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Written CommunicationsFrom:Andre Duurvoort To:Gwyn Azar Cc:Gilee Corral Subject:RE: Questions about Climate Action Plan updates regarding GHG reduction Date:Wednesday, September 9, 2020 8:23:29 AM Attachments:image001.png image002.png image003.png image004.png image005.png image006.png image007.png image008.png Dear Gwyn and colleagues, Thank you for your comments and interest in our GHG reduction goals. The City Council approved a request by the Sustainability Division to update our Climate Action Plan (CAP) this fiscal year. The CAP update is a project in the FY 2020-21 City Work Program and the Sustainability Commission will be working on this project. Because the CAP Update is an official part of the Sustainability Commission’s adopted Work Program, the GHG reduction goals and other aspects of the CAP update will be discussed in Sustainability Commission public meetings over the coming months. These Commission discussions must be held in public to avoid potential violations of the Brown Act. The next Sustainability Commission meeting will be held virtually on October 15th at 4:00 p.m. The agenda for this meeting and link to join will be published here within 72 hours of the meeting. We encourage you to attend this and future Commission meetings and make your voice heard. Please feel free to reach out to me with any follow up questions. BCC: Sustainability Commission Andre Duurvoort Sustainability Manager City Manager's Office AndreD@Cupertino.org (408) 777-3362 From: Gwyn Azar <> Sent: Saturday, September 5, 2020 6:54 PM To: City of Cupertino Sustainability Commission <SustainabilityCommission@cupertino.org> Subject: Questions about Climate Action Plan updates regarding GHG reduction CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. Do not click links or open attachments unless you recognize the sender and know the content is safe. Hello, We are members of the Cupertino Youth Climate Action Team’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Team. We are deeply concerned about the weakness of Cupertino’s current GHG reduction goals, especially in comparison to our neighboring cities such as Menlo Park and Palo Alto. We were wondering if the Sustainability Commission has any updates about whether or not a more aggressive policy is in the works considering the upcoming Climate Action Plan. We will be in contact regarding future GHG-related initiatives, and we hope to maintain an open line of communication between our team and the Committee. We look forward to working with you! Best, Gwyn, Leon, and Jocelyn From:Gary Latshaw To:City Clerk Subject:Fwd: Material for Climate Action Plans Date:Wednesday, October 7, 2020 9:35:51 AM Attachments:San Carlos CAP assessment form sierra club.pdf 2030 menlo park CAP Adopted July 2020 FINAL.pdf City Clerk - It was recommended to me to have these files as part of written communications for our upcoming Sustainability meeting on October 15th. Please do so. Gary Begin forwarded message: From: Gary Latshaw <glatshaw@cupertino.org> Subject: Material for Climate Action Plans Date: September 24, 2020 at 9:50:08 AM PDT To: Gilee Corral <GileeC@cupertino.org> Gilee - Please pass these on to my fellow commissioners and appropriate staff. I have attached the Menlo Park CAP because it is very aggressive. The San Carlos file is actually a letter sent by the sierra club. I think the check list on the second page would be of value to Cupertino. Both these cities are facing a very direct threat from the rising sea levels. Of course, that is not an issue for Cupertino, but I think we have an obligation to do everything we can to curb GHG emissions. Thanks, Gary sierraclub.org/loma-prieta ~ 3921 East Bayshore Road, Suite 204, Palo Alto, CA 94303 San Mateo, Santa Clara and San Benito Counties August 18, 2020 City of San Carlos 600 Elm Street San Carlos, CA 94070 Via email to: Adam Lokar, Management Analyst RE: San Carlos Climate Action Plan We live in a climate crisis which threatens the survival of organized human life on Earth. Meanwhile, the federal government is weakening environmental regulations and accelerating the construction of fossil fuel projects. However, strong climate policies from Bay Area cities are already i nfluencing state level policy. Time is running out, and our best opportunity for climate action is for cities to lead the way with strong local policies. According to a 2018 study by San Mateo County,1 San Carlos is projected to lose property valued at $885 million due to inundation by the Bay from just 3 feet of sea level rise, a level that scientists believe we may see as early as 2070.2 That translates into 14% of San Carlos’ land area and 11% of the total assessed value of the City’s real estate. The only certain way to mitigate climate change and delay and minimize sea level rise is to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). To this end, we recommend that San Carlos set GHG reduction goals well beyond the current state targets and focus its Climate Action Plan (CAP) on feasible mitigation policies that are, as advised by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “rapid, far- reaching and unprecedented.” In addition, San Carlos must strengthen itself against climate impa cts3 by preparing a Vulnerability and Adaptation Plan for sea level rise, extreme heat and wildfires. In order to support your development of a strong CAP, we invite you to complete the attached Climate Action Plan Assessment Form, which lists the elements of a CAP that we consider most critical. We recommend that San Carlos streamline its CAP to focus on the measures that will achieve the largest 1 County of San Mateo Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment, March 2018, p. 154, https://seachangesmc.org/wp- content/uploads/2018/03/2018-03-12_SLR_VA_Report_2.2018_WEB_FINAL.pdf 2 Rising Seas in California, An Update on Sea Level Rise Science, April 2017, p. 31, http://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/docs/rising-seas-in-california-an-update-on-sea-level-rise-science.pdf 3 An example action plan: https://www.opc.ca.gov/webmaster/ftp/pdf/2020-2025-strategic-plan/OPC-2020-2025-Strategic- Plan-FINAL-20200228.pdf sierraclub.org/loma-prieta ~ 3921 East Bayshore Road, Suite 204, Palo Alto, CA 94303 reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and also consider adopting an abbreviated format,4 so that the document is more accessible to all readers, including decision makers and members of the public. We strongly encourage you to create a clear plan for tracking the actions in your CAP, measuring progress publicly at least quarterly. We appreciate the opportunity to present San Carlos with recommendations for climate action and are available for any further clarification. We look forward to working with San Carlos to create the strongest Climate Action Plan possible. Respectfully Submitted, Gladwyn d’Souza, Co-Chair, Conservation Committee, Loma Prieta Chapter, Sierra Club Gita Dev, Co-Chair, Sustainable Land Use Committee, Loma Prieta Chapter, Sierra Club Kristel Wickham, Climate Action Leadership Team, Loma Prieta Chapter, Sierra Club Cc James Eggers, Executive Director, Loma Prieta Chapter, Sierra Club 4 For an example of an abbreviated Climate Action Plan, see City of Menlo Park 2030 Climate Action Plan, July 2020, https://menlopark.org/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/11486 sierraclub.org/loma-prieta ~ 3921 East Bayshore Road, Suite 204, Palo Alto, CA 94303 Climate Action Plan Assessment Form Please complete the form below for your City’s proposed Climate Action Plan and send it to the Sierra Club Loma Prieta Chapter’s Climate Action Leadership Team at dashiell.leeds@sierraclub.org. Action # Description Included in CAP? Comments 1 Adopt a bold goal to reduce community-wide GHGs by at least [80%] by 2030, given that scientific findings now show California’s goal of a 40% reduction is no longer sufficient to address the severity of the crisis.5 ☐ 2 Specify all resources required to implement each action in the plan, including dollar amounts, staff hours and task owners. ☐ 3 Identify approximately 10 easy-to-track metrics to help Council members and the public gauge success of the plan and define a reporting frequency for those metrics. ☐ 4 New buildings: plan to immediately stop the expansion of natural gas infrastructure, which can be accomplished by enacting a strong “San Mateo County-style” All Electric Reach Code requiring all new buildings to be 100% electric. ☐ 5 Existing buildings: create a plan to reduce 80% of GHG emissions from existing buildings by 2030, which can be accomplished with a “Burnout Ordinance” paired with rebates that together aim to phase out the burning of natural gas in existing buildings, as was recently proposed in Menlo Park’s CAP.6 ☐ 6 Create a plan for reducing vehicle miles traveled by 25%, which can be accomplished by a) rezoning to encourage higher density near transit and b) creating a Green Streets network7 that makes the City easier and safer to navigate without a car.8 ☐ 7 Create a plan for increasing access to electric vehicle (EV) charging, especially for those living in multi-family housing and where charging can be done during the day, when clean solar energy is abundant on California’s electric grid. ☐ 8 Create a plan to replace 100% of the City’s municipal assets that currently use fossil fuels with efficient electric alternatives, including but not limited to: Gas pool heating equipment, gas and diesel municipal fleet vehicles, gas furnaces, gas water heaters and gas-powered landscaping equipment. ☐ 9 Create a climate adaptation plan focused on protecting areas of the community vulnerable to wildfires, extreme heat events, flooding and sea level rise, as forecasted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and County agencies. ☐ 10 Create a citizen’s advisory commission to support the development and implementation of a CAP, and then to monitor staff progress on the CAP. ☐ 5 Palo Alto has adopted a goal of 80% GHG reduction by 2030 and Menlo Park has adopted a goal of 90% GHG reduction by 2030. 6 City of Menlo Park 2030 Climate Action Plan, July 2020, https://www.menlopark.org/ArchiveCenter/ViewFile/Item/11486 7 Sierra Club Guidelines for a Green Streets Network: https://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/sce- authors/u4142/Sierra%20Club%20Loma%20Prieta%20Open%20Streets%205-1-20.pdf 8 For an example of a City that has implemented Green Streets, see Oakland’s Slow Streets Program, https://www.oaklandca.gov/projects/oakland-slow-streets 2030 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN Prepared by the Environmental Quality Commission Adopted by City Council July 2020 (Resolution No.6575) A 2030 PLAN TO ELIMINATE CARBON EMISSIONS & PROTECT OUR COMMUNITY FROM CLIMATE CHANGE JUNE 2020 1 Contacts Rebecca Lucky, Sustainability Manager, City of Menlo Park rllucky@menlopark.org Tom Kabat, Environmental Quality Commissioner, City of Menlo Park tomgkabat@gmail.com James Payne, Environmental Quality Commissioner, City of Menlo Park jamespayne1987@gmail.com Josie Gaillard, Environmental Quality Commissioner, City of Menlo Park josie_gaillard@icloud.com 2 INTRODUCTION Menlo Park is uniquely threatened by climate change and uniquely positioned to tackle it. Menlo Park’s location on the shore of San Francisco Bay places approximately $1.3 billion1 of property in our Belle Haven neighborhood at risk of flooding from climate change by as early as 2070.2 While it is impossible for Menlo Park alone to halt the global sea level rise that threatens our city, bold climate leadership on our part is perhaps our only hope of keeping sea level below the height of an “affordable” sea wall. The San Francisquito Creek Joint Powers Authority estimated in a 2016 feasibility study that a combination of levees and sea walls built along the shoreline of Menlo Park and East Palo Alto to address just three feet of sea level rise would cost approximately $100 million.3 If we do not provide visible and inspiring leadership on climate and global greenhouse gas emissions continue rising at their current rate, no sea wall or levee will save the portion of our city between Route 101 and the Bay. That land, which includes a disproportionate percentage of our city’s low income residents and residents of color, will be inundated and residents and businesses will have to permanently relocate. On the other hand, if we take a leadership position and our bold climate action inspires rapid and far reaching climate action by other cities, we may be able to save our Belle Haven neighborhood with a combination of sea walls and levees. The good news is that if there is any city well positioned to lead on climate action, it is Menlo Park. Located in Silicon Valley, our residents and leaders embrace innovation. Our county (San Mateo) is one of the wealthiest in the country,4 1 According to County of San Mateo Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment p. 139, sea level rise of 3.3 feet will inundate Menlo Park real estate valued at $1.288 billion and a rise of 6.6 feet will inundate $1.621 billion in real estate. 2 Griggs, G, Árvai, J, Cayan, D, DeConto, R, Fox, J, Fricker, HA, Kopp, RE, Tebaldi, C, Whiteman, EA (California Ocean Protection Council Science Advisory Team Working Group), Rising Seas in California: An Update on Sea-Level Rise Science, California Ocean Science Trust, April 2017. Ranges shown are from the median (50th percentile) to the extreme (99.9th percentile) range of the projections. Source: http://data.pointblue.org/apps/ocof/cms/index.php?page=flood-map YEAR: 2070-2100 the Bay is projected to rise 3.3 feet which means we have the financial resources to tackle the issue of climate change head on. Analysis conducted by members of the Environmental Quality Commission’s Climate Action Plan subcommittee shows that every dollar spent now by the City on bold climate action can be expected to save City residents $100 in future adaptation costs5 addressing sea level rise alone, not to mention the healthcare costs associated with treating ailments caused by air pollution (see “Natural Gas Phase Out” section below). Finally, our City Council and staff have already demonstrated a capacity for leadership by passing an innovative all-electric Reach Code that virtually eliminates natural gas from new buildings. At last count, 15 other California cities had adopted a “Menlo Park style” all electric Reach Code for new buildings, proving that courageous action on climate does in fact inspire others to follow. 3 Public Draft Feasibility Report, SAFER Bay Project, Strategy to Advance Flood protection, Ecosystems and Recreation along San Francisco Bay, East Palo Alto and Menlo Park, October 2016, p. 37. 4 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest- income_counties_in_the_United_States 5 Supporting analysis available in PDF format in Appendix C and in Excel format upon request 3 ZERO CARBON BY 2030 In order to address the significant thr eat to Menlo Park posed by climate change, the City Council adopted a bold climate goal of zero carbon by 2030. This will be achieved through a 90% reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO2e) from 2005 levels, and elimination of the remaining 10% of CO2e through direct carbon removal measures. An inventory of greenhouse gas emissions conducted in December 2019 revealed that emissions in Menlo Park fell from 349,284 tons in 2005 to 284,378 tons of CO2e in 2017, a reduction of 19%. The aim of this plan will be to reduce community-wide emissions by another 71% for a total reduction of 90% from 2005 emissions, leaving just 34,933 tons of CO2e per year by 2030. 2005 2017 2030 34,933 tons CO2e Menlo Park Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions (metric tons of CO2e) 2005 2017 2030 Vehicles 137,628 158,686 18,373 Natural gas 102,295 95,742 13,656 Electricity 87,617 21,528 - Waste 21,745 8,424 2,903 Total Emissions 349,285 284,380 34,933 Waste 8% Natur al gas 39% Vehicl es 53% Waste Electricity 3% 7% Natural gas 34% 284,378 tons CO2e Vehicles 56% Waste 6% Electricity 25% Vehicles 40% 349,284 tons CO2e Natural gas 29% 4 OPTIONS FOR ACTION In order to achieve a goal of “Zero emissions by 2030,” Menlo Park must begin taking bold action immediately. Fortunately, the City has already decarbonized its electricity supply by joining with other cities in the County to create a joint powers authority (Peninsula Clean Energy) that sources power mainly from renewables and hydropower. This creates a clean energy stepping stone from which to decarbonize the rest of the City’s economy. Our next step is to decarbonize all of our buildings and transportation. In an ideal world with more time, the City’s climate goals could be achieved simply by unleashing the power of free enterprise and relying on markets and educated consumers to transform our fossil-fuel dependent economy to one that stops emitting greenhouse gases in time to avert catastrophic climate change. Members of the Climate Action Plan (CAP) subcommittee of the Environmental Quality Commission (EQC), who prepared this plan, certainly would prefer this type of approach, as it limits the role of government and would reduce the likely opposition from some interest groups. However, no matter how carefully the subcommittee considered various incentive- and education-based laissez-faire approaches, none of them appears able to solve the climate problem in time to avert catastrophic change to our daily lives. In fact, the less action the City takes now, the costlier the government intervention will be later to deal with the resulting climate disasters. The key reasons that market approaches alone cannot solve climate change are three-fold: 1)markets are currently distorted by the absence of accurate pricing for key externalities, such as the right to dump harmful greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, which today is virtually free to any person or business who wishes to do it, leaving the rest of us bear the ever increasing cost, 2)powerful political interest groups such as the fossil fuel industry have successfully spread enough disinformation about climate change that Americans significantly underestimate the problem and therefore underestimate the actions that must be taken to address it, and 3)polluting devices last far too long once installed and we simply do not have enough time for the typical market signals to trickle down to those who determine product offerings and today offer environmentally obsolete products to customers. Just as the US government stepped in forcefully after the bombing of Pearl Harbor to require that much of America’s free market economy be transformed to support the war effort, so too must the government now step in forcefully and confidently to lead the American public away from the brink of climate disaster. Thankfully, the actions required of every American citizen to forcefully combat climate change are much less onerous than the food rations or military conscription imposed on World War II-era Americans. We are fortunate that a robust private sector has already provided every technological solution and innovation necessary to almost completely retire fossil fuels as an energy source in America today. PERSONAL ACTION Below is a list of the personal actions that, if every citizen took them, would halt global warming in its tracks: •Retire all gas vehicles immediately and replace them with electric vehicles, bikes, transit or another form of non-fossil transport •Replace every gas appliance in a home (including furnace, water heater and stove) with an efficient electric version •Power every home and car with 100% renewable electricity, either by installing solar panels or purchasing renewable energy from one’s utility •Consider the greenhouse gas emissions associated with every purchase decision and choose “low-carbon” products and services whenever possible 5 •Reduce weekly consumption of meat and animal products, a move which has significant ancillary health benefits. GOVERNMENT ACTION At the local government level, climate action must focus on eliminating the use of two categories of fossil fuels: 1) gasoline and diesel fuel in vehicles, and 2) natural gas in home appliances. Given the 25-year expected life of a typical gas furnace, it is critical for the City to begin prohibiting the installation of new replacement gas furnaces and water heaters as soon as possible. In considering the wide-reaching actions and change required to meet the City’s proposed climate goals, researchers reviewed dozens of approaches employed by cities all over the world, including: ▪A “5-minute city” approach to zoning implemented in Copenhagen, Denmar k that drastically reduced vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and made the city more walkable ▪A carbon fee on buildings recently implemented in New York City ▪An announced plan to end the flow of natural gas in the City of Arcata, California and now being considered by Palo Alto. After months of weighing each of the dozens of approaches, the CAP subcommittee identified three basic options for action: 1) a Bold Plan with 22 actions to be implemented over one year, 2) a Moderate Plan with 76 actions to be im plemented over three years and 3) a Go Slow Plan with no specific actions other than to follow evolving state rules. PLAN CHANGES DUE TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC Shortly after the CAP subcommittee fleshed out the three different approaches to climate action described above, the world was gripped by the global pandemic of COVID -19. The pandemic has significantly affected the context in which this plan is presented, namely: •The time and attention of City Council and staff has understandably shifted almost entirely to managing the health risks and economic consequences of the pandemic •Almost overnight, the country has gone from enjoying robust economic growth to experiencing one of the starkest economic recessions in US history •Due to the economic recession, the City’s budget has shrunk dramatically, with a 2020-21 shortfall of $12.7 million •Layoffs of dozens of City staff as a result of the City’s budget shortfall •City commissions, including the Environmental Quality Commission (EQC), unable to meet for 4 months, which means the CAP subcommittee has been delayed in vetting the CAP with the EQC Despite disrupted City operations, the CAP subcommittee continued refining the Climate Action Plan and vetting it with the City Council’s CAP subcommittee (distinct from the EQC’s CAP subcommittee) to receive their input on what might be politically viable in Menlo Park. The result of that continued work is a significantly pared down plan, presented below. While the CAP subcommittee still believes that the original Bold or Moderate Plans (presented in Appendix B), with their 22 and 76 actions respectively, are in fact what the Climate Crisis requires, we have decided to propose a significantly pared down plan, with the thought that some action is better than no action. This plan includes only the highest impact actions. This does not mean it is the best plan. It means it is only a good subset of the best plan and future efforts should be made to expand it as our ability and the wisdom of doing so becomes ever more apparent. 6 THE PLAN Action # Description 2030 GHG Reduction (tons/yr) Estimated Initial Investment for FY 2020-2021 Explore policy/program options to convert 95% of existing buildings to all-electric by 2030 1 Two basic options: 1)Announce the “end of flow” of natural gas in the City by 2030 OR 2)Enact a “burn-out ordinance” requiring that when gas appliances expire, they must replaced by electric (preferably high efficiency heat pump) alternatives; phase in for large commercial, small commercial, residential; may require follow-on compliance ordinance as current permit compliance for residential gas appliances is low; will require follow-up “cash-for- clunkers” program to achieve 2030 goal; relies on PCE subsidies to reduce or eliminate cost differential; may require use of UUT funds to cover additional cost differential for low-income residents. Extend burnout ordinance to expiring air conditioners, to be replaced with heat pumps, eliminating need for separate gas heating. 1)86,465* OR 2)51,636* $195,000 to $275,000 *Initial investment to hire contract staff (building official, legal aid, energy analyst) and provide policy options that would lead to adoption of a policy, ordinance, and/or program 2 Announce and promote goals of 1) making all new vehicles be <7,120* $0-$20,000 to electric by 2025 and 2) reducing gasoline sales each year by influence regional 10%, based on the total reported in 2018. Track progress on agency to lead on both goals publicly on an annual basis. behalf of the city Set citywide goal for increasing EVs and decreasing gasoline sales Expand access to EV 3 Install or assist building owners in installing EV chargers 7,370* $140,000 charging for throughout the City, siting them preferably where they will be <13,000* for *Initial investment multifamily and used during daylight hours (when solar electricity is abundant on multifamily for contract analyst commercial properties our grid) and also where residents of multi-family housing can to evaluate access them. Current project to explore and evaluate policy multifamily options for existing multifamily properties. properties Reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by 25% or an amount recommended by the Complete Streets Commission 4 Reduce VMT, especially by gasoline vehicles, through a two- pronged approach: 1)Change zoning to encourage higher density (esp. for housing) near transit 2)Make the City easier to navigate without a car by accelerating implementation of the Transportation Master Plan with an emphasis on developing a clear network of protected pedestrian/bike paths throughout town 31,743* Explore in 2021 or 2022 after current and complimentary projects are completed Current projects underway that help achieve this goal: SB2 Housing grant, Transportation Management Plan, Transportation Management Association, and implementation of new VMT guidelines for new development Eliminate the use of 5 Replace 100% of the following municipal assets with efficient electric substitutes for: 1)Gas pool heating equipment 2)Gas and diesel municipal fleet vehicles 3)Gas furnaces 4)Gas hot water heaters 5)Gas-powered gardening equipment 879* Currently budgeted fossil fuels from for end of life assets/ municipal operations appliances, and new community center/library Develop a climate 6 Develop a climate adaptation plan focused on protecting areas of 0 Flood and Sea Level adaptation plan to the community vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding, as Rise Resiliency protect the community forecasted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric District to Lead from sea level rise and Administration (NOAA) and California State agencies. Consider flooding requiring developers to fund efforts to protect the community. TOTAL (assumes option 2 is chosen in action #1) 98,748+ $355,000 - $435,000 *GHG emission reductions have been estimated and have not been verified 7 You will notice that the plan, as presented, falls well short of the goal of reducing our greenhouse gas emissions by 249,447 tons/yr by 2030. In fact, the plan only addresses 40% of the sought-after reductions. This simplified 6-action plan is significantly scaled back from the more comprehensive plans envisioned before COVID -19 struck, a compromise the CAP subcommittee felt was warranted, given the City’s projected budget short-falls. The CAP subcommittee hopes that market momentum in the EV sector will make a significant contribution to the reduction of Menlo Park’s greenhouse gas emissions, an effect not accounted for here. The Environmental Quality Commission expects the significantly truncated six-action plan presented above to be completed within one year and strongly advises City Council to revisit the original, more comprehensive plan in July 2021, so that as the economy improves, those actions can be reincorporated into the plan. NATURAL GAS PHASE OUT Ending the use of natural gas has multiple bene fits, including the avoidance of failures in gas system operations, such as the one that destroyed homes and caused death in Brookline, Massachusetts in 2018 and the one that did even greater harm in San Bruno, California in 2010. The normal operation of gas appliances in buildings has also been found to cause indoor air pollution that would be illegal outdoors due to its negative health impacts, according to a recent study from UCLA.6 That study links chronic exposure to the NO2 emitted from gas stoves to a range of health ailments, including: asthma, lung inflammation, increased risk of respiratory infection, lung and breast cancer and low birth weight in babies. Doctors in a January article in the New England Journal of Medicine wrote the following, “As physicians deeply concerned about climate change and pollution and their consequences, we consider expansion of the natural gas infrastructure to be a grave hazard to human health.” They continued, “We also recommend that new residential or commercial gas hookups not be permitted, new gas 6 UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, “Effects of Residential Gas Appliances on Indoor and Outdoor Air Quality and Public Health in California,” April 2020, https://coeh.ph.ucla.edu/effects-residential-gas-appliances- indoor-and-outdoor-air-quality-and-public-health-california appliances be removed from the market, further gas exploration on federal lands be banned, and all new or planned construction of gas infrastructure be halted.”7 It is therefore within the City’s normal powers, which are aimed at protecting the health and safety of its citizens, to seriously consider announcing the “End of Flow” (EOF) of natural gas. This is similar to an approach proposed in the City of Arcata, California whereby the City would explore and pass an ordinance that sets an end date, for example 7/4/2030, for the flow of natural gas to all gas customers within the City limits. This sets a date certain by which community members would want to make any needed electrification updates to their homes for water heating, cooking and space heating. The City could then either stand back and let community members educate themselves on choices that would work for them, or the City could be an active partner to interested citizens, perhaps leading a helpful bulk buying program for: water heaters, heat pu mp HVAC units, EV chargers and installation services, or performing other joint effort transformation activities. There is already a local model for city -led bulk buying called Sunshares, which performs bulk buying for home solar systems and electric vehicles. While the idea of city-led bulk buying may sound new and different at first, we should realize that the City of Menlo Park already performs bulk buying of commodities and services for its citizens and businesses, including water supply, public safety services, street tree maintenance, roads and sidewalks, etc. SOURCES OF FUNDS Some of the six proposed actions can most likely be implemented by existing staff with extra support from a contractor/consultants. Other than the General Fund, there are two o ther potential sources of funds: 1) the $400,000 presented in the 2020-21 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) as earmarked for implementation of the Climate Action Plan and 7 New England Journal of Medicine, “The False Promise of Natural Gas,” Philip J. Landrigan, M.D., Howard Frumkin, M.D., Dr.P.H., and Brita E. Lundberg, M.D., https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1913663 8 2)issuing debt or borrowing money.8 Saving our community for future generations seems like one of the most prudent uses of borrowed funds one can imagine. Conversely, if we wait until extra City revenue is available to fund climate action, we will most certainly lose the climate fight. There will be additional capital expenditures incurred as part of the Climate Action Plan, as well, including: -Investment in EV charging infrastructure -Street improvements related to the TMP implementation -Investment in electric replacements for municipal gas and diesel assets If funds for these capital expenditures have not already been allocated in the City’s Capital Improvement Plan (CIP), an amendment would need to be made to the CIP for that purpose. The EQC’s CAP subcommittee recommends against using funds currently earmarked in the CIP for climate action to pay for municipal greening projects. Such projects are good candidates for outside financing or borrowing, whereas the CAP funds in the CIP should be focused on high impact activities to reduce community-wide greenhouse gas reductions, such as policy development, programs, incentives, education and marketing. PLAN METRICS Climate Action Plans have a poor history of being effectively implemented and one reason for that is that progress is typically only measured every five years and with staff turnover, well intentioned plans can go unexamined for years. In order to avoid such an outcome, the CAP subcommittee recommends that a short list of concrete metrics be adopted and that the City Council request quarterly, if not monthly, updates on those metrics. Key metrics to track include: 1.Number of gas hot water heaters citywide that are replaced with electric versions (data source: Menlo Park Building Department) 2.Number of gas furnaces citywide that are replaced with electric versions (data source: Menlo Park Building Department) 3.Number of utility natural gas accounts terminated (data source: Peninsula Clean Energy or PG&E) 4.Number of new cars registered that are gas vs. EV (data source: DMV) 5.Number of total cars registered that are gas vs. EV (data source: DMV) 6.Gallons of gasoline sold in Menlo Park (data source: City sales tax reports) 7.Percentage of municipal assets converted from gas or diesel to electric (data source: Menlo Park Public Works Department) 8.Vehicle miles traveled, including trips inbound, outbound and within the City (Google Environmental Insights Explorer) 9.Number of other cities that query and/or copy Menlo Park’s climate policies and programs (data source: outreach efforts and research by Menlo Park Sustainability staff) While Sustainability staff and members of the CAP subcommittee question the value of conducting frequent high level greenhouse gas inventories, we do all agree that measurement is important and believe that tracking the specific items listed above will help staff and Council gain insight into the effectiveness of the climate actions that the City decides to undertake. County efforts to measure greenhouse gas emissions are expected to continue and will hopefully reflect progress made by cities within the County. METHOD FOR EVALUATING ACTIONS The six actions detailed above were selected from over 76 actions included in the original Bold and Moderate Plans, because they offer the City the most potential for Greenhouse Gas Reductions per dollar spent. Dozens of potential climate actions were considered. Actions took many forms, including: city ordinances, city directives, programs and collaborations. Each action was evaluated for the 8 An interesting model for borrowing against existing financial assets (such as the City’s reserves) has been employed during the COVID recession by leading charitable Foundations who are borrowing at low interest rates against their endowments in order to continue disbursements, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/business/ford- foundation-bonds-coronavirus.html. 9 following key criteria: • Potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • City staff resources required to implement • City cost to implement • Out-of-pocket expenses for community members to implement (lifecycle economics for user) • Political feasibility • Potential for replication by other cities The cost estimates above should be viewed as preliminary, requiring further thorough analysis by City staff prior to policy adoption. THE TRUE COST OF CARBON As mentioned above, there is in fact a societal cost to burning fossil fuels, sometimes referred to as the “cost of carbon.” There are debates today over how best to calculate that cost. Some say it should be based on the damages caused by those emissions. Others say it should be based on the cost to remove those carbon emissions from the atmosphere, once that becomes possible. In the absence of a global consensus, the EQC’s CAP subcommittee attempted to estimate the cost of carbon to Menlo Park by taking the projected losses from sea level rise in our city alone, $1.3 billion, and dividing that by the tons of CO2e we expect to emit over the next 40 years in a business as usual situation. Using this simple methodology, we arrived at a “cost of carbon” of $130/ton for Menlo Park. There are a number of ways the City could use this figure. We could consider levying a tax of $130/ton on fossil fuels, in order to cover future damages the City will incur, in essence internalizing the externalized “cost of carbon.” Another way to use this figure would be for the City to factor it in to all decisions concerning assets in the City that consume fossil fuels, for example in calculating the true cost to the City of a gasoline-powered police car or the true cost to citizens of a gas furnace. NOTE ON LEADERSHIP Saving our City from sea level rise will require collective global action, which Menlo Park can likely only influence through bold leadership. In evaluating the relative effectiveness of various climate actions, the CAP subcommittee noted the significant impact that replicability and demonstration of feasibility of a pol icy or program had on its potential to generate emissions reductions. If other cities can easily copy a policy or program, it is likely to catalyze emissions reductions many times greater than our City’s emissions reductions alone. Therefore, it is strongly advised that City staff favor simplicity and replicability in its design of climate policies and programs and it is further advised that the City invest resources in proactively sharing its climate policies and programs with other cities, counties and government entities. We must also be nimble and ready to act on economic stimulus opportunities that may present themselves, as the Country attempts to pull itself out of a recession. NOTE ON UTILITY PARTNERS An analysis of community member economics for each action revealed that rebates can make or break the economics behind purchasing decisions for equipment like electric vehicles and electric heat pumps for space and water heating, all of which are essential for progress on climate action. The City can greatly increase the political feasibility of many climate actions included in this plan by calling on its local Community Choice Energy (CCE) provider to rapidly deploy the significant capital currently held on its balance sheet to fund rebates on electric replacements of gas appliances. Such rebates can make climate friendly replacements cost effective and that enables city councils like ours to pass ordinances requiring such replacements. In turn, the new electric devices generate net revenue that rebuilds the CCE’s financial reserves. To this end, Peninsula Clean Energy’s board recently signaled its support for local cities’ efforts to electrify, voting on May 28, 2020 to invest $6 million to electrify existing buildings in San Mateo County. This program will reportedly include substantial incentives for: 1) the installation of electric heat pump water heaters, 2) upgrades to electric service panels so they can handle the increased electric demands of all-electric homes, and 3) whole-home electric conversions for low income residents. Such programs are a promising 10 signal that local CCEs intend to help ease the financial burden of converting homes from natural gas to all-electric, since it is not only essential for fighting climate change but also in their long-term financial interest to do so. NOTE ON EQUITY Climate change does not affect all members of society equally. Tragically it disproportionately affects low income people and people of color, as evidenced right here in Menlo Park, where sea level rise is expected to have a devastating impact on residents of our Belle Haven neighborhood. A similar pattern is observed all over the globe, where poor island nations are becoming the first to be wiped off the globe. Climate justice advocate Hop Hopkins illustrates the connection between climate change and racism by explaining how allowing climate change to occur requires that we accept that portions of our local and global communities are “sacrifice zones, and you can’t have sa crifice zones without disposable people, and you can’t have disposable people without racism.” Meanwhile wealthier segments of society go on emitting greenhouse gases at ten times the rate of poorer segments, unwilling to make even small changes to their purchasing decisions. The COVID crisis has shed a light on the shocking inequity in health outcomes for people of color, some of which can be attributed to well documented racial disparities in exposure to air pollution from fossil fuels. Menlo Park must ask itself whether it wishes to continue contributing to this global and local inequity, or whether it can strongly prioritize leadership in solving these interconnected problems. Finally, although Menlo Park is situated in one of the wealthiest Counties in the country, that wealth is not equally distributed and some residents may find it difficult to afford at least the capital outlay for the changes recommended in this plan. To address issues of equity, there are a number of options for ensuring that low-income residents have the financial support they need to make the required changes to their homes and vehicles. Both the State and local CCEs have shown a willingness to provide financial subsidies specifically targeted at low income residents. Peninsula Clean Energy recently set aside $2 million, out of a $6 million program, just to assist low-income residents with all-electric retrofits of their homes. If the City wishes to further bolster that support, it could consider allowing the Utility User’s Tax (UUT) on natural gas sales to increase from its current 1% level to the existing voter- approved level of 3.5%. That would provide an estimated $500,000 in additional funding every year to low-income families converting gas appliances to all-electric. The City must take an active role in ensuring that low-income residents are not unfairly disadvantaged by the requirements of its Climate Action Plan. ANOTHER NOTE ON COVID-19 Lastly, this Climate Action Plan is being presented to City leaders in the midst of a generation-defining event, namely the global COVID -19 pandemic. It is understandable and appropriate that City leaders would devote their immediate attention to protecting the health and wellbeing of our community, as we fight this deadly virus. As the health emergency wanes, however, the CAP subcommittee hopes that Council members will view the proposed Climate Action Plan as an opportunity for Menlo Park. COVID-19 has jolted us all out of our routines and everyday existence, highlighting in a graphic way our vulnerability as a species. Climate change has the potential to do the same, only on an even greater scale. If we are able to take in the lessons presented to us by this current crisis, we will be better prepared to address the climate crisis that is coming. For example, we should ask ourselves: Do we want to be like South Korea and flatten the carbon “curve” by proactively investing in mitigating the carbon dioxide “contagion”? Or will we delay, like Italy, and only take decisive action once the problem has ballooned? Is it still acceptable to stand by and watch one window of opportunity after another close before our eyes, leaving us with a much larger problem, the only response to which threatens to destroy our economy? Can we accept that this problem, like COVID, will ravage poor communities and people of color? The choice is ours. How will we act? This Climate Action Plan presents us with economic opportunities as well. If enacted, this plan will jumpstart a new local market in electri c appliance installation, injecting money into the 11 economy and providing hundreds of new jobs, just when they are needed. Finally, as medical professionals learn more about the adverse health impacts of burning fossil fuels in our homes, the Climate Action Plan offers Menlo Park an opportunity to set a new standard for health and safety in our homes and places of work by removing fossil fuels from our air completely. Our future is in our hands. It is time to act. 12 APPENDIX A ORIGINAL PLAN OPTIONS – BOLD, MODERATE AND GO SLOW Dr. John Holdren, scientific advisor to President Obama, advised that humans have three basic choices when it comes to climate change: 1) mitigate the problem by reducing our emissions, 2) adapt to the problem and try to move out of harm’s way, or 3) suffer. What every civic leader must do today is pick the mix of those three options that they are willing to bring to their communities. A summary of the benefits and drawback s of each plan, from a City official’s perspective, is offered below. Bold Plan Moderate Plan Go Slow Plan • A few bold actions • One-year implementation • Achieves goal of Zero by 2030 • Less $ now (staff resources) • Less $ later (lower sea walls) • Subject to opposition • Less human suffering • Regional leadership role • Many moderate actions • Three-year implementation • Makes progress toward goal of Zero by 2030 • More $ now (staff resources) • Some $ later (sea walls) • Subject to some opposition • Some human suffering • Regional leadership role • No proactive actions • No specific implementation time • Falls well short of Zero by 2030 goal • Less $ now (staff resources) • More $ later (high sea walls) • Subject to some opposition • More human suffering • No regional leadership role THE MODERATE PLAN The Moderate Plan is a set of 60+ actions (Appendix B), implemented over 3 years, that involve working with the community (residents, businesses and commuters) to assist and compel them to change, while simultaneously working with other cities, the County, the State and utilities to make such change easier. This would be accomplished by changing laws, capabilities and economics in a way that transforms standard practice, similar to the way that our all-electric Reach Codes are transforming standard practice in new construction. Menlo Park is gaining credibility in this area and therefore has a reasonable chance of catalyzing regional change through bold leadership and knowledge sharing. The Moderate Plan would also seek an expanded vision and commitment from Community Choice Energy providers (CCEs), who will reap considerable benefit in the form of increased net revenue from electrification, just as oil companies will see diminishing revenue. According to this plan, the CCEs would be advised to rapidly deploy their net revenue, in order to quickly transform the market to support building electrification. The Moderate Plan is the most time-intensive option of those presented, with significant staff resources deployed in the next three years to pass incremental ordinances that will drive needed behavior change. Sustainability staff currently estimate that implementing the Moderate Plan would require approximately 6 incremental full time equivalent (FTE) staff for the first year and a similar or smaller number in the remaining two years included in the plan. These incremental staff resources could be hired as consultants and would not be needed past the 3 - year term of the plan. While the action-intensive approach of the Moderate Plan may seem cumbersome, the CAP subcommittee suspects that the public requires incremental education and a piecemeal approach to rule changes, in order to have time to adjust to change. As such, the Moderate Plan also includes significant public outreach and education efforts to 13 assist the public and businesses in understanding the benefits of mutual cooperation. Finally, the Moderate Plan by itself would not guarantee that the City would reach its proposed climate goal of Zero emissions by 2030. Instead, this plan would put us on a path to achieve that goal in a later year or, alternatively, could be seen as laying the groundwork for implementation of additional measures, such as those outlined in the Bold Plan, starting in year 4 of climate action when the public may be more receptive to bolder action. THE BOLD PLAN The Bold Plan is much simpler (Appendix B) in that it involves far fewer actions and therefore fewer staff resources to implement. It also has the advantage of nearly guaranteeing achievement of the City’s climate goals. It achieves this primarily by announcing to the community that the City will stop the flow of natural gas (a potent greenhouse gas) and restrict the use of gasoline vehicles within City limits by a certain date in the future, possibly by the year 2030. This approach gives community members time to make the needed adjustments to their homes and transportation, all of which are perfectly feasible, within an announced 10 -year timeframe. As for the elimination of gasoline and diesel (GAD) fuels from Menlo Park vehicles, the Bold Plan could include a normal health-and-safety powers type ordinance, requiring the phasing out of underground fuel tanks by 7/4/2030, for example. Any businesses that used underground fuel storage tanks would need to remove them for certain by that date. If climate preservation is being seriously pursued in the next decade and automobile makers follow their plans for electric vehicle production, there will be much lower need for GAD stations left in our area and those that remain will be selling a fraction of the volume of gasoline that they do now. This could mean that, regardless of which climate plan the City pursues, the number of local gasoline stations is likely to drop significantly within the next decade from the current 12 to as few as six. Some locations could be repurposed as EV charging stations with amenities such as a coffee shop, convenience store or car wash. Another approach to eliminating GAD fuels would be for the City to pass a number of ordinances that reduce the subsidies currently offered to GAD - powered cars and trucks. Some of the subsidies that could be reduced or eliminated for GAD vehicles include City-provided free parking in downtown lots and free parking on the side of public streets, a subsidy the City already limits overnight in Menlo Park. Both of these measures would encourage reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the City, as well as conversions to electric vehicles (EVs). These shifts would also offer residents the ancillary benefits of reduced traffic congestion and/or reduced air pollution. THE GO SLOW PLAN The Go Slow Plan (GSP) would entail stepping back from climate leadership and following other entities, if and when they step forward to lead. The City would forgo the opportunity to carve out its own unique approach to prob lems, as we did with the recent Reach Codes, and would likely end up joining County efforts or copying other Cities’ approaches. A Go Slow Plan would likely entail sitting quietly on the sidelines and following plans developed and offered by regional or state entities, as they emerge. The Go Slow Plan is by far the most risky of the plans in that it results in the highest likely damage cost to public and private property from sea level rise and would cause the most human suffering in vulnerable parts of our City. Gut-wrenching decisions will face City officials as they decide how much money to spend delaying the eventual loss of real estate valued at over $1 billion along our Bay shoreline. One can imagine weighty decisions about what neighborhoods to save resulting in heated disagreement among residents that would tear at the fabric of our community. Although the Go Slow Plan may look “easy” in the short term, due to the lower staffing requirements and the slower pace of change required now, this approach may in fact prove to be penny wise and pound foolish. In reality, a Go Slow approach simply hands a growing problem to a future City Council, who would have even less time and resources at their disposal to battle climate change and oversee adaptation on multiple fronts. We understand from the worldwide scientific body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that time is of the essence and that in order to have a meaningful impact on climate change, 14 any mitigation efforts must start immediately. This would render the Go Slow Plan scientifically imprudent, leaving the City Council to choose between: a) implementing the Moderate Plan immediately and simultaneously exploring the Bold Plan for later implementation if needed, b) cutting to the chase and just pursuing the Bold Plan immediately or c) developing a plan they feel would perform better. Appendix: B Moderate 2020 Action Action # Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non-Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost ($/ton) * 2030 State- wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions A: Municipal Greening Develop and implement plan for electrifying municipal fleet 1 Directive Public Works/ Sustainability 0.05 446 -$7,624 3,000 $980,000 $3,406,667 Develop clear plan for converting 100% of municipal vehicles to EVs Expand city owned, public EV charging infrastructure throughout City 2 Directive Sustainability/ Public Works 0 714 -$53.16 6,000 $400,000 $151,880 CAP sub note: Focus on parking lots at city facilities, inc. parks, library, community center and areas that serve multi-family housing. (1) Analyze EV infraststruce needs of the city and design accordingly (2) Establish rules for use of chargers and best practices for signage and other use factors (3) Jump start infrastructure development with initial public investments (4) Develop partnerships with utilties and private businesses as long term investors when building out the city's EV-charging infrastructure (5) Monitor and adapt to trends in the eV market and with EV technologies, use of city infrastructure, and shifts in national, regional policy Develop and Implement plan for electrifying all municipal buildings + pools 3 Directive Public Works/ Sustainability 0.05 433 -$33.94 39,000 $360,000 $225,305 Install heat pumps and heat pump water heaters in all municipal buildings and the 2 pool complexes For Resiliency purposes only: Develop and implement plan for installing batteries for resiliency in key municipal facilities, starting with new community center 4 Directive Public Works/ Sustainability 0.05 1 $16,781 109 $360,000 -$300,000 Install solar and batteries in municipal facilities for resiliency during emergencies. Adopt CA regulations + Marin concrete language on embodied carbon in municipal construction, e.g. sidewalks 5 Directive Public Works 0 54 $16.67 3,000 $9,000 -$9,000 Review state purchasing guidelines published recently and adopt those as a starting point, create signage for carbon-free sidewalks. Raise Nat Gas UUT to 3.5% (to fund electrification of low income households, municipal electrification program and other Council-directed GHG reductions) 6 Directive Finance/ Sustainability 0.125 579 $2.16 35,000 $5,000 $473 First step is to increase UUT rate on natural gas. City Council then decides where to apply funds : electrification (+ batteries?) in 1) day cares, 2) municipal buildings, 3) schools, 4) low income residents’ homes. Subtotal 0.275 B: Commercial Greening Facilitate daytime EV charging at commercial establishments and allow public access use at night 7 Ordinance Sustainability/ Planning/ Building 0.5 1,428 $3.50 85,700 $90,000 $134,256 Facilitate installation of EV chargers for commercial establishments of a certain size to encourage charging from 9am to 3pm when supply of renewable energy is abundant and cheap; also allow public charging access at night Work with Facebook to develop a bus electrification plan, including shuttle 8 Collaboration 0.05 1,631 $0.61 8,200 $1,400,000 -$110,000 Require electrification of gas appliances (space heating and water heating) and A/C upon burnout to heat pump - commercial 9 Ordinance Sustainability/ Building 0.5 19,469 $0.26 3,115,100 $24,000 $7,650 Require property owner to replace gas HVAC units at end of life with electric heat pump HVAC. Also require that replaced A/C be provided by heat pumps; limit to commercial establishments of a certain size Adopt Marin limits on embodied carbon in construction and require materials that sequester carbon in commercial construction 10 Ordinance Sustainability/ Building 0.5 2,835 $1.76 170,100 $3,600 -$3,600 Subtotal 1.55 City of Menlo Park Moderate 3-yr Climate Action Plan - 2020 * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton, e.g. muni, business or resident 1 Appendix: B Moderate 2020 Action Action # Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non-Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost ($/ton) * 2030 State- wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions City of Menlo Park Moderate 3-yr Climate Action Plan - 2020 C: Residential Greening Require access to EV charging in existing multi- family buidlings 11 Ordinance Sustainability/ Planning/ Building 0.5 5,942 $1.68 178,300 $21,000 $21,048 Ideas: 1) City resources could defray costs for projects at affordable housing developments, 2) Prohibit landlord from raising rent as a result by exempting this change from "significant renovation" definition in rent control laws. Copy Mountain View? Achieve 100% permit compliance for heating and water heating appliances upon property sale 12 Ordinance Sustainability/ Building 0.5 15,449 $0.32 772,500 $500 -$500 This action is needed to make a burnout ordinance enforcable. Build in a 1-year lag to give market time to adjust. Deferred date of implementation: Jan 1, 2021. Explore legislation to require homebuyer notification re: sea level rise in flood areas 13 Collaboration 0.05 - $0.00 - $0 $0 Require residents installing solar to also install conduit and circuits for heat pump water heater and EV charger 14 Ordinance 0 7,784 $0.00 653,900 $300 $2,338 This facilitates conversion to electric for emergency water heater burnouts Update permits and fees to encourage electrification, including battery storage. Recommend to contractors and clients that they electrify all gas burnouts and that they heat pump all AC burnouts. 15 Directive 0 1,712 $0.00 41,100 -$200 $200 Develop recommended device type lists for building department display (and handouts) Subtotal 1.05 D: VMT Reduction Explore options for VMT reduction and set a city goal 16 Ordinance Transportation/ Planning 0.5 5,714 $0.88 228,500 -$20,000 $20,000 Consider adjusting zoning & land use regs to encourage mixed use, dense development near transit to reduce the number of cars and car trips due to commuting; reduce parking minimums for new development; rezone single-family to include multi- family; explore electric shuttle service between Belle Haven and Caltrain; expand network of multi-use paths; explore electric "last mile" options from transit to common destinations Establish a Transportation Management Association (TMA)17 Program 0.5 647 $15.45 9,700 $0 $0 Leverage small and large businesses for transit pass discounts, shuttle shares, discounts, etc. Electrify city shuttle buses to transit, esp. on busy streets 18 Program 0.5 126 $49.67 2,000 $280,000 -$22,000 Possible e-bus vendors: Proterra (US), BYD (China) Bike/Scooter Share Ordinance 19 0.5 286 $35.00 2,900 $0 $0 Consider Copenhagen-style zoning oriented around 5-minute walking city approach 20 Ordinance 0.5 660 $5.05 39,600 $0 $4,557,940 Subtotal 2.5 E: Zero Waste Adopt Foodware Ordinance to reduce/eliminate plastics and single use disposable foodware 21 Ordinance 0 136 $0.00 300 $2,000 -$2,000 San Mateo County has a model ordinance for compostable only and is willing to enforce on behalf of cities. Apply single-use plastic prohibition to City operations 22 Directive 0 0 $0.00 - $2,000 -$2,000 Update solid waste ordinance to require recycling and composting services for all accounts 23 Ordinance 0 404 $0.00 8,100 $600 -$600 Implement zero waste requirements for new development in the Bayfront area 24 Directive 0 168 $0.00 800 $25,000 -$25,000 * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton, e.g. muni, business or resident 2 Appendix: B Moderate 2020 Action Action # Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non-Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost ($/ton) * 2030 State- wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions City of Menlo Park Moderate 3-yr Climate Action Plan - 2020 Subtotal 0 G: Adaptation Measures Monitor and participate in County preparations for sea level rise 25 Directive Public Works 0.05 - N/A - $100,000,000 -$100,000,000 Strongly recommend that Council request quarterly update from Public Works on City's plans and projected cost for addressing Sea Level Rise Increase urban canopy in Belle Haven to protect against urban heat island effect 26 Directive Public Works 0.05 7 $12,736 100 $12,000 -$912,000 Subtotal 0.1 H: Public Education Launch CAP education campaign w/ churches, Rotary clubs and PTAs 27 Program Public Engagement/ Sustainability 0.125 1,447 $1.73 28,900 $0 $0 Council members present to local groups Create City web page featuring Climate Action Plan, building electrification 28 Program 0.125 579 $4.32 31,800 $0 $0 Develop and publish electrification FAQ (copy an available version)29 Program 0.125 579 $4.32 31,800 $0 $0 Post on a City web page for Climate Action Plan and give to elected officials to help them counter misinformation and answer questions from public Speaker series on climate change and solutions 30 Program 0.125 96 $25.91 1,400 $0 $0 - Stanford professors: Mark Jacobson, sea level rise expert, VMT expert? - Berkeley professors: Dan Kammen, Bay sea level rise expert, levees and sea walls experts - Carbon-free aviation experts - Location: City hall Invite “ride and drive” organizers to showcase EVs at every City public event 31 Program, Collaboration Sustainability/ Public Engagement 0.125 1,223 $2.56 9,800 $200 -$200 Connect city to Acterra Induction cooking demonstration party for realtors, kitchen designers, architects, home cooks 32 Program, Collaboration 0.125 24 $103.57 500 $0 $0 Educate public on the merits of solar + batteries for resiliency during power outages 33 Program 0.125 644 $6.47 5,800 $0 $0 Hire marketing firm for city-wide CAP campaign 34 Program Communication/ Sustainability 0.125 3,859 $1.08 $11,600 $0 $0 Share aspirational CAP goals; Educate residents about what they can do; Share what will happen if we don’t act; Digital campaign, newspaper articles, speakers, classes, radio PSAs, TV?, mailers, signs around town, billboard?, signs on buses, banners downtown Subtotal 1 Based on Future prices Grand Total 6.5 Nat Gas $ 2.00 Per Therm Cost/ FTE $100,000 Gasoline $ 3.40 Per Gallon Costs $647,500 0 Electricity $ 0.22 Per kWh * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton, e.g. muni, business or resident 3 Appendix: B Moderate 2021 Action Action #Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non- Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost * ($/ton) 2030 State-wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions A: Municipal Greening Require % of construction vehicles to be EV on municipal construction projects 35 Directive carry over resources from 2020 76 -$512.90 1,500 $80,000 $244,000 B: Commercial Greening Install highway exit signs for EV fast charging 36 Directive carry over 159 $105.01 2,900 $8,000 -$8,000 Shows residents and commuters that EV Fast charging will help them go EV. Consider other cities’ ordinances requiring clean (EV) commercial fleets w/i city limits, e.g. FedEx, UPS 37 Ordinance EQC 0.50 1,438 $4.97 40,300 $45,000 $150,000 Consider: Recology garbage trucks, package delivery, Uber, construction vehicles, USPS, etc. Apply reach codes to commercial remodels 38 Ordinance 0.50 6,922 $2.41 124,600 $5,000 $5,550 Similar to ROB ordinance but captures opportunities before waiting for burnout after remodel C: Residential Greening Set City goal of 100% new cars to be EV within 3 years 39 0.05 7,120 $0.18 113,900 $0 $0 Metrics Require electrification of gas appliances and A/C upon burnout - residential 40 Ordinance carry over 9,463 $1.06 236,600 $2,000 $1,956 Also require A/C be converted Heat Pump Make sure reach codes apply fairly to ADUs, attached and detached 41 Ordinance 2,086 $0.00 4,200 $2,000 $2,748 Plugs gap noticed in other towns where garage is built new and then suddenly converted to ADU Apply reach codes to residential remodels and additions 42 Ordinance Sustainability/ Building 0.50 4,171 $4.00 137,700 $2,010 $1,155 Explore removing exemptions from reach codes 43 Ordinance carry over 2,773 $9.01 33,300 $0 $528 No gas stoves or fireplaces no gas heating in labs Create program for assisting low income homes w/ electrification 44 Program 0.25 4,635 $1.80 152,900 $2,000 $1,165 Possibly funded by UUT rev or by collaboration w/ PCE, and Rebuilding Together teaching on a MP home Adopt Marin limits on embodied carbon in construction and require materials that sequester carbon in residential construction (beyond state mandated GreenCode) 45 Ordinance carry over 1,862 $5.37 37,200 $25 -$25 Require electrification upon sale of property + complimentary rebate program 46 Ordinance carry over 12,583 $0.79 188,700 $10,500 $50 Assumes 30% rebate Consider extending EV wiring requirement to remodels and at resale 47 Ordinance carry over 6,602 $1.51 132,000 $400 $44,362 Consider leading regional effort to prohibit the sale of gas appliances w/i City limits 48 Ordinance 0.50 3,082 $1.62 339,000 $50 $2,060 Includes contracting, distributors & retail. Essentially no permits allowed for gas devices. D: VMT Reduction Designate car-free and low emission vehicle zones or premium parking 49 Ordinance 0.50 1,266 $3.95 151,900 $50,000 $196,375 (1) Design the geographic zone and the restrictions, exemptions, and prices (2) Build public support through consultation and experimentation (3) Designate the use of congestion-charge revenue for investments that benefit the city (4) Invest in mobility alternatives using public transit, bicycles, and walking (5) Consider what related policies may be needed (e.g. reduce parking requirements for new developments). Create safe thoroughfares for getting across town via protected multi-use paths 50 Directive 0.50 306 $8.18 73,400 $0 $15,000 City of Menlo Park Moderate 3-yr Climate Action Plan - 2021 * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton, e.g. muni, business or resident 4 Appendix: B Moderate 2021 Action Action #Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non- Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost * ($/ton) 2030 State-wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions City of Menlo Park Moderate 3-yr Climate Action Plan - 2021 Explore micro mobility options for last-mile transportation to/from transit 51 Directive 0.50 475 $35.11 17,100 $0 $0 E: Zero Waste Continue 2020 zero waste actions 52 0.00 709 $0.00 8,500 $0 $0 F: Carbon Removal Research multiple options for achieving 10% carbon removal 53 Program 0.125 28,400 $25.44 113,600 $0 -$710,000 Explore plan for reforestation with Peninsula Open Space Trust (POST) or other partner 54 Program, Collaboration 9,457 $16.32 37,800 $0 -$141,858 Research where state planted 9 million trees from Carbon Cap and Trade money allocation report Arbor Day mass tree planting 55 Program 9,457 $10.00 37,800 $0 -$94,572 If every MP resident planted 10 trees per year for 10 years, we would sequester 10% of our annual GHG emissions Consider having City fund a Recology biochar program, inc. City tree trimmings 56 Directive 9,457 $30.00 37,800 $0 -$283,716 Biochar sequesters carbon by turning dead trees and trimmings into charcoal that is then used as a healthy soil amendment G: Adaptation Measures Propose building moratorium or developer-funded escrow to cover building decommisioning cost in areas to be flooded deeper than 1 foot within 30 years 57 Ordinance 0.50 $200,000 N/A - $0 $0 H: Public Education Cooking class/demo with induction stove 58 Program, Collaboration carry over $22.19 9,000 $0 $0 Class for City residents: Zero Out Your Carbon Emissions 59 Program carry over 1,081 $23.12 8,600 $0 $0 Idea is to create a class for city residents (in the catalogue) that will show them how to reduce their carbon footprint. Intro: What are greenhouse gases and why are they warming our atmosphere? 1. How to calculate your carbon footprint 2. How to buy and drive an EV 3. How to install a heat pump and HPWH 4. How to choose and use an induction stove 5. How to install solar + batteries 6. How to choose low-carbon construction materials 7. How to create a Zero Waste home 8. How to repair your broken items, instead of throwing them out 9. How to buy carbon offsets and other sequestration options 10. How to use transit and “last mile” vehicles to get to transit 11. How to use ride share services Based on Future prices Grand Total 4.6 Nat Gas $ 2.00 Per Therm Cost/ FTE $100,000 Gasoline $ 3.40 Per Gallon Costs $455,000 $200,000.00 Electricity $ 0.22 Per kWh 0.125 * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton, e.g. muni, business or resident 5 Appendix: B Moderate 2022 Action Action #Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non-Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost * ($/ton) 2030 State- wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions A: Municipal Greening Support Menlo Park school districts in transitioning to electric school buses (Not really municipal Greening since it's a separate school district) 60 Collaboration 127 $0.00 3,000 $1,600,000 -$310,000 Improves student health, reduces air pollution, reduces GHGs and could provide power during grid outages. Council members meet w/ superintendents; request vehicle-to-grid charging capability for powering schools during power shut-offs B: Commercial Greening Explore Petaluma-style moratorium on 1) new gas stations and 2) expansion of existing ones or, as an alternative, limiting the permitted life of underground fuel storage tanks 61 Ordinance 159 $0.00 6,000 -$50,000 -$490,000 See Petaluma Explore a NYC-style carbon emissions fee on buildings 62 Ordinance 2,596 $0.00 104,000 $10,500 $50 Ban gas-powered lawn equipment 63 Ordinance 15 $0.00 - $300 $7,292 Encourage county region and state to lead. Although this has tiny GHG savings it has large Nox and Sox polluntant savings C: Residential Greening Announce an Arcata-style end date for the flow of natural gas in Menlo Park 64 Ordinance 86,465 $0.00 3,458,600 $11,250 -$5,777 Assumes higher inc cost than burn-out ordinance because replaced equipment still has useful life Consider expanding fire inspection to include gas appliances 65 Ordinance 7,471 $0.00 149,400 $0 $0 Consider Floor Area Ration (FAR) bonus for passive house building construction 66 Ordinance - N/A - $0 $0 Passive House design increases energy efficiency of homes, important as temps rise with climate change and grid is stressed by increased demand Decrease subsidies (free parking) and privileges (the ability to pollute roads) for gas cars 67 Ordinance 476 $0.00 19,000 $30,000 $1,250,000 Adopt ordinance prohibiting idling for vehicles with gas engines 68 Ordinance 286 $0.00 5,700 $0 $0 Announce gradual plan to make public parking for EVs only: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100%69 Ordinance 5,714 $0.00 160,000 $8,000 $81,524 Increasingly restrict use of gas cars in city (not allowed on certain roads, parking lots)70 Ordinance 5,714 $0.00 160,000 $8,000 $81,524 City of Menlo Park Moderate 3-yr Climate Action Plan - 2022 * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton , e.g. muni, business or resident 6 Appendix: B Moderate 2022 Action Action #Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non-Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost * ($/ton) 2030 State- wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions City of Menlo Park Moderate 3-yr Climate Action Plan - 2022 Implement public safety rule on underground gasoline tanks 71 Ordinance 7,936 $0.00 317,400 $150,000 -$1,770,000 D: VMT Reduction End subsidies for parking downtown for all vehicles 72 Ordinance 317 $0.00 12,700 $405,000 $10,545,000 E: Zero Waste Initiatives Explore hyper management of fugitive methane emissions from landfill and composting facilities 73 Directive 2,250 $8.00 90,000 $180,000 -$180,000 Could create local offsets for 10% Update construction and demolition ordinance 74 Directive 189 $0.00 2,300 $600 -$600 Establish library of things to reduce waste, improve access and equity, and enhance community relations 75 Directive 50 $180.00 2,000 $90,000 $22,500 Establish a grant program to convert privately owned drinking fountains to bottle filling stations 76 Directive 84 $0.00 1,700 $4,000 $21,000 Based on Future prices Grand Total 0 Nat Gas $ 2.00 Per Therm Cost/ FTE $100,000 Gasoline $ 3.40 Per Gallon Costs $ - 0 Electricity $ 0.22 Per kWh * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton , e.g. muni, business or resident 7 Appendix: B Bold 2020 Action Action # Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non-Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost * ($/ton) 2030 State- wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions B: Commercial Greening Adopt Petaluma-style moratorium on 1) new gas stations and 2) expansion of existing ones 61 Ordinance 159 $0.00 6,000 -$50,000 -$490,000 See Petaluma Prohibit use of gas vehicles for delivery (e.g. Amazon, FedEx, UPS)77 Ordinance 0.5 1,438 $4.97 40,269 $45,000 $150,000 Adopt Marin limits on embodied carbon in construction and require materials that sequester carbon in all commercial, residential and municipal construction 78 Ordinance Sustainability/ Building 0.5 6,286 $0.80 377,000 $1,200 -$1,200 C: Residential Greening Announce an Arcata-style end date for the flow of natural gas in Menlo Park 64 Ordinance 86,465 $0.00 3,459,000 $11,250 -$5,777 Assumes higher inc cost than burnout ordinance because replaced equipment still has useful life Announce gradual plan to make public parking for EVs only: 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100%69 Ordinance 5,714 $0.00 160,000 $8,000 $81,524 Increasingly restrict use of gas cars in city (not allowed on certain roads, parking lots)70 Ordinance 5,714 $0.00 160,000 $8,000 $81,524 Implement public safety rule on underground gasoline tanks 71 Ordinance 7,936 $0.00 317,000 $150,000 -$1,770,000 Raise Nat Gas UUT to 3.5% (to fund electrification of low income households, municipal electrification program and other Council-directed GHG reductions) 6 Directive Finance/ Sustainability 0.125 579 $2.16 35,000 $5,000 $473 First step is to increase UUT rate on natural gas. City Council then decides where to apply funds: electrification (+ batteries?) in 1) day cares, 2) municipal buildings, 3) schools, 4) low income residents’ homes. D: VMT Reduction Explore options for VMT reduction and set a city goal 16 Ordinance Transportation / Planning 0.5 5,714 $0.88 228,500 -$20,000 $20,000 Consider adjusting zoning & land use regs to encourage mixed use, dense development near transit to reduce the number of cars and car trips due to commuting; reduce parking minimums for new development; rezone single-family to include multi- family; explore electric shuttle service between Belle Haven and Caltrain; expand network of multi-use paths; explore electric "last mile" options from transit to common destinations Create safe thoroughfares for getting across town via protected multi-use paths 50 Directive 0.5 306 $8.18 73,400 $0 $15,000 End subsidies for parking downtown for all vehicles 72 Ordinance 316 $0.00 12,700 $405,000 $10,545,000 E: Zero Waste Initiatives Adopt Foodware Ordinance to reduce/eliminate plastics and single use disposable foodware 21 Ordinance 0 136 $0.00 300 $2,000 -$2,000 San Mateo County has a model ordinance for compostable only and is willing to enforce on behalf of cities. Apply single-use plastic prohibition to City operations 22 Directive 0 0 $0.00 - $2,000 -$2,000 City of Menlo Park Bold 1-yr Climate Action Plan - 2020 * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton, e.g. muni, business or resident 8 Appendix: B Bold 2020 Action Action # Type of Action Lead Dept/ Supporting Dept Community Engagement Req’d FTEs Required (per yr) 3-yr Non-Staff Costs (consultants, studies) 2030 Ann. GHG Reduced (tons/yr) City Cost * ($/ton) 2030 State- wide GHG Reductions Inspired by MP (tons/yr) Upfront Incremental Cost to Participant** After Rebates Net Savings to Participant** Notes & Assumptions City of Menlo Park Bold 1-yr Climate Action Plan - 2020 Update solid waste ordinance to require recycling and composting services for all accounts 23 Ordinance 0 404 $0.00 8,100 $600 -$600 Implement zero waste requirements for new development in the Bayfront area 24 Directive 0 168 $0.00 800 $25,000 -$25,000 Explore hyper management of fugitive methane emissions from landfill and composting facilities 73 Directive 2,250 $8.00 90,000 $180,000 -$180,000 Could create local offsets for 10% Update construction and demolition ordinance 74 Directive 189 $0.00 2,300 $600 -$600 Establish library of things to reduce waste, improve access and equity, and enhance community relations 75 Directive 50 $180.00 2,000 $90,000 $22,500 Include: toys, kitchen appliances and tools Establish a grant program to convert privately owned drinking fountains to bottle filling stations 76 Directive 84 $0.00 1,700 $4,000 $21,000 F: Carbon Removal Research multiple options for achieving 10% carbon removal 53 Program 0.125 28,400 $25.44 113,600 $0 -$710,000 G: Adaptation Measures Propose building moratorium or developer-funded escrow to cover building decommisioning cost in areas to be flooded deeper than 1 foot within 30 years 57 Ordinance 0.5 $200,000 - N/A - $0 $0 Monitor and participate in County preparations for sea level rise 25 Directive Public Works 0.05 - N/A - $100,000,000 -$100,000,000 Strongly recommend that Council request quarterly update from Public Works on City's plans and projected cost for addressing Sea Level Rise Based on Future prices Grand Total 2.8 Nat Gas $ 2.00 Per Therm Cost/ FTE $100,000 Gasoline $ 3.40 Per Gallon Costs $280,000 $ 200,000 Electricity $ 0.22 Per kWh * City Cost = (staff cost + capital inv + operating savings or cost) / tons of CO2e saved. Negative number is good. ** Participant is emitter targetted by aciton, e.g. muni, business or resident 9 Appendix: B Assumptions Model Assumptions Captured below are key assumptions used throughout this model. Input cells are marked in yellow. City Staff FTE Cost $100,000 per year Type Units GHG Emissions (CO2e lbs/unit) 2020 Future Price Projection ($/unit) Natural Gas therms 11.7 $2.00 Gasoline gallons 19.6 $3.40 Electricity kWh $0.22 Equipment Type Efficiency Ratio (BTUs out/BTUs in) Electric Heat Pump 3.5 Natural Gas Furnace 0.8 Buildling Source Natural Gas Emissions (tons/year) Electricity Emissions (tons/year) Number of Building Emitters** Municipal Buildings + Pools 865 - 1 Commercial Buildings 53,414 23,467 700 Houses + Apartments 32,186 7,013 14,000 Community Buildings Emissions 86,465 30,481 14,701 Vehicle Source Gasoline & Diesel Emissions (tons/year) Number of Vehicle Emitters** Municipal Vehicles 496 1 Equipment Efficiency Assumptions Fossil Fuel Assumptions 2017 City-Wide Annual GHG Emissions by Source* Building Emitter** Vehicle Emitter** The City Commercial Building Owners Homeowners + Landlords All Buildling Owners The City 10 Appendix: B Assumptions Commercial Vehicles 35,954 3,000 Residential Vehicles 122,265 13,500 Community Vehicle Emissions 158,715 16,501 Waste Source Waste Emissions (tons/year) Number of Waste Emitters** Ox Mountain Landfill (active) 8,424 14,701 Plastic Foodware 200 Marsh Road Landfill (retired) 5,000 1 Total City-Wide Emissions 284,085 14,701 City-Wide Building & Vehicle Emissions (excl. Waste) 275,661 16,501 * Taken from December 2019 Sustainability Staff Report on Menlo Park Greenhouse Gas Inventory ** A target "emitter" is an entity that has decision-making authority over an emissions source and therefore may be a target "participant" in CAP policies and programs From [GHG inventory summary 2005-2017t.xlsx]bucket'! Building Type Number of Building Emitters** Multi-Family Buildings 200 Multi-Family Units 2,000 Single Family Dwellings 12,000 Accessory Dwelling Units 100 Commercial + Multi-Family Buildings 900 Building Type Number of Building Owners Avg. Sq. Footage per Building Owner % of Building Owners Who Remodel or Build Each Year Construction Volume (sq ft/year) Embodied GHG Emissions in Construction Materials (CO2e lbs/sq ft) Embodied Construction GHG Emissions (tons CO2e) Number of Building Owners Who Build Each Year Municipal Buildings + Pools 1 1,200,000 1% 12,000 100 600 0.01 Commercial Buildings 700 20,000 5% 700,000 100 35,000 35 Restaurants The City All Bulding Owners Business Owners with Fleets Households w/ Gas Vehicles All Vehicle Owners Waste Emitter** All Building Owners TOTALS Building Emitter Qty Breakdown Embodied GHG Emissions from Construction Activities in Community Buildings All Vehicle Owners 11 Appendix: B Assumptions Households 14,000 2,000 5% 1,400,000 60 42,000 700 TOTAL 2,112,000 77,600 735 12 Appendix C: Climate Decision Tree Analysis Question: What happens if Menlo Park does or does not fully fund ($500k/yr for 3 yrs) a bold climate action plan (CAP)? 1. Menlo Park fully funds CAP - $1.5 million No Yes $0.0 $1.5 2. 20 other CA cities pass bold CAPs No Yes Expected Value of Decision ($ million)$1,267 $1,123 Expected Value of Boldness $144 million No Yes 80%20%Value multiplier 96 20%80% Probability world meets Paris targets 27%36% 3. CA passes bold climate laws No Yes No Yes Probability world fails to meet Paris targets 73%64%No Yes No Yes 60%40%20%80%55%45%20%80% 4. 10 progressive US states enact bold climate laws No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes 80%20%20%80%75%25%20%80%80%20%20%80%75%25%20%80% 5. US meets Paris targets No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes 95%5%50%50%85%15%40%60%90%10%45%55%85%15%40%60%95%5%50%50%85%15%40%60%90%10%45%55%85%15%40%60% 6. World meets Paris targets No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes 99%1%70%30%65%35%60%40%95%5%50%50%65%35%35%65%99%1%70%30%65%35%60%40%95%5%50%50%65%35%35%65%99%1%70%30%65%35%60%40%95%5%50%50%65%35%35%65%99%1%70%30%65%35%60%40%95%5%50%50%65%35%35%65% Probability of this outcome 36%0%1%1%3%2%3%2%5%0%0%0%7%4%5%10%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%0%0%0%3%2%3%5%8%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%2%1%2%3%11%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%10%1%1%1%13%7%11%20% Adaptation Costs ($ mil) 3-foot Sea Walls req’d @ $100 million*$100 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 6-foot Sea Walls req’d @ $300 million additional**$300 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Abandon land between 101 and Bay @ $1.288 billion***$1,288 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Adaptation costs ($ million)$1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 $1,688 $100 Expected value of adaptation costs ($ million)$610 $0 $23 $1 $53 $2 $49 $2 $87 $0 $8 $0 $112 $4 $91 $10 $45 $0 $4 $0 $5 $0 $6 $0 $44 $0 $4 $0 $56 $2 $45 $5 $140 $0 $5 $0 $12 $0 $11 $0 $25 $0 $2 $0 $32 $1 $26 $3 $180 $0 $14 $0 $20 $1 $22 $1 $174 $1 $16 $1 $225 $7 $181 $20 Scenario #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 ** Source: “Choosing a Future Shoreline for San Francisco Bay: Strategic Coastal Adaptation Insights from Cost Estimation,” The Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, p. 12 shows that increasing levee height by 2x results in 4x increase in cost, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniella_Hirschfeld/publication/320111123_Choosing_a_Future_Shoreline_for_ the_San_Francisco_Bay_Strategic_Coastal_Adaptation_Insights_from_Cost_Estimation/links/5a947590aca2721405674 b35/Choosing-a-Future-Shoreline-for-the-San-Francisco-Bay-Strategic-Coastal-Adaptation-Insights-from-Cost- Estimation.pdf?origin=publication_detail *** Source: "County of San Mateo Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment, March 2018," p. 139. https://seachangesmc.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-03-12_SLR_VA_Report_2.2018_WEB_FINAL.pdf * Source: "Public Draft Feasibility Report, SAFER Bay Project Strategy to Advance Flood protection, Ecosystems and Recreation along San Francisco Bay East Palo Alto and Menlo Park (Task Order 1) October 2016," p. 37/49, http://www.sfcjpa.org/documents/SAFER_Bay_Public_Draft_Feasibility_Report_Summary_Oct._2016_.pdf Expected Value of Menlo Park Expenditures on Climate Action Plan + Related Adaptation Measures - 64 Scenarios and Probabilities From:Gary Latshaw To:Gilee Corral Subject:files for item 3 Date:Thursday, October 15, 2020 10:00:21 AM Attachments:EXEC-2017-000190_7 - DOE Assessment CO2_0.pdf Env Commission.pptx Gilee - Please make these part of written communications for item 3. Thanks, Gary Departmental Response: Assessment of the Report of the SEAB Task Force on CO2 Utilization Introduction On June 7th, 2016, Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz charged the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board (SEAB) to create a Task Force that would describe a framework for a Department of Energy (DOE) research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) program on carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization technologies that have the potential to reduce CO2 emissions and/or introduce negative emissions at the gigatonne (Gt) scale. The Task Force was asked to review current activities in the DOE, industry, national laboratories, academia, and non-profits, and identify new opportunities for research and cooperation between different disciplinary groups. In response to this charge, SEAB created a Task Force, led by SEAB Vice Chairman Arun Majumdar, composed of 3 SEAB members and 8 other prominent scientists and engineers from academia and industry. The resulting report was developed through discussion with relevant DOE programs, including Science (SC), Fossil Energy (FE), Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), and Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E), and through Task Force deliberations. The report was subsequently reviewed by a second group of 8 experts from relevant disciplines, including 1 SEAB member, who provided suggestions for the report. The report was reviewed by the full SEAB and approved at the December 12th, 2016 meeting of the Board. The framework developed by the Task Force clearly demonstrates the complexities inherent in this enormous challenge. In each of the Task Force’s recommendations, fundamental scientific research is needed in order to make progress, and the report helpfully lays out several of the most important focus areas in its appendices. Many of the suggested areas for research overlap with current research directions in SC and applied RD&D programs managed by FE, EERE, and ARPA-E. Critically, the Task Force has recognized that progress depends not only on development of new fundamental knowledge and applied R&D, but on an systems-based approach that integrates the scientific and engineering efforts of all relevant stakeholders, including the DOE, other Federal agencies, academia, the national laboratories, industry, and non-profits. While financial support for basic research comes completely from the DOE’s Office of Science, DOE support for energy technology projects include some level of cost sharing with the award recipient. Such public-private support for RD&D promotes the systems approach recommended by the Task Force, ensuring that stakeholders, especially industry, are financially engaged even in the early stages of technology development, that the research portfolio remains relevant to stakeholder interests, and that public sector risk is reduced. Summary of Task Force Report The rate of global CO2 emissions is approximately 40 GtCO2 per year (GtCO2/yr), approximately half of which is taken up by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. The other half, approximately 18 GtCO2/yr, accumulates in the atmosphere, contributing to radiative forcing and global warming. Reversing the current trend represents a monumental effort in emissions reduction across the entire energy system and potentially additional net CO2 removal from the atmosphere, also known as negative emissions. There are increasingly viable technological options that, if widely implemented, would enable significant emissions reductions from the electricity sector. The diffuse nature of emissions from the transportation and industrial sectors make deep de-carbonization significantly more challenging without scientific and technological breakthroughs. Given the enormous scale of the problem, the Task Force has developed a framework encompassing a variety of pathways, each of which could enable emissions reduction and/or negative emissions through utilization and/or sequestration at the 1 GtCO2/yr scale. Several technological approaches show promise for enabling GtCO2/yr reductions if a sustained effort is made in research, development, and demonstration (RD&D). Rather than investigate each of these options in detail, the Task Force has considered RD&D options within a larger, holistic framework. This framework recognizes that for every emissions reduction pathway, a decision must be made on whether CO2 will be captured from the air or from a point source, on a capture and/or conversion process to convert the CO2 into a form suited to reuse and/or sequestration, and on whether to use the product or permanently sequester it to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. The approaches described in the Task Force’s five recommendations have a relatively high degree of confidence in their scalability and represent a significant RD&D opportunity. RD&D in each of these approaches has the potential to significantly progress the technology. The five recommendations are summarized below. Recommendation 1: Systems Modeling. New systems models that go beyond today’s integrated assessment models and include the non-linear impacts of technological pathways at the GtCO2/yr scale that are critical for understanding positive and negative environmental impacts. Such models could predict optimal combinations of emissions reduction approaches described in the following recommendations and could guide the development of an RD&D portfolio that provides the maximum potential for reduction and minimal environmental impact before investing in any one technology or combination of technology pathways. Given the necessity of private sector investment in scaling up different technological approaches, new systems models will help explore scenarios and quantify the risks inherent in the different approaches of Recommendations 2 through 5. Recommendation 2: Harnessing the Natural Biological Carbon Cycle. Photosynthesis in plants drives the largest flux of carbon between the land and atmosphere (440 GtCO2/yr). Manipulating the natural carbon cycle to absorb more carbon from the atmosphere and store more carbon in the land represents one of the largest opportunities for realizing negative emissions. This approach has positive potential co-benefits for production of food, fuels (in the form of biofuel), and fiber, but also a large potential for risk and the requirement for fastidious management of the resource well after it stops contributing to atmospheric CO2 reductions. A robust RD&D program in this space should focus on maximizing photosynthetic efficiency in plants while maintaining or reducing resource input, understanding the benefits of marine microalgae for land-based energy and liquid fuels, engineering of the rhizosphere for greater carbon sequestration, and stabilizing soil carbon through sustainable agricultural techniques. Recommendation 3: Synthetic Transformations of CO2. Carbon dioxide is a chemical feedstock capable of being converted into a variety of chemical compounds having significant commercial value. This includes direct conversion into carbon-based fuels, or conversion to precursors used to synthesize more complex compounds. This transformation is driven along one of four pathways and requires significant energy input. An RD&D portfolio for energy efficient synthetic transformation should focus on discovering new electro- and photo-electrocatalysts made from earth abundant elements, identifying new materials that enable lower temperature thermochemical transformations, engineering organisms that use non-photosynthetic catalysts for CO2 fixation, and designing new chemical reactors scalable to the GtCO2/yr scale. Recommendation 4: Carbon Dioxide Sequestration in Geologic Formations. Geological storage is the only method of sequestering CO2 that offers GtCO2/yr capacity on the millennial time scale. The combination of storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs and saline formations provides orders of magnitude more capacity than is needed to realize negative emissions. However, storage generally has no economic value in the absence of policy drivers except in the case of enhanced oil recovery, the value of which also depends on external factors. A RD&D portfolio for geological storage needs to address basic science (long term fate of geologically confined CO2, CO2 mineralization, and the impact of scale up), create a robust monitoring system to ensure safe storage, and conduct jointly funded public-private pilot scale demonstration projects to test co-optimized CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) and CO2 storage methods. Finally, a Data Commons should be created that serves as a shared resource for all stakeholders to use in developing new techniques and creating models to predict long-time scale behavior of stored CO2. Recommendation 5: Carbon Dioxide Capture and Other Separation Technologies. CO2 utilization and storage generally require concentrated streams of CO2. This necessitates separating the CO2 from other gases in a mixture, for example from a power plant or from the atmosphere. Overcoming the entropy of mixing requires the input of energy. Reducing the energy, and therefore the cost, of separation and transformation requires a robust RD&D program for new sorbents having both low binding enthalpy and high binding rate constants, new non-aqueous liquid solutions (e.g. ionic liquids) or adsorption based solids (e.g. zeolites and metal organic frameworks) that selectively bind CO2, novel membranes, and new materials for separating miscible liquids. Additional Recommendations. The Task Force has identified two topics that are worth deeper exploration but currently have a lower degree of confidence in their scalability and the RD&D opportunity. The first topic, direct air capture (DAC), has been estimated to cost about $600/tCO2. Lowering this cost will require both basic research into new sorbents as well as RD&D in systems integration. The Task Force notes that DAC would benefit from the RD&D programs recommended for conversion (recommendation 3) and separations (recommendation 5). The second, mineralization in oceans, requires RD&D to discover new methods to induce mineral formation without further acidifying the ocean. This approach is inherently very risky due to the uncertain response of ocean ecosystems to mineralization at the GtCO2 scale. Cross-cutting Issues. The Task Force identifies several cross-cutting issues that underpin the above recommendations. First and foremost, any and all technological approaches to capture, separate, transport, convert, or sequester CO2 require the input of energy. It is counterproductive if the source of this energy is not derived from carbon neutral or carbon free sources. An extensive RD&D program that strives to dramatically reduce the cost of clean energy remains a critical piece of a negative emissions program. Second, in order to quickly drive down the cost of negative emissions technology, basic science, systems engineering, economics, and policy must be integrated with significant feedback mechanisms built into the system. Third, the GtCO2/yr scale will inevitably have impacts, intentional or otherwise, on the biosphere. This necessitates a parallel RD&D effort and widespread monitoring of the climate and biosphere. Fourth, community workshops will be critically important in formulating the RD&D efforts for each recommendation. Finally, technology development and implementation at this scale requires a large, skilled workforce. Investments in education will be critical to meeting this need. DOE Response to Task Force Recommendations Recommendation 1: Systems Modeling. The Office of Science will continue to prioritize fundamental research focused on obtaining a mechanistic understanding of how biological systems — both plant and microbial — interact with biotic and abiotic factors to affect carbon cycling and storage at the ecosystem scale. Quantitative and predictive models reflecting key parameters of nutrient use, plant-microbe interactions, plant architectures, and biogeochemical cycling that successfully scale from the molecular to the ecosystem level will be developed through field experiments, in-situ sensor and genomic technology development, and cyberinfrastructure to facilitate data analysis and multiscale modeling. Scientific workshops and joint principal investigators’ meetings will be organized to bring different research communities together to discuss technical challenges and opportunities and develop a common vocabulary. The Office of Fossil Energy will continue to support development of models for its energy technologies, including advanced cycle fossil power plants, carbon capture, carbon storage, CO2 utilization, industrial CO2 management, and CO2-EOR. These models will be used to explore and optimize scenarios for deployment of multiple technology solutions, provide predictions of carbon management potential, and be paired with technology-specific lifecycle analysis and techno-economic modeling. An integrated representation of infrastructure and integration including CO2 pipelines and transportation, CO2 markets, as well as policies and regulations will allow the implications of different scenarios to be explored. Technology modeling will continue to be integrated with R&D programs to promote deep systems understanding, cost and risk analyses. The Office of Science efforts above will seek to combine the latest scientific information on carbon fluxes in natural and managed ecosystems with integrated assessment models, ultimately providing a systems-level model of the global carbon balance at different degrees of spatial and temporal resolutions. The Office of Fossil Energy will also identify opportunities to enhance representation of emerging technologies and system interactions in integrated assessment models. Office of Science computing facilities will continue to provide key infrastructure and data analysis capabilities as integration of multiple models requires increasing resolution and compute power. Engagement of and collaboration with the relevant research communities will be important in determining their computational needs and requirements. Recommendation 2: Harnessing the Natural Biological Carbon Cycle. The United States has vast terrestrial resources (over 520 million hectares of crop, range and forestland) that are a strategic asset essential for sustainable economic growth. Advances in technology have resulted in a ten-fold increase in crop productivity over the past hundred years at the cost of declining soil quality. This progress has incurred a soil carbon debt equivalent to 65 parts per million (ppm) of atmospheric CO2. The soil carbon debt has also increased the need for costly nitrogen fertilizer, which has become the primary source of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, a potent greenhouse gas. The soil carbon debt also impacts crop water use, increasing susceptibility to drought stress, which threatens future productivity. Given the scale of domestic (and global) agriculture resources, there is tremendous potential to reverse these trends by harnessing the photosynthetic bridge between atmospheric carbon, plants, microbes and soil. Efforts in several DOE programs are currently tackling this challenge. Research in SC on natural, model, and engineered plant species is greatly expanding fundamental understanding of plant growth as well as photosynthetic efficiency, and carbon capture and adaptation in both plants and microbes. Approaches range from basic biochemical and biophysical studies of photosynthesis and carbon dioxide reduction to genomics-enabled breeding and biodesign to engineer new or improved traits for growth under varying environmental conditions. Scientific user facilities such as the Joint Genome Institute and the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory currently offer enabling tools and technology to the broad research community. Similarly, high-resolution imaging capabilities at SC synchrotron and neutron sources facilitate analytical characterization of key photosynthetic processes, apparatus, and subcellular components. Several current SC-sponsored research programs are seeing success leveraging new science to modify plants and confer enhanced efficiency and resilience. Other SC research programs supporting biochemical and biophysical research on photosynthetic antenna complexes are providing fundamental insights on how these natural complexes work and how they may be redesigned to enhance light capture. Synthetic pigment-protein molecules that are based on knowledge derived from the natural complexes are already being used to test hypotheses about efficient photon capture and excitation distribution in natural photosynthesis. Such synthetic pigment-protein molecules could one day be used to expand the spectral range of sunlight that can be captured by natural photosynthetic organisms and/or artificial photosynthetic systems. Fundamental biochemical research and genetic engineering approaches have enabled accelerated recovery from photoprotection mechanisms, which has been proven in field studies to increase plant productivity by enhancing photosynthetic efficiency. New efforts to leverage advances in tunable, synthetic pigment design, catalytic function and regulation, and genome editing and engineering may reveal novel biological and bioinspired systems with synergistic capacity for improved light and carbon capture. Joint scientific workshops and principal investigator meetings will facilitate information exchange and build new research collaborations with combined strengths in the physical and genomic research communities. ARPA-E recently launched the Rhizosphere Observations Optimizing Terrestrial Sequestration (ROOTS) program with the selection of 10 projects that seek to develop advanced technologies and crop cultivars that enable a 50 percent increase in soil carbon accumulation while reducing N2O emissions by 50 percent and increasing water productivity by 25 percent. Development of new root-focused plant cultivars could dramatically and economically reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations while improving productivity, resilience and sustainability. The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy is sponsoring a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) funding opportunity directed at optimizing biomass carbon conversion efficiency through arrested methanogenesis and carboxylate upgrading. EERE is also working to establish and sponsor additional efforts to optimize biomass carbon conversion efficiency including strategies that employ thermocatalytic, biocatalytic or unique combined processes. These novel biomass conversion strategies would leverage carbon-free energy resources to achieve 100% biomass carbon conversion efficiency thereby providing complimentary biomass conversion optimization technologies to those being developed to optimize biomass generation. This idea, initially proposed at the DOE’s Big Ideas Summit in April, is continuing to see development by SC and EERE. The Office of Fossil Energy is sponsoring research that uses organisms to convert CO2 to harvestable biomass, oils, or other high value products such as pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals. This research builds on the fundamental knowledge and tools developed by SC and the EERE biomass program. Existing applied R&D in FE is focused on supporting feasibility and engineering design studies on how to efficiently integrate algae based photo bioreactor and pond systems into coal based power plants at scale. Some of the work has focused on genomic research to identifying strains of organisms which are resistant to trace contaminants present in coal power plants and characterizing the biomass to make a variety of bio-products. Further research will be necessary to validate these new strains of organisms and the processes innovation proposed for power plant integration. The oceans offer a unique opportunity to sidestep many of the challenges associated with terrestrial biomass production systems, particularly the growing competition for land and freshwater resources. ARPA-E has recently released a FOA for the Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources (MARINER) program that intends to develop the critical tools that will allow the nascent macroalgae industry in the United States to leverage this tremendous resource and grow into a world leader in the production of marine biomass. The program focuses on developing advanced cultivation technologies that enable the cost and energy efficient production of macroalgal biomass in the ocean at a scale suitable as feedstock for the production of fuels and chemicals. Specifically, the program is interested in new designs and approaches to macroalgae cultivation systems, with harvesting and transport being an integral component. These new systems may leverage new material and engineering solutions, autonomous and robotic operations, and advanced sensing and monitoring capabilities. To further accelerate the development and deployment of such systems, the program focuses on the development of computational modeling tools and ocean-deployable sensor platforms, as well as advanced macroalgal breeding tools. ARPA-E expects that the MARINER program will support development of technologies that will accelerate the deployment of advanced ocean farming systems capable of delivering renewable biomass feedstock at a cost competitive with terrestrial biomass feedstocks. Recommendation 3: Synthetic Transformations of CO2. The Office of Science is supporting research at multiple scales in photo-, electro-, and biocatalysis relevant to CO2 conversion. This includes research by single-investigators and small- teams via the core research programs, and large, multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional collaborations in several Energy Frontier Research Centers and the Fuels from Sunlight Energy Innovation Hub. Multidisciplinary chemical and biochemical approaches are revealing catalytic mechanisms of water splitting and CO2 reduction that is increasing our fundamental understanding of natural photosynthesis and establishing a foundation for enhancing natural photosynthetic efficiency and for developing artificial photosynthetic systems. Other basic research is providing insights into the conversion of CO2 to products such as carbon monoxide, formate, alcohols, methane, and even higher hydrocarbons. All of these products either have significant economic value currently or have value as precursors to other high value chemical products. This research continues to provide foundational knowledge broadly applicable to CO2 reduction as well as other electrochemical reactions, including proton and dinitrogen reduction reactions that are necessary for several novel hydrogen and ammonia production processes, respectively. This in-depth understanding of mechanisms and structure/function relationships is providing the insight needed to develop biomimetic catalysts and to improve biological and synthetic systems. Foundational studies of electron transfer processes in biological and chemical systems are also providing clues in how to reduce overpotentials in electro- and photoelectrochemical systems, generate low-potential reductants via electron bifurcation, and exploit the property of catalytic bias observed in some enzymes. Other research efforts are examining the fundamental electrochemistry of materials as well as the chemical transformations of materials in operational environments. Critically, the DOE is also supporting R&D across the Department to develop new methods that will cost-effectively scale to meet current and future demand for CO2-derived products. Three of the recently announced projects in the ARPA-E program Renewable Energy to Fuels through Utilization of Energy-Dense Liquids (REFUEL) program are developing scalable electrochemical technologies for converting CO2 into energy-dense carbon-neutral liquid fuels using electrical energy from renewable sources. EERE is sponsoring a SBIR funding opportunity directed at identifying novel non-photosynthetic strategies to reduce carbon oxides from waste gas streams or atmospheric carbon dioxide. Proposals are being accepted for biological, non- biological, or unique combined strategies that can reduce the carbon oxides to fuels, products, or relevant chemical intermediates. CO2-derived products at the industrial scale that are cost effective and energy efficient requires that chemical precursors be available at similar cost and scale. For synthetic transformation of CO2, this means providing a suitable reductant that can be produced from clean energy sources at sufficient scale. Hydrogen (H2) is one option that is already widely used in the chemical industry for CO2 reduction and many other critically important chemical transformations. Today, over 90% of the H2 produced in the US per year comes from natural gas. The EERE- sponsored H2@Scale initiative is developing new methods for the production of clean, low cost H2 from domestic renewable and nuclear power. Developing low cost, high efficiency, and low emission methods for H2 production would be enabling for synthetic transformations of CO2. Building on the foundational science supported by SC, EERE is also exploring renewable hydrogen production from several water splitting pathways through the HydroGEN Consortium. Established in 2016 as part of DOE’s Energy Materials Network, HydroGEN is a consortium of six DOE national laboratories that will address advanced water splitting materials challenges by making unique, world-class national lab capabilities in photoelectrochemical, solar thermochemical, and low- and high-temperature electrolytic water splitting more accessible to academia, industry, and other national labs. R&D and associated efforts sponsored by FE is targeting reduced barriers to CO2 use in the production of low carbon products and in offsetting the cost of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies. The goal is to identify and mature opportunities that could enable more near-term and rapid deployment of CCS. FE funded projects since 2010 have focused on chemicals, fuels, polymers, cement/aggregates, and products from algae. Currently, project selections are being made from a recent FOA that covered mineralization concepts, biological- based concepts, and novel physical and chemical processes. Fossil Energy is supporting R&D efforts in electrocatalysis and photoelectrocatalysis and actively seeks to identify such catalysts made of abundant elements and having low overpotentials. In separate work on fuel conversion, FE supports R&D involving thermochemical redox reactions for relaying oxygen and producing hydrogen at temperatures in the vicinity of 1000°C. Many FE projects are considering novel reactor designs and systems architectures, including modular systems that can facilitate early adoption and more quickly demonstrate a positive operational track record. Ongoing EERE investments through the Advanced Manufacturing Office, such as the Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing Innovation and the Carbon Fiber Test Facility, along with recent investment additions such as Reducing Embodied energy And Decreasing Emissions (REMADE) are helping to create pathways for industrial products to be sourced from non- petroleum sources and for reclamation of carbon from products at the end of their life cycle. For example, plant fibers can be used as an alternative to petroleum sources to produce high value carbon fiber as a commercial product. Technologies like these essential sequester CO2 in long-lived fiber-based commercial and industrial products. Recycling these and other materials at the end of their life-cycle using technologies developed from EERE resources such as the REMADE institute rather than placing them in landfills, where they can decompose and release CO2 back to the atmosphere, or burning them can also enhance long term sequestration of CO2 within useful products. The Office of Science is currently planning several workshops relevant to synthetic transformations of CO2. Three Basic Research Needs workshops on catalysis, hydrogen, and solar energy will be updated with new workshops and reports over the next year or two. As appropriate, these workshops will be joint efforts with EERE, FE, and ARPA-E. Critical information about current technological barriers within these areas will be provided by EERE, FE, and ARPA-E, providing important foundational knowledge for the identification and prioritization of basic research challenges and gaps. The Office of Science will also conduct a roundtable-type workshop on research gaps in catalysis in early 2017. Fossil Energy, EERE’s Bioenergy Technology Office, and SC have also been working together to engage with the National Academies on a deeper study of CO2 utilization R&D areas that would serve to continue where the SEAB study left off on this and other topics. Finally, EERE is sponsoring a workshop at the 2017 International Solar Fuels Conference in San Diego looking at the state-of- technology and research paths forward for non-photosynthetic carbon reduction. Recommendation 4: Carbon Dioxide Sequestration in Geologic Formations. The Task Force emphasizes the important connection between enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO2 sequestration (CCS) technologies as a means of reducing the overall cost of large-scale CO2 storage in geologic formations, a strategy that is likely essential to achieving negative carbon emissions. Office of Science research is providing the basic science knowledge that underlies the reservoir engineering necessary to achieve the goals laid out in the Task Force report. Through the Subsurface Science, Technology and Engineering R&D (SubTER) Crosscut, efforts from SC are tightly coupled to ongoing efforts in DOE’s applied energy programs, in particular the Oil and Gas and Carbon Storage programs in the Office of Fossil Energy (FE). Effective reservoir management and monitoring activities (including optimizing the connection between CO2-EOR and CCS) requires a fundamental understanding of multiphase fluid flow and of the connection between injection rates and the state of stress in crystalline basement rocks that potentially triggers induced seismicity, as well as of the behavior of CO2-H2O films that govern wellbore and caprock integrity. Through the core SC Geosciences program and three CCS-focused EFRCs, supported research activities include the development of novel full-waveform seismic inversion techniques capable of imaging the evolution and mobility of multi-phase fluids in response to changes in stress; the influence of chemical reactions in altering the state of permeability of subsurface formations; and biomineralization processes that impact caprock and well sealing, the rheological behavior and stress response functions, and time-dependent permeability of materials under extreme conditions in the cores of major fault zones. The programs are also strongly invested in fundamental science underlying the distribution and dynamics of multiphase fluid mixtures in geomaterials, as well as the phase equilibria, crystallization sequences, and kinetics of carbonate cements that alter the permeability of caprock over geological time scales. Office of Fossil Energy is supporting research for risk assessment quantification for geologic storage operations including migration through geologic strata, well bores, faults, and fractures; effects and mitigation of induced seismicity due to pressure perturbations in the subsurface; geochemical changes affecting permeability and porosity; as well as developing monitoring and simulation tools to quantify storage performance and fluid migration. In addition the program is working to develop field test sites for storage in different classes of geologic formations; test innovative injection control schemes to maximize storage efficiency; and characterize future commercial storage facilities throughout the United States. All of this is done with the intent of archiving the data collected form this research in a central database such as the Energy Data Exchange system. Going forward, DOE will be enhancing and integrating these efforts, in part through the SubTER Crosscut that continues through FY 2022. As an example, SC, FE, and the EERE-Geothermal Technology Office are jointly working with the Board on Earth Sciences and Resources of the National Academy of Sciences to organize a workshop defining the current state-of-the-art in imaging state-of-stress and wellbore integrity associated with H2O-CO2 injection into the crust. DOE is also active in the international Carbon Capture Innovation Challenge, for which a technical workshop will be hosted by the U.S. in the summer of 2017. The workshop will convene top experts to discuss breakthrough opportunities and find international RD&D synergies in carbon capture, geologic storage, and CO2 utilization. Recommendation 5: Carbon Dioxide Capture and Other Separation Technologies. Separating the CO2 from mixtures for storage or further conversion demands a large fraction of the overall energy and operating cost of chemical processes. Fundamental principles of thermodynamics and reaction kinetics underlie the challenges impeding such advances. Enhancing partition coefficients via novel liquid absorbents or solid adsorbents, advanced selective membranes and polymers, and hybrid liquid-porous systems offer opportunities for lower-cost, higher-capacity separations. The Office of Science is currently pursuing many of these opportunities in both core research activities and Energy Frontier Research Centers. Well-represented areas that could be applied to separation processes include molecular binding energies, molecular dynamics, transport in macrostructures, molecular recognition principles, and the relationships between molecular and material structures and their binding properties. Polymeric, inorganic, biomolecular, and hybrid organic-inorganic membranes, all strengths of the SC research program, are enabling for the design of separation media for some gas mixtures. Areas in which SC-supported research could be strengthened to better address the recommendation include competitive binding and selectivity in complex mixtures, design of membranes for complex liquid mixtures, separations for dilute streams, and more generally the combined application of multiple specialized fields of knowledge in the context of novel separation mechanisms. Basic research in the separation of salts and ions using solvent extraction methods has the potential to reduce the energy intensity of other separations such as sea-water desalination or metal extraction from minerals, thereby reducing CO2 emissions. The Office of Fossil Energy is moving toward large scale demonstration of advanced carbon capture technologies that can reduce the cost of carbon capture significantly below the current state-of-the-art solvent based technologies. Research over the past several years has developed over a dozen novel separation technologies, including non-aqueous solvents, solid sorbents, and novel membranes. These 2nd generation technologies are expected to be ready for commercial demonstration by 2020. In 2017, the FE is starting a program to leverage national laboratories capabilities to begin scaling transformational technologies developed by the EFRC and others. A program focused on materials discovery using advanced computational capabilities, leveraging the lab and industries investment in advanced manufacturing, and establishing a partnership with industry on process design and integration will accelerate the pace at which novel materials come to the market. The Office of Science will continue to sponsor workshops that include separation topics and/or that will identify molecular and materials research priorities relevant to separations. Going forward, there is a need to focus on achieving deeper understanding of separation processes at the interfacial, transport, molecular, atomic, and electronic levels, as well as on the design of separation media, in order to significantly move forward the field of separations of complex gas or carbon-containing mixtures. The Office of Science will explore opportunities to enhance and integrate these activities. Additional Recommendation: Direct Air Capture and Mineralization in Oceans. Direct Air Capture. There is currently no large scale RD&D programs in direct air capture (DAC) of CO2 from the atmosphere that are sponsored by the DOE. Several recent studies referenced in the Task Force report have estimated the cost to be approximately $600/tCO2, if not higher. In the absence of other drivers, reducing this price necessitates scientific and/or technological breakthroughs. As noted by the Task Force, many of the most important science drivers described in response to recommendation 5, including developing novel liquid absorbents and solid adsorbents, membranes, and hybrid systems, would contribute to developing low cost DAC and are being addressed through current Office of Science and Fossil Energy-sponsored research. This research agenda has significant potential benefits for areas with much greater, and more immediate, economic impact than DAC, including waste water treatment, sea water desalination, and mineral extractions, among others. Advances in these areas could help drive down the cost of DAC. Addressing the complex engineering issues inherent in DAC at the GtCO2 scale through targeted RD&D will be predicated on breakthroughs that bring the cost and energy intensity of separation down substantially. Mineralization in Oceans. The DOE recognizes oceans as an important component of the Earth system, including understanding how the carbon and water cycles interact with regional and global climates. The Office of Science’s Earth System Modeling program includes ocean research activities focused on enhancing and analyzing models of sea ice physics, ocean mixing, circulation dynamics, and larger scale oscillations such as El Nino. These research activities focus on numerical methods, model integration, and analysis. The development of models that accurately represent the complex behaviors of the ocean are a critically important component to any future RD&D effort that targets the oceans for long term CO2 sequestration. DOE scientific workshops and principal investigators’ meetings that cover relevant topics will be organized to include various ocean research communities to discuss technical challenges and mutual opportunities. These meetings are expected to help improve model parameterizations based on field observations collected by other agencies, and reduce uncertainty in describing how the oceans interact with other components of the Earth system across a variety of scales. Field-scale experimental activities, including ocean mineralization approaches described in the Task Force report, are currently outside the mission scope of the Department. Conclusion Considered together, the RD&D programs described in the responses to the Task Force’s recommendations represent a significant effort to develop both the multi-disciplinary foundational knowledge and early-stage technology necessary for a CO2 utilization and/or sequestration program at the gigatonne per year scale that could realistically realize dramatic reductions in, or negative, CO2 emissions across the entire energy sector. The new science and technology derived from these RD&D programs will also pay dividends by helping increase efficiencies, lower production costs, reduce energy and water consumption, reduce emissions, and increase product yields across a multitude of sectors. As such, these RD&D efforts contribute to both the economic and national security of the United States. It’s important to consider the crosscutting issues identified by the Task Force. The capture, separation, transportation, conversion, or sequestration of CO2 requires the input of energy. In the case of CO2 emissions reduction, sourcing the energy for these processes primarily from non-renewable sources would be counterproductive. The DOE’s diverse energy technology RD&D portfolio has contributed to reductions in the cost of renewable energy. The DOE will continue to support a robust clean energy RD&D portfolio to continue this trend. Collaboration among DOE programs, through topical crosscuts like SubTER, and among the DOE, national laboratories, academia, and industry, are helping to create an integrated system that can drive down costs for the technologies necessary to realize significant emissions reductions or negative emissions, as well as the clean energy technology that will power those activities. Implicit in these discussions is that international cooperation is essential for research development and implementation of energy efficiencies within a global market, and for realizing the subsequent and associated emissions reductions and/or negative emissions. Developing a robust, internationally recognized observation network ensures that all parties are meeting commitments to emissions reduction and supports international efforts in earth and climate monitoring that are necessary to understand the global environmental impacts of any effort at the 1 GtCO2 scale. This international challenge is as important, and possibly as difficult, as the technical challenges described above. The DOE can leverage its existing relationships with international partners through meetings and technical workshops to meet the technical and sociopolitical targets necessary to realize a 1 GtCO2/yr goal. A few Thoughts on the Climate Action Plan 2.0 Gary Latshaw, Chair of the Cupertino Sustainability Commission October 15, 2020 Importance of Accuracy and References in Report •Numbers should be rounded off to the appropriate number of significant figures •Sources of numbers should be well documented •Probable error should be stated •Any incomplete information and assumptions should be clearly stated •Phrases such as “50% reduction” should be clear so reader knows the reference point Implementation Efforts should be commensurate to the GHG Reduction •High Value Targets •Converting all buildings (residents, office spaces, industrial, etc.) to zero emissions •Most likely Electric Facilities •Partially Propane or Hydrogen? •Facilitating the conversion from Gas/Diesel to Electricity or hydrogen •EV charging stations •Converting Municipal Buildings, Equipment, and Vehicles to 100% zero emissions •Food Consumption •Plant-based diets •Avoiding Red Meet •Collection of Freon Outlier Projects •White Roofs, pavement •Use of adding Carbon to soil to minimize need for fertilizer? •Black Carbon from Fireplaces has a stong global warming potential and is very harmful •More Trees? •More of another plant? Outlier Projects from Others* •A “5-minute city” approach to zoning implemented in Copenhagen, Denmark that drastically reduced vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and made the city more walkable. •A carbon fee on buildings recently implemented in New York City •An announced plan to end the flow of natural gas in the City of Arcata, California and now being considered by Palo Alto. •2030 Climate Action Plan –Prepared by the Environmental Quality Commission; Adopted by City Council July 2020 (Resolution No.6575) Science Facts •Methane/natural gas –is a dangerous climate pollutant •Methane has a half-life of ~10 years •GWP in 20 years of 80 •Reduction in Methane will result in quick response •Nitrous Oxide (from fertilizer) has a half-life ~ 100 years •GWP in 20 years of ~300 •Various forms of Freon have half-life of 100’s of years •GWP in 20 years of ~1,000’s •GWP HFC -134a (hydrofluorocarbon) ~3800 for 14 years •Calculations of ”natural” solutions to carbon capture are controversial because of the multiple unknowns