~~g;~õ; C\llO(")OO..-(\j CDO'J CD coO) C! - "'<t\l)N(,,)(")OO ocoCOCDcom ,,; Nllllll'<tCDcn co "",co 01 co Q) o t")"'I'L()C\lI.OO1 ""'000:10"",0) o ~;X;¡;:;¡:::~~ - 00 (") 1.0 0 "'- l'-~tOO1 ....C\lC")...,.1l'I ggggg NNNNC\I ID :ë rn " " '" «. t; o ::¡ ~ «. - ~S' o UJ ~ ~ c.!;; 4).2§ g.§ 2. " t; ID " o ::¡ .. ID :ë rn " " '" «. Enrollment projection Consultants "''''''' 0"'"' ","'0 __N ¿ '" '" - - "'- C\j~ <.D'<tC\lI'-I'-"'" ""~~~~d OI'I''<tNC\I ~('")~IO-;!:~ C")t'\NN('")O) C")1O~:;:!::;:!:6 O'IO)iXI"'I'....cn ~'<t:;:!:1O~~ "<tNN'¢OI"-- "'I' Il'IOOLOO) ,..- "'-0 01;<;:.(")1.00 N~J"-.~~§ J"-.(")Q)(")1.01l'I \l)lOlO~~~ 10 to 0) 0> "'I' ~!D:;:!:oo~~ J"-.(")(")00(")1"- ~IO~-.r@~ O1"¢'<tmC")t':I Nt'--"'I'~CO:: NI"-t'--C") OlD to'<tt'--coÑ~ ~~R~ - O"'l'OIDM C")IOID~N T""N(")'<tU'} 00000 00000 NNNNN - ~:;:!: -- ¡o. ·E ID E «. .c '" i' .c '" ~ 2 ,5 .. ¡¡¡ :;; " o ::¡ rremonr U//lU/J nlUJI L~liIIUUlI..I',","'''i ~ c<)(")IX)(")"'" ~~~Zg è5~è5~~f:ñ ~C")...q-~IOÓ ~~ctJ~õ~ "'I'...ßIOIO,..- KJ~g~~~ ...q-'<t~IOIO,,-: ~~gJ:;~~ "'I'-.rIOIO~...- lñ~~æ&;~ "'I''<t...,U1~Ó ffi::gt3&;~Ci "'1'10 10 '<t 10,.... 1"-1'-- N(")"'I' ~~lñ~~~ ¡g~~;:æ~ '<tlOlOU1lO...- :;:~~g8éi ..,.., ~ \{') <0,.... J"-.(J)C")O)OO g~~fRg~ Nt")...-NN(") ft!ft!fR?i:Zb~ 1"-0U1(7.1~aJ ft!$@(ôI.D~ c<)"¢\0101O !;;æ~gæ ..-C\lc<)"¢~ gggg8 C\lC\JNC\JC\J o .~ 5 O! ID ¡¡¡ " ~ ;;: " 'E ~ ë " E " rn 0. rn " o rn x ID ã. 5 o k ID ã. ~ " ,; ~ ~ o .c c ~ £3 Ô " c 8 ,; ¡¡¡ " 11 ß rn ID ,5 E g " ID " ~ 1J x ID ID " ID 0. ¡o. ë rn c Ë o " rn '5 5 .~ ~ rn " " '" o ·E c -'" "- ,; ~ rn '" o ·ë :¡¡ ã. £ rn ID .E c Q ¡¡; " .~ '" o ~ ~ ß fa o ·Ë .g ~ õ ü "- w ~ ~ ë ID E c '" .~ ~ rn 11 ß ID IS ~ o ID " ~ ID o o * Ü .8 "Ô ID ~ u ;g «. " 1: :< i:i ID £ * " :2- Ë .!!! ID õ> o .~ " b lL '!' " " rn 0, ~ g «=~ ~.Q ~ ¡g gh~ :;;- " c c .- :x#- Eii1 g.... ¡¡¡ #" "'2 õ.c 4).2'1 ",ID rn ~ :;; c > ID ~.13 rn 0 .B'1! ""' *8 m'" b~ .£ Ö §2 .~ ., ~8 0.'" o . o.õ ëO ID E a,g · - · " ,5 ID >- " § ¡¡; £ · c .. æ:s E .E o ID <1)'" w:¡¡ ID~ " U s.õ §* <1) - ID ID £= .£ m £ ~~ Õ. o ~ :;rID t;j IJ. ü" ~~ <1) 5 2 :c : , , "0 .~ " '" ~ o ~~ - t; :< ID ,g ~ ~~ c ? %! ~ m -" ~~ gë ~ 53 ,!;; !!! " ID lL16 ui OJ ~~ :¡¡ :¡¡ ~1! ~~ o.c '~ ~ ~~ -'" 0 ~ '" m ~ !!!.E CO ID~ > ID ID E ~ " . 0 "ª~ ",- .c E :E e "'- '¡¡¡ ~ .J: ~ 1!~ ".c '31;; ~ .21 ID ¡¡¡ >- ,£ æ ~ E rn ~ " " '" 0 -;¡< i!?"' ;¡;:cn C ID .- .c t;" ~3 ID ~ 5 ~ >-ID :¡¡£ .J: ~ o rn ë Qj ~ iå ~ § - ~! ~- E ê ~ rn C ID . E £0 õæ .§ Q.) "" 8.~ .. C ~ ~ -<1) .!!! III 0~ ~Ë , , , t; E-'" ,g~ ~:: [!! ~ ",0 ~ IJ:!:: .!:: c: - ~ .~ g> Qj1ñ ë: Õ .~ ~ .~ r ,~ ID ID £ ID .!i~ o.~ E ID ~,£ ID E ~,g '" "Q '" t N" '" ~ i 8: <: ,; c o ~ õ 5- . £ oS " . ë e - rn ~ ID :;; .c ~ ~ '5 o E c ID · .c ID ~ .c · o ID .c f- ,; 2 e " · ;; :; o B ¡¡¡ ~ ¡¡ rn · ;; · t; c ~ o .c o · · ~ · .c f- ~ Z Page 26 .'J " Proiected EnroJlments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hioh School District ~\ ¡; '0 ~ 1ñ i5 . '8 0: eJ ;: '5 00 00 . ~ ,6 ,2' ~ ~ x Iii 0 " § 00 x '" '8 '8 E E ~ ~ '" ~ ~ 0 ~ ,6 Iii f " c- oo LU 0 "'" ~ ~ 0 0 , ~ 00 ,S °æCCl~æ"'OON~r--."<I"r--.C\J'" o,..,..~OOOOOOOOOOoO~ o~,..,..OOOOOOOOOoOO~ o~,..,..~oooo","'O,..o,..o~ O(\,..NOOOOO,..,..o.-oo,..m o~,..,..ooooo,..,..,..,..,..oo~ O",,,,"'N,..OOONOO(\OOO~ ,1: ,S i'" '. , o X ~ ë v 0 LU . Õ ~ 0 }1 00 0 N . ~ E , z " 3 '" u « O,..OO"'OOoo",_"''''OOOO~ O~O..."'<I"OOoo.-C\lOOOOO O~,..,.."<tOOOONONO"'O'- N\N N N -~'" _NN 00 _N - - 00 dd -;:~ 00 0-6 ¡;¡1<\ 00 cio 1<\1<\ 00 ci6 1\11<\ 00 cid 1\11<\ 00 dd _0 _ N 00 06 ~- NN 00 60 ~v_ _~N 00 06 O_OO~OOOOO.-O,..OOO~ ",0 _ N 00 60 ~1<\ 00 00 ",vo _ N 00 60 O"'ON~OOO_'-OOOOOOCCl O~OO_OOo.-OOO"'OOO o","'O~OOOO~OOOOOO~~~ 00 00 \I) \I) !II !II !II (ß gg38"<t8~gggg555g~õ 000 <31 <310 <310 QlOoo (\)<310 (\C\lC\lN§]!N§N]!NC\lC\I§§N æ:;ß;;;3;8~~OO<.C;:¡:j~ -;:';:CCI<.O~~ V o :.E ~ :: (\) .;;: ID ~ . ,- . 0 ~ 0 ~'" ~o- « ~ o ::¡ u; o ¡¡¡7å~'ffi'ffi ~ o Õ o " ...: (ß ...::::::~ QJ ...: ä5 >-...; 0 € <31 ",I- .~~«I~~~i!ai :;::: :3 Îfi (t "C::'ë ß 1ã û) r:- æ:§:I-=~$fijEl>~~ :0 E: <:11 C ~ C: >-'0 c;> (IJ ID 'æ ~ 5 '" <:11 X ~ ~ '0 E .::§I~~Ü£CO~<3I"8~ ¡¡¡S<:1lo..:;~;bU?~~ =.D 11:1 C\I"<t ' ç¡.¡ 1ij 1ij cc_ ~N&;!~ êij lrJ(O~ . t- o E o ,.. o " o " úJíUCU 000000 ,5.5.5 > > > 000 ~~~ 000 """ 000 .&.&.& 0: eJ~ oo.1i 7åg tJ E «00 o '; . - ß o " CJ)~CQ v 0\"' N N~3 6 0\ "'8 "'.... VNN o~~(O:g '" CJ)101ij ....~ ~ c- o" ~~ N 0_ ;.:!~~ ~~,..~,.. ~ CClCJ)Õ ~ NO>Õ ¡¡:« v v_ --t- - c- --t- .~~ =1Ü ~ t- ~5r:- !t~ffi 0- x 00 « ':;::,..0(\1 -\- '" N<O o 6 ~c-c- c-",v 00 00 C\I 8. § 06 V~N 00 00 00 N_N 00 00 oci "NN 00 00 dd "'"" 00 00 cc r--.g§ cd lOSS 00 60 ~88 00 dd <:o:gg 00 66 \t)8~ 00 60 cn;g~ 00 06 cn;g;g 00 06 ;.:!~;g 00 6d 0: '" 00 " , 13 « 0:. "'~ oo.1i "8 tJ E «00 . o ~ o " ~ o ~ § o . o ,6 o .;'.~ = 0 ,~ :;: :di ID~ ~¡" ~ '§,E ~ ~ ~o; >-~ Ë~ § 1ü :¡::: E ~õ H o 0 õ§. . 0 roO; o > >-0 -~ ~ II ~II: ?A~ ~-ii o 0 æ~ C) .g- 00"- . . @ ~ -õ. g-5 ~1ij "0 n õ; m fij >-. - . - . .!::: :;¡ - 0 .~ 0; 0 .5 ~ - - = (ß o 0 ,~ o 0 ~ 8 ã <IÍ .ffi~ Ë € '.1i E 0 gg> !!!'6 o , 0" ~ 0 ~~ 00 ,,'5 ~: 00 ~ II ..1= õ« U ~~ o~ E >- SE o 0 æ'; _0, II: 0 '" . 00 " a¡ " ~~ E2 00 0 z Æ >- 1" ~ o II: E g ~ o o N · .g ¡; o o - o " II: eJ ~ · 2 o II: o o ~ · · o o '" Õ o ~ " 00 o o <0 o E o t- E 'æ ;;; " II: ~ eJ 00 " -I 1ñ ~~ LU ~ o !: !!! Ó § § Zx ~õ ä5 g .j¡ 1)Ë II: 0 ~ E ¡¡:~ 'c:1n .9!':':,,- øðglø IV QI (II 3: ëii ~~ 2 E 'r;; ~ ~ Q) Q) ~ !U If-F~~ Enrollment Projection Consultants " o 0- ¡¡¡ x '6 o !l ~ .-0 0 O,..C\I .....000.-(\1 oooaN(\I 0000.....,.. O...OONW O,..,....-N\t) o co:¡ 00..-"<1" _ooo,..C\J o CQ,.. 0,.. \t) ON"''''''''~ N(t)OQt"JCCI oC')oot<)~ ~NON"'O> ~ONC\'" 00000 00000 C\lC\lC\lNN C')ON'<tOO> C\I (")(\10(0 I'- C")C\I_ ,; « ¡ij " == 'ê --en ~ 7å1õ-u1ð-¡ii 'ò ~ ;:: m '" , ~ '> (t i= &- 8 "w:.. ~ :;;:=æ~~ c:(/')-I-<:? '¡ij ð 55 t!i E Em~.!!!:V ~;;:~?µ '. 000000 ,..CO,..OC\l 000000 C\lCOOOC\l ,..0000- ,...-000,," .-0000,.. (')OOOOM ,..00,..,-0;<:1 000000 ,..0000..... C')OOOO~ (')0000"" II: "' 00 " tJ « QIfJ..-'-l}O 00000 00000 C\J(\C\lNN o "<I" 00<:0 cno> ....(\1 ,..0 '" " c , >-" QI"'; ,g! ~ ~~~~~ ~Æ~~~ <§O<3l$ ~'ffi?i~§ o '" ~1Ü õ> N 'I/),ñ 00 5t H c::: § ,s ~~ o Z- OOC\l"ffi R~~;!:~~ ~2S ~ 5: =f.}:5 ~Ëêi5 00_ ,,0- Õ E c; I:: o , 0 p~~ x S ì '" õ> '" ¡¡> ~- " x . c . 0; 0 0 0 " 0 - Î 0 00 Co LU () ::> ~ () c 0 0 ~ t- o- " « 0 0 õ. g '5 i< 0 0 0 õ. , E ~ , "" ~ ~ 00 0 ¡;¡ 2' '" {'. E 0 .q 0« ~a:¡j _::¡ x <ID~ Page 27 L N \ Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 , Fremont Union HiotJ Hehoo! Ulstnct ,,; .~ 1;; is õ o ~ u '" ~ 0> 'E ~ o ·õ ::J " o E E u- ~ <= õ § " ~ ~ o ·õ ::J o ! ~ 0: ~;: ~ <= "0;: ~ " ¡,g", " o ~'" "' "0 ~... " '" LU g", ." § o~ .E :¡¡ ë""" ~ LU ~ "M ~ "0 o ¡; õN " ~ D E o z .. o ";" " ~I M'" '" ~IN_ ,...,...,.....-tQC\I '" " ~;g2 ~ ~IO'" ~'" -'" " ON........O oooo.....-lt) ~ o "'- '" o o ..-C\lC\I..-O ;::;] o o ,..OMOO'<l'O N o o frio;JI.CJ _I'" ... "'0 '" o 0__ "'-- N...... c:ici ~ N_ 58 06 ~~~ 00 66 "'N~ ...~~ 60 "'~'" N~g co t;:NC\I , ;;~ dc:i ~ N ~ ~ 00 00 ~m'" N~~ 00 dc::i g:0)~ :go ci6 ';::N~ <10 66 c;;¡e~ 00 66 "'~~ N"'''' 00 cio ~~~ 00 "'''' M"'''' 00 cci 0: '" '" .. o U " 0:, ","0 "'1" (¡;Õ " 0 u E "'" N'" ...~ "'... ...10 8 'Q"t")IX)C7) NM " '" '" "'10 '" ,...N\l)<;! o O,...NC')'- 5 o ,.............(0) 5 o OON OONC\l1'-- o o o 00--8 o ONONt-. o o o ONC')l('~ o o <:\1,...,...""1./) 5 o OON ~"'g¡ o o OC')C\lLt'JO) 5 o O~ NO _M ~~ o o _N~ N'" o o o N'" o o o C')1l'>~ o " ...'" N o o O~~ ~...... MNN c:ici "''"'" ""55 00 -...'" NÕÕ cci ...~'" ""'õo dci ,"0'" NN_ 00 c:id ~~~ 00 d6 0"'''' Nõ5 c:ici "'~'" '-05 cia MO> C\lõ~ 00 ~~è!j 00 dci ;;~æ 00 cia N"'''' MNN 00 00 o~o MNM 00 dci ",...N ~~M 00 cic:i .. o U " ;, ~~ tJõ " ~ '" · · ~ · ¡;, " j ~ · £; .5 tII >= 1i ~ .0 0 ~~ ~~ 1! (;j ",E "E ~ · 0 D-, 1;;D E~ ,g .~ ¡g,õ §11 o. 'O~ ~.2 · ~ ~~ _"0 æ II ~o: 5!~ i!tf · . rP. ~ ø% "''' · ~ § ~ ~"- §.a =-æ :!.§ B:g g ~ õ'; ~ ¡ij ~~ ~ ~ .~ £; " .5 ~ ~ . .'!::: I/ ~ 0 0"0 ~ § :21/Î " " ~ §~ ~ " ~ g ~ 'Ë~ ." ~.§. ~'d! '0£ 1;; . ~1i is " -;;~ ;¡" a-ö ~£ ~lJ! E~ ~E ~~ æ"8' (,?ïii '" " !~ 8 in Eo!! '" 0 z ,;.c u;; · <= < 0> ~ .~ ð I , OJ ~ = ~ ~ u ~ 0: E g ~ o o N Æ 9 u o õ ~ · 0;- 0: '" ~ · · ;; 0: " o ~ ~ ~ '" " · "0 o ¡; ~ o <0 · Õ " e- .Q · õ3 o ffiJ "'9 . ~ _I ;TI~~ õ g'<J) '¡;Ii :~ Ó ::) c: z~:J <O~ ~ Or-O..........OMg; o o 0(")(0..-0 .-('1')\000 ........'<1',...,... ot'JCOOC\l;:::g o o OIO'<I"OQcnt() ~ o o N(o~O"'~:£ o o .....f'-I./'OOMI.O - '" o o N~~ ;::NOO~~ o o 0"'''' N N o 0: '" '" .. o :\' r';-mNO,.... ~mgg~ CD..-C\lC\I..... ~~~OOtD5 N c~ ,ê'q -JO=\'Ø!l) ~'ç~~~ t'l:5:-oaöO a... :t-o..... ëE~o'g ~ ~ t'I: J; ~ ~u.1JC\la... ~.. c:oXI"¿ §Ë:=-~"8 :;;= -æ.g:¡ij (1)\'0 o:¡: . N .~ œ "- E ~ ¥ ~ '" . ~ ~~a;(1;¡g~ C\lC1)C1)'<;f!l){:. ~~ é:i '- 0 u.~- <f) 0;- J:! d ~ M + .< '" ~ ...~ <'> o o <00 8 o ..-OOO.....~ 5 o !l)OOOll'Jf'o- '" o " C\I.....oo~o ~ o o '" o ~ :< u- '" "0 ~ . " u- '" ~ ~ " " Õ E " '" jjj (3. "" U-u- "'''' ;:(oð f'o-.....OOf'o- ~~ -5 o "'0> -5 o 0: '" <f) .. " u " ggg NNN ~~bffi NN .~~ u . . " . ~ ~t5ü e- . " ~ ~ ~ .2=.S!.æ õU)(I) §m~ =~3 rn_N . N .~ -. ~ " "- 5~E Q) '"ðj Œ OD'd! .~$ := ~~ª , , '" . ~ f'o-ll'J\,o(U g¡~~;§ I t: o ... g¡ ~ B . § tJ . ~ " u- '" œ ~ X ~ "- E X ~ "- " "0 " u- '" ~ e> -'" ~ ~ , ~ 'ò §" E zo:" <~Æ. '" t: o "0 o . e- o. " j . Õ E ~ jjj o e- OJ " rn 0. &f x ~ · ~ c- " .~~ . . z ð e- 1: C\I..-o..-C\lOtDll'J <I o ..........'<tC\JOO ON....~O.....f'o-td o o oo,....C\J(')OtD\'o ~ o o ,....O.........C\JNf'o-~ o o ,....oo..-..-!l)OO~ o o ON(')C\J.......-o>¡g o o 00.....0(')0'<1"0 M o o NO>ro '" o o ..-C\l....C\I,.... OC\lOOC\JNtOU'"J ~ o o OOO,....,....OC\JU"J 5 o O,......-C\JN....r---<:") ~ o " oof';-f'o- ~~~ <OM~ 0>00> "'0'" _N ~M:::æ&~~ ~ £; 21 ;;" ~~ E ~ 15" ,,0. ~g ~ -: æ'æ ¿ 5 Q) ~.s ~ s E £ u:i c: ~.ü) ~ oðg~[~~ ã:.!!:!.c: d ~:;E ..:.: \'0<.,) ~_ ~ ð~:¡ij~1õ~ -. -æm " Bê ~ ~ ~.2 £~ " ~ .S ~ u-z . N .~ ~ "- E rn ~ ¥ ~ '" ! '<1".-'<1' <:")<.0 CD 'ia ~g5~:¡;~:2~ '0 o ~ o " o 11- " . 0. 1;; " . "I ~~ 0." ..1ii~ oEg u- . <IJ' Enrollment Projection Consultants <a'-C\lOO>R¡ o !l)NOOf'o-<:") '" o o 00 - ~ o " (\........O"'"<:") ~ o o <:")NOO!l)f'o- :g o (oOOOOOf'o- o o '<1'000'<1'<:") ~ o o <:")000<:")0 ~ o o -~ -~ o " U"J,.........Or--C") '" o o tDOoo<oo '" o o <:")..........-<00 '" o " 0: '" '" .. o Ü " (O}C\I..-O gggg C\lC\IC\IN fßf'o-tDtO~ ~:t :? Rª]j c: E'æ en-J ;a:crig œ'O :ô (tI C\I'8Q)~ ~ffi~-J ~J¡ò1ü 8~õ T'""f'o-~ . N .;¡; œ I ~!! ~ ~ ~ :' '" ! C\I....U"JC\lm ~ffi~~~ ~ ~ < ~"8 ~.. E ~ -~ ~"- o .~ "0- CD 0(") ""N oXIOO.-o:o ~~ o o ~OC\l"'~gJ~ o o C')O(\"'U")~ 5 o (').....N(O}O>COŒ -5 o N""C\I.....'<I"t"')C') -5 o ""C\lC\lIl)O:O~ð3 o o oq-U")<DC\ltDC"':I'<t NN o o NM M8 <0 U'"Jr--C\l(O}or--co _NN o o U'"JlfJ:;: ~ ... C')<Di.OtO!l)l,l)<D NN o " O>~;:tO~ r--<oCDiXIiXI ŒCDOJŒŒ OJO'IŒC)C) ~~õæ::ffi N..-C"':IO'I ~ ~ . ~ . ~ O)~ü :go II) :!! ::? ~ .. = 2 ~ . (tIQ..S!:û5 ~;g~ ~CDÒ -80 N:¡¡ j¡ . ;; . 8 I, ~ . e>~ 05 ~~ j =g C:'€: B ~ ~ 0 i¡;O 1;: ~ ~ .gg. ~ ~~:' bSg~~~~ C'IJ(,,)<;")l.I1l.11¡- e- o. " Page 28 Proiected Enroflments from ?OO5 to 2015 1:1 '0 ;;; i5 "8 ,; "' '" '" "E o o '" :> "6 " ~ u. ~ ,; .5 -- Enrollment projection Consultants " a: g~ ~ :; '"0 . - " "' :I:'" "6 E ~ '" ü: '" . ,,'" "' W ~ -'" õ . ë ~ E 8- 0; > ~ " o o , ",", ,E '" E! Õ., C W 111" ~ " , iñ _N o :;; ~ E , Z " , ü'" « 'S OJ ~ ~ o ~ ~ a: g "' o o N 8 õ " · · E! · a: § ~ o ~ '" ë ~ " a "' o o '" · :ë ~ , .2 § ~ " ¿.; " · "- gj · õ o 8. 0. « ¡§J "'1 , " _I ¡;¡:g'§ W>-OJ õ ~.ª .gÕ5 :I: ~,~ ~ Zðl- :I: ;;;\ ~ t") C\I 0 Q)\., -- M ... U"Q)C7) .,., 00 ~ ..."'''' 158 do "JO"-"'- C\lOC\lC\J "'iH'" 08 00 MO_Oo:ttetO 88 00 I;\IOOOC\ltOtO -" 00 66 MOC\JOU"I/)a) 1\8 dd 00 0008~ 00 66 _0 ...-0 C\la) f"o- -'" 00 60 C\I........_I.O!I1CO .,,, 00 00 O_f"o-~g¡ 00 06 t")OC\l_CO"JQ;) "'''' 00 00 ",- MOO C\\J"Ju" CO :g8 cia .....000 ....~~ 00 00 .,"'''' "''' 00 00 MOO_ 00. ",,, <n.1! -æõ a 0 u E «<n " . a;~8a; 111 0 0111 §.C\C\E C\t")"Ot"...O (")C\C\(")"" o ¿ <'1:1 j~ " ~ C ~ .¡;; ~ C g-" «"- ~ co "'0 <'1:1 .0 Q)'Ë 0 (f) ~gß~ ~ (ij.:2 a; "'Co>.... 1$;:::':" -f'-oæ ~æ...~ ., - N sl/) ~ ~ ~ æ 'æ "'C Q) "'C ~: Q) is. ¡;; ü Q) E (!),g ~i œ ~~5.~i 'ê~~Eo'ê 0>.5 = . .0. .! ~ ! (")LOf"o-ll'J15 ",Q;):;}~~ ~ C C ~ ~.2 Q)~ a: ~ " E ~~ go ~\ 5:« " . b a:1:5a: ~ <I:(:c en N o ~ J:J C , o a: <n a: ::; OJ .5 a: '" <n ~ '" " o o · ~ · 1:1 'C '" i5 õ o ,; <n '" '" :f § '" :> · " <ñ '" · W · ,; ,5 ~ Õ. " · " :;; E" -" · E .ê '" C Õ :§ 8 o o o o o o o o o o o 8 N " '" -¡¡; " " ~ ;: ;:: ó is ~ '" ~ OJ ¥ ;! "0 001=00 ::;«"' OJ . Fremont Union Hiah School District 1'! ~ E 0. o ~ ~ " ~ § 111 '2 ~ , " , ~~ ¡,.~ . . ,,0. § ~ ~" ~ ~ " 0. ~ ~ - § ~~ '0 C 8.:;' ~~ ài ~ '60", :2'g ~ . " " ~41 E:o 50! ~ C :!.~ §~ õ]l ~~ ~.;;; ãi .¡ ~ .-ê ~ § ~ " ;¡ ª æ~ ",go (J) ïñ ~~ Š ~ "¡" § ~ = > .- 0.", § ~ õ 8- (¡¡ID ~~ -" ë i:; - C ~ . ,; 0. ,5 § '" 0 ë è ~ ª a . .2~ «¡ïij Ell "iij@ § "'. " " $: ''2 C , ~ ~ "¡j1!! ".,. õ ~ "'~ ~ ~ a~ ;z e:!~ §~ . 5 ~õ 5111 £ Ë 2? g. :%! a: ~ g~ ¡"' ¡;~ 8 ¡,; E.!!I ",0 , Z .9 ]I ~ .~ ,- ~ " i3 z ~ õ. E · · ~ ¡¡ , :;r '" · ,5 C · ,~ " :ë !:. Page 29 L ./ , .-,' \ '. ,,' 7 L , Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union HlafJ scnoOJ UIS£rIcr Appendix 84, Part 1: Detail for Table 7 on Projected New Housing in the !=Junnwall'! ESO aortlnn of the Fremont Union HSD Planning Current HS Housing Pro!ected Additional HausinQ Units in 12 Months to October 1 of Tatalto Area Atnd. Area Type 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oct. 2015 13 Fremont SMR 20 20 40 16 Fremont An 80 143 186 127 50 40 100 80 25 25 856 18 Fremont An 29 29 19 Fremont An 50 50 21 Fremont An 65 35 100 26 Fremont SFO 2 2 3 3 3 3 16 62 Fremont An 20 40 40 30 30 160 62 Fremont SMR 20 20 63 Fremont An 54 54 70 Fremont An 17 17 76 Fremont An 40 105 105 250 83 Homestead An 50 50 86 Fremont An 10 10 86 Fremont SFD 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 20 87 Fremont An 2 2 4 105 Homestead An 8 8 109 Homestead An 6 6 118 Homestead An 25 25 50 118 Homestead SMR 15 15 30 123 Fremont An 92 100 100 50 50 50 100 120 120 782 126 Fremont SFD 4 2 2 2 2 2 15 129 Fremont An 70 50 120 140 Fremont An 33 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 143 140 Fremont SFD 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 145 Fremont An 23 23 F;' 146 Fremont An 30 25 7 7 69 150 Fremont An 60 23 83 180 Homestead SFD 3 3 3 9 183 Fremont An 20 16 36 All SESD An 306 304 301 282 282 302 300 278 275 270 2,900 SMR 0 0 0 20 20 0 0 15 15 20 90 SFD 5 7 8 7 7 7 9 10 10 10 80 Tota! 311 311 309 309 309 309 309 303 300 300 3,070 Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 30 ., \ L Proiected Enroflments from 2005 to 2015 , Fremont I join" Hiah Schoo! District Appendix 84. Part 2: Detail for Table 7 on Projected New Housing In the Cunertino Union ESD aorticn of the Fremont Union HSO Planning Current HS Housing projected Additional Units in 12 Months to October 1 of Total Area City Atnd. Area Type 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 to 2015 226 Sunnyvale Fremont SFD 4 5 231 Sunnyvale Fremont ATT 20 20 40 242 Los Altos Homestead SFD 2 4 244 Los Altos Homestead SFD 3 257 Cupertino Homestead SFD 6 6 263 Sunnyvale Homestead SFD 2 4 275 Sunnyvale Fremont SFD 2 5 277 Sunnyvale Fremont SMA 7 7 14 281 Sunnyvale Homestead SFD 25 25 283 Sunnyvale Homestead SFD 4 4 285 Sunnyvale Homestead SFD 35 40 75 288 Sunnyvale Homestead SMA 53 13 68 300 Sunnyvale Fremont ATT 20 20 40 300 Sunnyvale Fremont SFD 5 5 10 308 Sunnyvale Fremont SFD 2 2 317 Sunnyvale Fremont SFD 4 5 321 Sunnyvale Fremont SFD 8 2 2 2 15 340 Cupertino Cupertino ATT 60 20 80 Cupertino SFA 20 30 50 391 Cupertino Manta Vista SFD 2 3 405 Cupertino Manta Vista SFD 8 426 Cupertino Manta Vista ATT 23 23 46 427 Cupertino Manta Vista SFD 3 3 Appendix 84, Part 2, Page 1 of 2 Enrollment Projection CDnsultants Page 31 , ! Proiected Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 rremonr UnIon Hlon .:";)CflUUJ U/SUIGI " Appendix 84. Part 2: Detail for Table 7 on Projected New Housing In the CUDp.rtino Union ESD Dortlon of the Fremont Union HSD Planning Current HS Housing Projected Additional Units in 12 Months to October 1 of Total Area City Atnd. Area Type 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 to 2015 443 Cupertino Cupertino ATT 40 40 20 100 446 Cupertino Cupertino ATT 57 50 102 102 100 100 100 62 0 0 673 455 Cupertino Monta Vista 5FD 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 23 478 Cupertino Monta Vista SFD 32 31 31 94 483 Cupertino Monta Vista SFD 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 4 2 2 25 ;" 487 SaraJuninc Monta Vista SFD 4 494 Cupertino Manta Vista SFD 2 2 4 504 Cupertino Monta Vista SFD 40 40 505 Cupertino Manta Vista ATT 6 30 30 66 510 Saratoga Monta Vista SFD 9 521 San Jose Lynbrook ATT 10 5 5 20 522 San Jose Lynbrook SFD 3 4 6 7 20 540 Cupertino Monta Vista SFD 4 4 4 14 561 Cupertino Cupertino ATT 11 12 23 563 Cupertino Cupertino ATT 71 71 142 565 Cupertino Cupertino SMA 10 5 15 585 Cupertino Cupertino ATT 20 20 40 585 Cupertino Cupertino SMA 8 7 5 5 25 615 San Jose Lynbrook ATT 20 20 20 60 615 San Jose Lynbrook SMA 10 10 10 30 633 San Jose Lynbrook SFD 9 ~; 10 l' All CUESD ATT 162 162 162 182 160 120 100 92 95 95 1.330 SMA 53 13 8 7 0 0 17 22 15. 15 150 SFD 82 80 78 48 46 46 29 21 20 20 470 Total 297 255 248 237 206 166 146 135 130 130 1,950 Appendix 84, Part 2, Page 2 of 2 Enrolfment Projectìon Consultants Page 32 f' t, F:< ( , , ; , I , .-/ " Proiected F:nro/lments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont I inion Hiah School District Appendix C1, Part 1: Comparison of Births in ZIp Code Areas 94086,94087 and 94089 to Corresponding Sunnyvale ESD Kindergarten Enrollments Total Births in Total SESD Ratio of Zip Code Areas Resident Kindergarten 94086.94087 Kindergarten Population Birth Year and School Enrollment Date and 94089 population* to Births 1997 Births and Oct. 2002 Kindergarten Students 2.015 657 .~ 1998 Births and Oct. 2003 Kindergarten Students 2,116 657 .... 31°/0 1999 Births and Oct. 2004 Kindergarten Students 2,050 656 32% 2000 Births and Oct. 2005 Kindergarten Students 2,053 707 34% Average Relevant to Kindergarten in last Four School Years 33% Potential Potential Kindergarten Kindergarten Enrollment using Population at Current Total of Averaqe Ratio 16 IDA Students 2001 Births and Oct. 2006 Kindergarten Students 1.982 645 661 2002 Births and Oct. 2007 Kindergarten Students 1.952 635 651 2003 Births and Oct. 2008 KIndergarten Students 2,008 653 669 * The portion of the kindergarten enrollment each year that was not incoming inter-district attendance (IDA). Sources: State Center for Health Statistics (births) and EPC (kindergarten totals, based on SESD student records) Note: These figures are not the main 1actor in the kindergarten projections. Student population trends by location and projected new housing afe the primary factors, with modest revisions based on the above data. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 33 '. ,. ) ! Proiected Enrollments from POGS to 2015 , Fremont Un/on Hlan bcnoOl ulsrrtcr Appendix C1, Part 2: Comparison of Births in Zip Code Areas 94024, 94087,95014,95051,95070 and 95129 to Corresponding Cupertino Union ESO Kindergarten Enrollments Birth Year and School Enrollment Date Total Births in Zip Code Areas 94024,94087, 95014,95051, 95070 and 95129 Total CUESD Resident Kindergarten Population' Ratio of Kindergarten Population to Births 1997 Births and Oct. 2002 Kindergarten Students 1998 Births and Oct. 2003 Kindergarten Students 2,962 3,020 1,560 1.605 53% 53% , ,. 1999 Births and Oct. 2004 Kindergarten Students 2000 Births and Oct. 2005 Kindergarten Students 2,972 3,150 1,547 1,795 52% 57% Average Relevant to Kindergarten in last Four Schoo! Years 54% 2002 Births and Oct. 2007 Kindergarten Students Potential Potential KIndergarten Kindergarten Enrollment using Population at Current Total of Averaqe Ratio 161DA Students 2,982 1,612 1.628 3,109 1,681 1.697 3,168 1,713 1,729 2001 Births and Oct. 2006 Kindergarten Students 2003 Births and Oct. 2008 Kindergarten Students . The portion of the kindergarten enrollment each year that was not incoming inter-district attendance (IDA). Sources: State Center for Health Statistics (births) and EPC (kindergarten totals, based on CUESD student records) I'. I Note: These figures are not the main factor In the kindergarten proJections. Student population trends by .Iocation and projected new housing are the primary factors, with modest revisions based on the above data. Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 34 / , ProiAded Enrollments from 2005 to 2015 Fremont Union Hiah School District -- Appendix C2, Part 1: Projected Sunnyvale ESO Enrotlment, October of 2005 to 2015 Early Actual and projected Enrollment by Grade (jncl. SDC) Oct. of K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K,5 8,8 Total 2005' 723 689 678 654 692 629 596 669 634 4,065 1,899 5,964 2006 667 757 679 685 647 685 635 592 663 4.120 1.890 6,010 2007 673 697 746 687 679 640 691 632 588 4,122 1,911 6,033 2008 675 704 686 755 681 673 646 886 628 4,174 1,960 6,134 2009 681 706 693 694 749 678 682 643 683 4,201 2,008 6,209 2010 685 713 696 702 689 746 688 679 638 4.231 2,005 6,236 2015 694 723 710 715 712 704 709 699 694 4,258 2.102 6,360 Projected SESD students from new housing through 2010 64 24 88 Proiected SESD students from new housing through 2015 127 60 187 . actual October 5, 2005, enrollment using student files provided to EPC by the Sunnyvale ESO Note: projections based on current facilities, program and level of inter-district control Appendix C2, Part 2: Projected Cupertino Union ESO Enrollment, October of 2005 to 2015 Early Actual and Projected Enrollment by Grade (inct. SDC) Oct. of K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K-5 6-8 Total 2005'· 1,811 1,728 1,835 1.820 1,846 1,857 1,902 1,871 1,898 10,897 5,671 16,588 2006 1,648 1,870 1.793 1,895 1.869 1,897 1,903 1,929 1,894 10,972 5,726 16,698 2007 1,702 1,807 1,939 1.848 1,944 1,918 1,940 1,929 1,949 11,158 5,818 16,976 2008 1.735 1,866 1,873 1,999 1,894 1,994 1,961 1.965 1,950 11.361 5,876 17,237 2009 1.725 1.901 1,934 1,930 2.049 1,940 2,037 1,983 1,982 11,479 . 6,002 17,481 2010 1,720 1,889 1,969 1,992 1,977 2,098 1,979 2,080 1.999 11 ,645 6.038 17,683 2015 1.668 1.833 1.902 1,976 2.036 2.093 2.145 2,185 2,162 11 ,508 6.492 18,000 projected CUESD students fram new housing through 2010 299 123 422 Projected CUESO students from new housing through 2015 433 220 653 ... actual October 5, 2005, enrollment using student files provided to EPC by the Cupertino Union ESO Note: projections based an current facilities, program and leve! of ìnter·district control Enrollment Projection Consultants Page 35 '. ì / , \ , I I 1_, ! I 1._-, ¡.n, -::;: ~~:i:-! l_ L r·· n' i ¡ ì f 1- r I L I I i L ! L <2, t ) 131 JO(p 15.1.1 10/19/04 FREMONT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT MEMORANDUM January 24,2006 TO: Board of Trustees FROM: Dr. Stephen R. Rowley, Superintendent of Schools PREPARED BY: Shelby Spain, Director - Guidance, Attendance, and Alternative Programs SUBJECT: Enrollment and Capacity Projections The Board was provided with a copy of the enrollment projection student prepared by Enrollment Projection Consultants. The report details past and future enrollment for the Fremont Union High School District as well as our feeder districts, Cupertino Union School District and Sunnyvale Elementary School District. Staff will present a detailed report to the Board during the Study Session. Of immediate importance to the District is our projected enrollment for the 2006-07 school year. As outlined in the report, Fremont Union's enrollment is expected to increase to 10,138 as ofCBEDS 2006 ITom 9,917 as ofCBEDs 2005. This is a growth of 221 students. Specific enrollments for our five comprehensive high schools are projected to be as follows: School Oct. 2005 Oct. 2006 Chan!!e Cupertino 1,539 1,592 + 53 Fremont 1,824 1,866 + 42 Homestead 2,085 2,202 +117 Lvnbrook 1,853 1,816 - 37 Monta Vista 2,464 2,507 + 43 The enrollment projection study is quite comprehensive and reflects enrollment growth for the District over the next several years. As detailed in the report, there are two principal reasons for our growth. First, we are seeing a growth in enrollment from existing housing. Even larger numbers of students are graduating into the high schools ITom our feeder districts, primarily impacting Cupertino HS and Fremont HS. Secondly, the District is impacted by new housing, the majority of which is concentrated within those same two attendance areas. 15.1.2 10/19/04 As mentioned above, staff will provide the Board with a detailed overview of the report and projections. Briefly stated, the report emphasizes the following points: · District enrollment is expected to increase by 22 I students in 2006 and an additional 148 students in 2007. · The gain of 349 students over the next two years is significantly below the 615 student increase the District experienced in the past two school years. · District enrollment in 2015 could be as high as 1200 students over CBEDS 2005 (9917). · Overall growth will not be evenly distributed among the existing attending areas. Fremont and Cupertino are expected to show the greatest increase with each adding over 150 students by 2008 and potentially 700+ in the next decade. · Monta Vista should have a decline in enrollment after the 2006-07 school year. · Homestead could jump by 118 students in 2006, but should be relatively stable thereafter. · Lynbrook will remain the same or decline. It is expected that Lynbrook will have a much smaller enrollment that the other schools by 2009. In addition to our enrollment, it is important that we consider the capacities of our schools. Although much of our focus on capacities has been the effect of new development within the City of Cupertino, the City of Sunnyvale has also approved several new developments, many of which will impact Fremont High School. To provide the Board with a clearer picture of the impact on capacity, we have prepared the attached table summaries for your review. Staff will provide the Board with more detailed explanation of each of the attached during the Study Session. , :r o ! . ~ :r ,,' ~ .... ~ o ¡¡ o o ~ :r ,,' ~ '"' c ~ ~ c c o :r ,,' ~ ::: o o " ~ " ." ;¡ 3 o 3 :r ,,' ~ :r ,,' ~ Q ~ ~ " ~ " ~ ~ ~ ,. ~ ~ ~ ~ [ ~ 1- ~ ~ o ~ , , · ~ ~ § ~ ~ ~ ~ .' ~ ~ ~ ¡ ~ § , · -. i ~ 1- ~ · · ¡ , · ~ ~ Q ~ '" ~ 00 o ~ N ~ '"' IN = g", ~" ~ N o ~ ~ N I:: ~ ~ N N ~ ~ " o ~ '-' '" I,,", .~ :t.~ o _. " ~ ~ * ~ ~ '^ " 00 ~ '" '" N ~ ~ ~ N ~ W m'"'::: · . 0.. N =" ~ N ~ ~ W N :2 ~ 00 ;;; 00 S!Q ;¡¡; ~ i · . . ~ ~ ~ N o ~ 00 ~ tJ :¡¡ ~ ~ o m'"'ë: · . !l!!. N o ~ o N ~ ~ ~ tJ 00 ~ 6 '"' "oo ¡¡~ ;¡ ~ ; ~ · .. N v: tJ N ~ t: ¡;¡ ¡;; o o "1 " m " " II :r o 3 Œ ~ . ~ :r ,,' ~ N N :2 ~ '-' '" N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N W :¡¡ õ ~ N ~ ~ 00 o " " N ~ ~ ~ ~ N ~ N W ¡¡ t .... . ~ a o ~ :r <; 00 w ~ ~ ~ ~ N =" ~ ~ 00 o N o ~ o N W ~ ~ s: ~ ,.. " N ~ <> ~ ~ N o ~ o w ~ ::: o ~ ~ " :r ,,' ~ N t; 00 ~ ~ òo '" t: t ~ ~ N ~ ~ '" o ~ N t ~ ~ ~ '" '" t: t õ ~ N ~ ~ N ~ o '"' c ~ . , c c o :r ,,' ~ e: ~ ~ w '" N :2 w ~ ~ ~ tJ 00 ~ ~ t: 00 ~ òo '" N :2 ~ ~ ~ tJ N ~ " o 3 :r ;; ~ II ~ Oi '"' IN ., sa ~ ~ ~ I,,", · ~ c;~ o _ " " N o :;¡ i · ::: · . a.>< 00 o ,,'"' -. ., ila ;¡ '" 3 ::: · . . ~ ~ o i · - ~ · . !:!.!!. N ;;; '"' "., _. '" ii'" ;¡ '" c - · ~ · . .. ~ '"' IN ., g", œ" ~ ~ ~ òo " '"' I" . .~ c; ~ o _. " N o :;¡ m'"'::: · . 0.. s: S!Q ilê ~ {{2 3 ::: · . . ~ ~ o m'"'ë: · . !l!!. N ~ '"' "oo ~a ;¡ '" o - · ~ · . .. :r o 3 Œ ~ . ~ :r ,,' ~ N :¡¡ ~ ~ ~ " " N ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ N W :¡¡ N tJ N N o N '" '-' '" N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ N N W :¡¡ o ~ .... ~ o ~ a o ~ :r ,,' ~ 00 ~ w ~ ~ '-' '" N ~ ~ ~ ~ w N o ~ o N ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ '" '" N ~ ~ ~ :;: N o ~ o t: ~ ::: o ~ ~ " :r ,,' ~ N ~ i: ~ ~ '" " t: t ~ ~ N ~ ~ N œ ~ N ~ o ~ ~ œ '" '" t: t w ~ ~ ~ ~ w ~ '"' c ~ ~ c o o :r ,,' ~ ~ w ~ ~ ~ '^ '" N :2 ~ ~ N ~ tJ œ ~ ~ ~ N ~ ~ " " N :2 ~ ;; ~ tJ w ~ " o 3 :r ,,' ~ II 00 N ~ '"' IN = ~a ~ 00 00 òo " I,,", .~ ct. ~ o _. " N o :;¡ m'"'::: · . 0.. N N ~ sdJ ¡;¡g¡ ~~ · . . ~ ~ o i · - ~ · . a.!!. ~ ~ '"' "oo ~a ~ fl? o - · ~ · . .. 00 ~ ~ '"' IN = 0", :<" ~ ~ o '" '" I,,", · ~ ct.~ o _. " N o ~ w m'"'::: · . !:!. ~ 00 ~ "Q _. '" ii'" , ~ ~ ~ · . . ~ ~ o i · - ~ · . !:!.!!. o ~ '"' "., ~a ~ fl? o - · ~ · . .. n . , , ~ =. 1(0 ." , .2. ~ :¡. ~ Co '" = , ~ 3" ~ =. ::> ; · 3 :¡: õ' · ~ · ~ ~ [ · o () --. w ~ <-----... ~ c::, a", if " , · 1\ ~ · q '" · · ~ O· ~ == t'" a:: (") 'oj If m ;r ~ ..., = ... ., 3 = 0 " '" ::; ¡¡ of!. '" = '" 3 .. '" ~ 2- 0 c' ... " ... 0 '" .. 0 ~ => ~ = ~ :3 '" 0 ~ 5' ~ 3 §' " :>:" 0 == <to Co .. 't == ~ = CD õ' == " Oõ' is' Oõ' == Oõ' '" ::; => ~ Oõ' '" Oõ' '" ~ '" ~ '" 0 ",' <to '" III ". " en ![ "C " '" (") III ". " N ~ N N N I~ 0; n 0 ". W W W w a- ~ ::;: 2- 0 ... 00 N ... ... 0 a- ~ 00 00 'C 0 '< '" ¡;; '" ¡¡;. 1;> ::; :; N ~ ¡¡ (") ¡¡ Vo ~ ~ 0 00 'C ~ N I~ " c :-' -...I ~ 0 'C ,," .... => N V. en ~ ~ 00 0 ~ " '" !f '" -. " '" !f ~ -. <J 0 0 ~ 0 ..., ., ~ S: I Q: N N N N N a:: s, a- ... Vo <:> <:> " 'C ~ ... ~ Vo " b' ... a- w ~ w " 11;' '" oQ -" ~ ~ , , ::;tr:\ ~ w <:> N w Vo ;>0 rn ... w ~ W 'C ... '" ¡;; 00 Vo Vo -...I a- ~ ~ '" '" " ~ ". " ., a .. I 0- N N N ~ ~ - §' " " w <:> ~ -...I -...I Co => <:> -...I -...I N a- '" <to 00 <:> '" w <:> !!!. => ¡¡ ~ ., ~ ., (") " ., 00; " , 00 =;t'j ~ , a- ~ ¿" ;>0 :r. w 00 ... N 00 ... '" 00 'C => 'C Vo 'C '" .. " = Co ~ " '" '" 1ft !!!. ¡¡;. ~ ¡;¡ ~ i'3 <:> <:> (j) ~ :,> (j) -u s::