Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutCC 07-07-2026 Item No. 12 Ballot Measure Survey Results_Consultant PresentationPage 1 June 2026 City of Cupertino: 2026 UUT Renewal and Parkland Rezoning Measure Survey July 7, 2026 Page 2 June 2026 Key Take-Aways The City of Cupertino commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of likely November 2026 voters. The key take-aways are: A General Plan Amendment ballot measure to require future rezoning of parks or open space be placed on a future ballot was favored by 69.5% of voters. A ballot measure renewing the utility users tax (UUT) at the existing rate, without increasing the tax rate, adding video services and extending the term to “until ended by voters” was favored by 66.4% voters. Neither a UUT increase of 1 percent or an increase of 0.6 percent were viable at this time. Page 3 June 2026 Methodology Overview I Data Collection Landline (17), cell (125), text to online (272), and email to online interviewing (20) Universe 24,643 Likely November 2026 Voters Fielding Dates June 3 to 17, 2026 Interview Length 25 minutes Sample Size n=434 Margin of Error November 2026 Voters ±4.66% Note: The data have been stratified and weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely November 2026 voters in the City of Cupertino in terms of their gender, age, ethnic surname, presence of children in the household, political party type, household party type, homeownership, and geography. While another survey appears to have been conducted by an unknown sponsor at the same time and likely had an impact on the response rate, response rate itself is not part of the calculation of the survey margin of error (population size, sample size, response distribution and alpha coefficient are the components of the algorithm). This second survey may have complicated the survey environment, this is not of concern to the data accuracy given that n=434 interviews were completed (typical for a City of Cupertino’s voter population would be between 300 to 400 completed interviews) and in an actual election there will be much more “noise” in the background including but not limited to, National Congressional mid-term debate, gubernatorial campaigns, statewide ballot measures, as well as local races. Further, the survey methodology stratification and weighting noted above ensure that the final sample is representative of the likely November 2026 voters in the City of Cupertino within the stated margin of error. Page 4 June 2026 Methodology Overview II The data have been stratified and weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely November 2026 voters in the City of Cupertino in terms of their gender, age, ethnic surname, presence of children in the household, education, homeownership, political party type, household party type, among other factors. Column N %Count ∑ or Mean Likely Nov 2026 Voter Male 49.0%213 Female 51.0%221 Unknown 0.0%0 18-29 11.6%50 30-39 10.3%45 40-49 12.3%54 50-64 32.8%142 65+32.9%143 Not coded 0.1%0 East and South Asian 56.4%245 European 24.8%108 Hispanic and Portuguese 3.6%16 Likely African-American 0.0%0 Other 5.3%23 Unknown 9.9%43 Gender Age Broad Ethnic Groupings Page 5 June 2026 Methodology Overview III Column N %Count ∑ or Mean Likely Nov 2026 Voter Inferred Married 18.1%78 Inferred Single 1.2%5 Married 37.4%162 Single 16.2%70 Unknown 27.2%118 Yes 36.2%157 No 52.1%226 Unknown 11.7%51 Did not complete high school likely 0.0%0 Completed high school likely 4.5%20 Attended but did not complete college likely 0.4%2 Completed college likely 36.2%157 Attended vocationa/technical school likely 0.0%0 Completed graduate school likely 28.7%125 Unknown 30.2%131 Yes 1.7%7 No 98.3%427 Homeowner 65.2%283 Probable Home Owner 0.0%0 Renter 20.8%90 Unknown 14.0%61 Presence of Children Education Veteran Homeownership Status Marital Status Page 6 June 2026 Methodology Overview IV Column N %Count ∑ or Mean Likely Nov 2026 Voter American Independent 1.3%6 Democratic 47.3%205 Green 0.4%2 Libertarian 0.4%2 Natural Law 0.0%0 Non-Partisan 34.9%152 Other 0.0%0 Peace and Freedom 0.6%2 Reform 0.0%0 Republican 15.0%65 Unknown 0.0%0 No data 0.1%0 Dem 29.9%130 Dem&Ind 26.5%115 Dem&Rep 5.5%24 Dem&Rep&Ind 4.0%17 Ind 20.4%89 Rep 7.5%33 Rep&Ind 6.1%27 No data 0.0%0 Individual Party Household Party Type Page 7 June 2026 Key Findings Page 8 June 2026 Favorability Rating of the Job the City of Cupertino is Doing to Provide City Services 0%20%40%60%80%100% Nov 2024 Survey - Adults 18+ June 2026 Survey - Likely November 2026 Voters 25.5% 20.0% 47.0% 48.4% 17.4% 13.5% 2.9% 5.0% 7.2% 13.0% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable DK/NA 68.4% 72.5% Page 9 June 2026 Favorability Rating of the Job the City of Cupertino is Doing to Effectively Manage and Spend Taxpayer Dollars and Public Funds 0%20%40%60%80%100% Likely November 2026 Voters 9.8%40.3%17.6%10.5%21.8% Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable Very unfavorable DK/NA 50.1% Page 10 June 2026 Initial Support for Amending the City of Cupertino General Plan for Parkland Rezoning Shall an ordinance amending the City of Cupertino General Plan be adopted to mandate that any attempt to rezone parks, parklands or open space to residential, commercial or industrial, or any proposal for residential, commercial or industrial development in parks, parkland or open space, must be placed before Cupertino voters and secure two-thirds support in the City’s next general election be adopted?Probably No 10.0% DK/NA 7.8% Definitely No 12.8% Definitely Yes 43.6% Probably Yes 25.9% Total Support 69.5% Page 11 June 2026 Initial Support for Measure to Increase UUT to Maintain Essential City Services Shall the measure to maintain essential city services such as: • public safety, • streets, • parks and open spaces, • community programs, and • other general city services, by replacing Cupertino’s expiring 2.4% tax with a 3.4% tax on electricity, gas, and telecommunications, and adding video services, until ended by voters, providing $6,900,000 annually, maintaining senior citizens' exemptions, requiring annual audits and public spending disclosure, be adopted? Probably No DK/NA 10.5% Definitely No 29.0% Definitely Yes 17.8% Probably Yes 26.6% Total Support 44.4% Page 12 June 2026 Features of the UUT Measure I Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2. Somewhat More Likely Somewhat Less Likely Much Less Likely -2 -1 0 1 2 D. Maintain emergency and disaster preparedness programs I. Maintain safe pedestrian sidewalks and crosswalks L. Maintain safe bike paths and safe routes to schools for children P. Reduce wildfire risk by controlling flammable brush and maintaining safe evacuation routes F. Reduce property crime A. Maintain and repair local streets H. Maintain parks and open space B. Maintain rapid 911 emergency response times 0.72 0.74 0.75 0.80 0.83 0.85 0.92 0.93 Much More Likely 70.6% Ti e r 1 62.8%T2 63.4% Page 13 June 2026 Features of the UUT Measure II Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2. Somewhat More Likely Somewhat Less Likely Much Less Likely -2 -1 0 1 2 O. Maintain facilities and grounds at Blackberry Farm K. Maintain City facilities E. Protect community-based policing N. Maintain trees and landscaping along city streets J. Reduce traffic on City streets M. Protect air quality C. Maintain neighborhood police patrols G. Maintain senior and youth programs 0.37 0.38 0.51 0.53 0.54 0.57 0.63 0.70 Much More Likely 61.0% Ti e r 2 - Co n t ’ d 46.3% 56.8% Ti e r 3 53.1% Page 14 June 2026 Informational Statements I Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 P. You never know when an accident, disaster or medical emergency will occur. This measure will ensure rapid 9-1- 1 emergency services are ready when you need them… N. In the event of a heart attack, stroke, medical emergency or accident, seconds can be the difference between life and death. This measure will help ensure a… H. The measure will continue to give Cupertino local control over local funds for local needs. No funds can be taken by the state or federal governments D. The measure requires independent financial audits, and yearly reports to the community to ensure that all funds are spent as promised C. This measure requires public disclosure of the spending of every penny from this measure F. Large businesses will pay their fair share, so homeowners don't shoulder the entire cost of maintaining Cupertino city services 1.06 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.24 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely 70.7% Ti e r 1 68.3% Page 15 June 2026 Informational Statements II Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 U. Without the measure the existing tax will expire and the City will be forced to make cuts to critical city services A. This measure will maintain traffic enforcement to keep drivers, pedestrians, bicyclists and children traveling to school safe S. If the measure fails, the cost of maintaining police services through the Sheriff's Office will put other vital city services such as street maintenance, park and recreation services or youth and senior programs at risk G. The measure will ensure funding to maintain local parks and open space I. Without the measure Cupertino streets will begin to deteriorate creating potholes, causing damage to vehicles and reconstructing deteriorating streets will become more expensive 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 1.00 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely 65.8% Ti e r 2 63.3% Page 16 June 2026 Interim Support for UUT Measure to Maintain Essential City Services 0%20%40%60%80%100% Interim Ballot Initial Ballot 21.0% 17.8% 36.4% 26.6% 18.2% 16.2% 19.9% 29.0% 4.5% 10.5% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA 44.4% 57.4% Shall the measure to maintain essential city services such as: • public safety, • streets, • parks and open spaces, • community programs, and • other general city services, by replacing Cupertino’s expiring 2.4% tax with a 3.4% tax on electricity, gas, and telecommunications, and adding video services, until ended by voters, providing $6,900,000 annually, maintaining senior citizens' exemptions, requiring annual audits and public spending disclosure, be adopted? Page 17 June 2026 Critical Statements Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0. 0 1 2 A. With residents and businesses struggling with the high gas prices, increasing cost of living, inflation, tariffs, increasing grocery prices, and high mortgages, now is not the time for another tax increase B. The measure was passed to fund Blackberry Farm, but it has been paid for. Why are they still continuing this tax? C. The measure is a forever tax that will never end G. The measure could increase the average homeowner's utility bills F. The City imposed a utility tax in 2009 and we were promised it would sunset. This year there will be a regional transportation tax proposal on the ballot. Now Cupertino wants another tax on top of that. 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.03 No Effect Somewhat More Likely Much More Likely Ti e r 1 63.5% 61.5% ■ Entire Sample ■ Sample A ■ Sample B Page 18 June 2026 Final Support for UUT Measure to Maintain Essential City Services 0%20%40%60%80%100% Final Ballot Interim Ballot Initial Ballot 16.4% 21.0% 17.8% 30.3% 36.4% 26.6% 22.4% 18.2% 16.2% 21.6% 19.9% 29.0% 9.4% 4.5% 10.5% Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA 44.4% 57.4% Shall the measure to maintain essential city services such as: • public safety, • streets, • parks and open spaces, • community programs, and • other general city services, by replacing Cupertino’s expiring 2.4% tax with a 3.4% tax on electricity, gas, and telecommunications, and adding video services, until ended by voters, providing $6,900,000 annually, maintaining senior citizens' exemptions, requiring annual audits and public spending disclosure, be adopted? 46.6% Page 19 June 2026 Alternative UUT Measure: Increase the Rate by 0.6 Percent Instead of increasing the Cupertino utility tax by one percent, to maintain essential city services such as: public safety, streets, parks and open spaces, community programs, and other general city services, another alternative would be to increase the rate by 0.6 percent until ended by voters. Probably No 18.7% DK/NA 5.2% Definitely No 20.0% Definitely Yes 22.4% Probably Yes 33.7% Total Support 56.1% Page 20 June 2026 Alternative UUT Measure: Renew the Tax at the Current Rate (2.4%) Another alternative would be to renew the tax at the current rate without any tax increase until ended by voters in order to maintain essential city services such as: public safety, streets, parks and open spaces, community programs, and other general city services. Probably No 15.3% DK/NA 2.9% Definitely No 15.4% Definitely Yes 33.8% Probably Yes 32.6% Total Support 66.4% Page 21 June 2026 Alternative UUT Measure: Renew the Tax at the Current Rate (2.4%) for 16 Years Another alternative would be to renew the tax at the current rate without any tax increase for 16 years in order to maintain essential city services such as: public safety, streets, parks and open spaces, community programs, and other general city services. Probably No 16.8% DK/NA 4.7% Definitely No 16.5% Definitely Yes 37.1% Probably Yes 24.8% Total Support 61.9% Page 22 June 2026 Opinion on Future Economy 0%20%40%60%80%100% Likely November 2026 Voters 12.8%30.0%48.6%8.6% Better About the same Worse DK/NA Page 23 June 2026 Key Take-Aways The City of Cupertino commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of likely November 2026 voters. The key take-aways are: A General Plan Amendment ballot measure to require future rezoning of parks or open space be placed on a future ballot was favored by 69.5% of voters. A ballot measure renewing the utility users tax at the existing rate, without increasing the tax rate, adding video services and extending the term to “until ended by voters” was favored by 66.4% voters. Neither a UUT increase of 1 percent or an increase of 0.6 percent were viable at this time. Page 24 June 2026 www.godberesearch.com California and Corporate Offices 1220 Howard Avenue, Suite 250 Burlingame, CA 94010 Nevada Office 59 Damonte Ranch Parkway, Suite B309 Reno, NV 89521